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Oscars: Two Possible Upsets Annette Bening and Geoffrey Rush

By Roger Friedman

HollywoodNews.com: Oscar ballots went out this week to Academy members. “The King’s Speech” seems like a lock for Best Picture. There are also some definites: Colin Firth for Best Actor, Melissa Leo for Best Supporting Actress. But what’s still fluid and in flux? Judging by past voting trends, there are two possible upsets: Best Supporting Actor and Best Actress.

In the former, Christian Bale was superlative as Dicky in “The Fighter.” But dial back to 1997 and “The English Patient.” Betting money had Lauren Bacall winning Best Supporting Actress for “The Mirror Has Two Faces.” The Hollywood legend had never won an Oscar, and there was a lot of support and sentiment for her. But “The English Patient,” like “The King’s Speech,” was a tsunami. It pulled Juliet Binoche in, surprising Bacall and her fans.

This could happen again. With Firth, the movie, and the original screenplay very solid, “The King’s Speech” may pull along Geoffrey Rush. Before Bale was on the scene, everyone thought Rush was a lock for Best Supporting Actor. It’s a long shot, but who knows? There are those who think Rush was equal to Firth in “The King’s Speech.” They may check off his name at the last minute. I wouldn’t blame them.

In Best Actress, Natalie Portman has lots of awards for “Black Swan.” She’s young, cute, and pregnant. She’ll have a long career. But there are plenty in the Academy who remember Annette Bening’s performances in “American Beauty” and “Being Julia,” her two best prior Oscar shots before “The Kids Are All Right”, as well as “The Grifters.” This should have been her year. How many times do we expect this woman to go through Oscar campaigns and come out a loser? Not only that: imagine the irony of Firth and Bening, who once co-starred in the dreadful “Valmont,” emerging together as winners years later. It’s delicious.

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About Roger Friedman

Roger Friedman began his Showbiz411.com column in April after 10 years with Fox News where he helped create Foxnews.com. Friedman’s prior experience on the Internet is with MSN’s Cinemania column. Friedman also wrote the Intelligencer column as a contributing editor at "New York Magazine," where he covered the O.J. Simpson criminal trial. In addition, Friedman has been involved in book publishing and filmmaking (Only the Strong Survive). For more about Roger go to Showbiz411.com

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  • February 6, 2011 | Permalink |

    In what way, praytell, was Valmont “dreadful”? Have you seen the movie, or are you just going by the box office returns?

  • February 6, 2011 | Permalink |

    Benning isn’t up for an award based on her past performances, She’s up for this one. And Portman somehow doesn’t deserve to win because she’s “cute, young and pregnant?” She gave a stellar performance- much better than Benning- and so deserves to win.

  • February 6, 2011 | Permalink |

    Honestly, it’ll be a travesty if Geoffrey Rush doesn’t receive the award for his role in “The King’s Speech.”

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