October 27, 2016
        "The Circle" and "The Lost City of Z": Which potential 2016 contenders got bumped to 2017?                Natalie Portman, Janelle Monáe, Matthew McConaughey, Bryce Dallas Howard, Edgar Ramirez, Stacy Keach at Hollywood Film Awards                Viola Davis will be campaigned in Best Supporting Actress for "Fences"                Mel Gibson to be Honored with the Hollywood Director Award at the 20th Annual Hollywood Film Awards                Michael Moore drops a surprise new film with "Michael Moore in TrumpLand"                Hollywood Contenders: New Oscar Predictions for October                Nicole Kidman, Hugh Grant, Naomie Harris, Lily Collins get Honors at 20th Annual Hollywood Film Awards                "Manchester by the Sea" leads the Gotham Award nominations                Tom Ford, Marc Platt and Kenneth Lonergan to be Honored at 20th Annual Hollywood Film Awards                Tom Cruise is in his action hero comfort zone with "Jack Reacher: Never Go Back"                "Moonlight" could be A24's big Oscar horse this year                Ewan McGregor steps behind the camera with "American Pastoral"                Hollywood Contenders: A second crack at Golden Globe predictions for 2016                "The Accountant" seeks to help give Ben Affleck another blockbuster                85 countries will be competing for Best Foreign Language Feature nominations at the Oscars        

“Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part I” scores $61.2 million on first day

hollywoodnews.com: It’s a $61.2 million Friday for ‘Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part I.’ That’s the fifth-biggest single day of all time, behind the opening days of ‘Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen’ ($62 million), ‘The Dark Knight’ ($67 million), ‘Twilight Saga: Eclipse’ ($68 million), and ‘Twilight Saga: New Moon’ ($72 million). It’s the third biggest Friday of all, as ‘Transformers 2’ and ‘Twilight Saga: Eclipse’ both opened on a Wednesday. The number surpasses the $58 million that ‘Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince’ earned on its first day (a Wednesday), and it clobbers the $40 million that ‘Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire’ earned on its first Friday in November 2005 (the last time one of these films opened on a Friday). For a bit of perspective, nine years ago this weekend, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone broke the record for a single day gross with $32 million on its first Friday (it would break that record again with $33 million the next day). ‘Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part I’ nearly doubled that.

Some pundits are hollering about a $140-150 million weekend, and while I’d love to see that, the math doesn’t make it a guarantee. The seventh ‘Harry Potter’ film pulled down $24 million in midnight screenings, meaning that 39% of its daily take came from those 12:01am showings. That’s even more than the midnight-to-first day ratio for ‘Twilight Saga: New Moon,’ which grossed 36% of its first day ($26 million) in midnight showings. It also makes ‘Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows’ part I the most front-loaded midnight-to-first day picture of all time. So if’ Harry Potter 7′ performs like ‘Twilight 2,’ that would give it a $121 million opening weekend.

Yes, ‘Harry Potter’ is more of a family franchise but A) the prior sequels were pretty front-loaded too and B) this film is absolutely not pitched towards small kids. On the other hand, the last two Friday-opening Potter films had 2.5x opening day-to-weekend multiplier (‘Goblet of Fire’ – $40m/$102m) and a 2.4x multiplier (‘Prisoner of Azkaban ‘- $38m/$93m). Neither of those are mind-blowing holds, but they are better than the under-2x that the ‘Twilight Saga’ is famous for. It Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part I can pull off a Dark Knight-like 2.3x multiplier (no guarantee with such massive midnight front-loading), then the seventh picture can score a $141 million opening weekend.

To read more about this story go to Mendelson’s Memos

Scott Mendelson

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About Scott Mendelson

Mendelson's Memos: The basics - 30 years old, married with one child, currently residing in Woodland Hills, CA. I am simply a longtime film critic and pundit of sorts, especially in the realm of box office. The main content will be film reviews, trailer reviews, essays, and box office analysis and comparison. I also syndicate myself at The Huffington Post and Open Salon. I will update as often as my schedule allows. Yes, I'm on Facebook/Twitter/LinkIn, so feel free to find me there. All comments are appreciated, just be civil and try to keep a level discourse, as I will make every effort to do the same. Read more at Mendelson's Memos:

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