"Get Out" leads the Gotham Award nominations                'Blade Runner 2049,' 'The Disaster Artist' to be Honored at Hollywood Film Awards                Hollywood Contenders – Looking at Best Original Screenplay hopefuls                Todd Haynes explores the world of children with "Wonderstruck"                MUDBOUND and COCO to be Honored at Hollywood Film Awards                "The Killing of a Sacred Deer" pairs Colin Farrell and Nicole Kidman once again                "Wonder Wheel" closes NYFF with a commanding Kate Winslet turn                Sam Rockwell and Allison Janney to Receive Hollywood Supporting Actor and Hollywood Supporting Actress Awards at "Hollywood Film Awards"                Hollywood Contenders – Looking at Best Adapted Screenplay hopefuls                "Breathe" aims to return Andrew Garfield to Oscar contention                Mary J. Blige, Timothée Chalamet and the Cast of "I, Tonya" - Margot Robbie, Allison Janney, Sebastian Stan, Paul Walter Hauser to be honored at the 21st Annual "Hollywood Film Awards."                New Trailer drops for "Star Wars: The Last Jedi"                "Goodbye Christopher Robin" reveals the origins of Winnie the Pooh                Hollywood Contenders – Looking at Best Supporting Actress hopefuls                "The Florida Project" is one of the year's best films        

Pirates of the Caribbean looking good… $86 million

HollywoodNews.com: It’s a $35 million opening Friday for Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides. That’s expectedly below the opening Fridays for Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest ($55 million – a record at the time) and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World’s End ($42 million, despite $13 million in Thursday night sneaks). The film pulled in about 13% of its Friday total in midnight screenings ($4.7 million), which is slightly less than the 16% midnight haul of Dead Man’s Chest ($9 million of its $55 million Friday), even though Dead Man’s Chest obviously pulled in more midnight cash overall. Considering inflation and 3D/IMAX ticket price bumps, it stands to reason that attendance was way down compared to the prior sequels.

As it is, the second film (the only prior entry up to now with a pure Fri-Sun opening weekend) had a 2.4x weekend multiplier, which led to a then-record $135 million opening weekend. If the sequel follows suit, we get the predicted $86 million opening haul.

The third film is a more difficult comparison. If you purely count Fri-Sun, it had a 2.7 weekend multiplier ($114 million for Fri-Sun), which would give the fourth film $96 million for the weekend. But At World’s End made $13 million on those Thursday night sneaks, meaning that it basically made $56 million on its first 1.25 days. Using that, it means that the film pulled in over 1/2 its opening weekend in just the first 1.25 days (and then it did another $25 million on Memorial Day Monday). So the safest bet is to split the pure Fri-Sun difference, hope for strong kiddie-driven matinée attendance (poor kids…), and guess a 2.55 weekend multiplier, which will give the film $89 million for the weekend, good enough for 2011’s top opening haul thus far. In better news for humanity, Bridesmaids only dropped about 24% from last weekend (about $6 million), setting it on course for a $20 million second weekend.

To read more go to Scott Mendelson

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