September 17, 2015
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Countdown to the Oscars: The Intrade predictions

James Franco and Anne Hathaway - Academy Awards Hosts

By Kim Palacios Forget lucky guesses. Intrade is in the business of statistically-supported predictions. It calls everything from political elections to financial market movements with astounding mathematical certainty. Each of its races is driven by a simple marketplace structure, a buying and selling of predicted outcome “contracts” that seems suspiciously close to betting.

Right now, Intrade users are trading on Oscar predictions, and the marketplace is well on its way to zeroing in on winners. Though the marketplace is fluid, here are where some Intrade predictions stand some two days before the awards:

With 89% certainty, it predicts that Natalie Portman will win Best Actress for “Black Swan”. For Best Supporting Actress, Melissa Leo for “The Fighter” (69%); For Best Actor Colin Firth for “The King’s Speech” (95%); For Best Supporting Actor, Christian Bale for “The Fighter” (90%).

Though Intrade offers no predictions around screenplay nods (for which Aaron Sorkin is a mean contender for Best Adapted Screenplay with “The Social Network”), it does predict the film winning in the Best Director category—David Fincher (60%). For Best Foreign Language film, “Biutiful” (48%) is the predicted winner. For Best Documentary, “Inside Job” (60%).

Predictions for the top honor, Best Picture, leans heavily to “The King’s Speech”, which is anticipated to be the winner with 80% confidence.

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About Kim Palacios

Kim Palacios is a San Francisco Bay Area transplant whose epicurean tendencies are matched only by her wanderlust. While not covering food, wine, and luxury travel for her column on, she guest writes for Travel Writers Exchange and a number of other varied-topic blogs. She is quadrilingual and holds an M.B.A. in Finance (neither of which she uses much these days). While not mourning the death of free markets and grumbling about the tax treatment of Californians, she enjoys film, and all things Twilight.

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