October 23, 2016
        Hollywood Contenders: New Oscar Predictions for October                Nicole Kidman, Hugh Grant, Naomie Harris, Lily Collins get Honors at 20th Annual Hollywood Film Awards                "Manchester by the Sea" leads the Gotham Award nominations                Tom Ford, Marc Platt and Kenneth Lonergan to be Honored at 20th Annual Hollywood Film Awards                Tom Cruise is in his action hero comfort zone with "Jack Reacher: Never Go Back"                "Moonlight" could be A24's big Oscar horse this year                Ewan McGregor steps behind the camera with "American Pastoral"                Hollywood Contenders: A second crack at Golden Globe predictions for 2016                "The Accountant" seeks to help give Ben Affleck another blockbuster                85 countries will be competing for Best Foreign Language Feature nominations at the Oscars                Tom Hanks to receive Hollywood Actor Award for "Sully" @ Hollywood Film Awards                "Certain Women" showcases Laura Dern, Kristen Stewart, and Michelle Williams                Ben Affleck is perhaps Hollywood's biggest and most diverse superstar                "The Birth of a Nation" looks to survive controversy and contend for awards                "The Girl on the Train" hopes to transport Emily Blunt to the Oscar race        

“Breaking Dawn part I” tops Thanksgiving weekend – Weekend Box Office

By Scott Mendelson

HollywoodNews.com: As expected, Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part I (essay) topped the holiday weekend box office as three new family films (including The Muppets) and three limited releases more-or-less cannibalized each other. Once again, Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn part I is playing so much like Twilight Saga: New Moon that there is little need for analysis. The fourth film in the series grossed $42 million over the Fri-Sun portion of the weekend, which is a 70% drop from last weekend. Still, the film’s ten-day total is now at $221 million. The percentage drop (-70%) and second-weekend total ($42 million) is identical to New Moon, but the older film’s 10-day total was slightly heftier $230 million. Still, Breaking Dawn part I has a slightly higher 10-day total than last year’s Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows part I ($219 million) and Twilight Saga: Eclipse ($214 million), and the fact that it’s falling behind the above films only means that it will have to settle for ‘just’ $270-280 million in domestic box office. We should all fail so well.

The big opener of the weekend was The Muppets (review). All eyes were watching this much-hyped franchise revival, and the fans did not let Kermit and company down. The picture, which Disney wisely spent just $45 million to produce, grossed $29.5 million on Fri-Sun and $42 million over its five-day opening. The film (deservedly) scored an A from Cinemascore, although I don’t know the demo stats yet (IE – did kids actually choose to see it and/or like it, or were the jerks dragged by their parents?). As it is, the film is already the second biggest grossing Muppet movie of all time, out of seven, coming in under the $65 million gross of The Muppet Movie back in 1979. Inflation-wise, The Muppets will have to gross $90 million to achieve that rank, although surpassing the adjusted-for-inflation $206 million gross of The Muppet Movie is pretty unlikely. In even better (if arbitrary) news, the utter lack of any wide releases next weekend plus the likely downward plunge for Breaking Dawn part I means that The Muppets will likely top the box office next weekend. So there clearly is an audience for this 35-year old franchise, all Disney has to do now is not overestimate their appeal. Point being, if Disney decides to make a film sequel (as opposed to a new TV series or what-have-you), they shouldn’t be spending $100 million on it.

As some of you may notice, I try to find something positive to say about most films in regards to box office, mainly to counter-balance certain pundits who scream “FAILURE” at every opportunity as if it gives them pleasure (which is probably does). Having said that, Happy Feet Two, in terms of likely final result versus budget, is an unmitigated disaster. The $135 million (there was your first mistake…) cartoon has amassed just $43 million in ten days. It’s not only trailing the original Happy Feet (which opened on the same weekend five years ago) by $56 million in respective ten-day totals, it’s trailing pretty much every kid-centric pre-Thanksgiving day release (The Cat in the Hat, The Grinch, Spongebob Squarepants, etc) in modern history. Yes, overseas numbers may eventually save the day, but Warner Bros. severely overestimated both the fondness for this franchise. The original was a huge hit ($198 million domestic) and an inexplicable Oscar winner for Best Animated Film (mainly for the trippy final third), but do you know anyone who remembers it with any fondness or watches it with any regularity in their household?

The bad news continued with the next major new release, Arthur Christmas. The film debuted with $12 million over the Fri-Sun period and $17 million over the holiday. Considering it was up against far more established properties, it’s not a terrible debut. But, the Aardman film cost $85 million and isn’t making much of an impact in its foreign engagements either. Still, it’s the only Christmas-centric movie playing over the next month and it’s a pretty cute and clever cartoon. Compared to The Muppets and Hugo, it’s a bit insignificant (it’s similar to An American Tail: Feivel Goes West opening against Beauty and the Beast), but it’s pleasant and entertaining and may pick up steam as the casual family moviegoing choice for those who have already seen The Muppets or Puss in Boots (now at $136 million) and are intimidated by Hugo (don’t be, your kids are smarter than you think). The next two weekends will tell the tale.

The last wide release was Martin Scorsese’s Hugo (review), which debuted to $11.4 million over the Fri-Sun portion and $15.4 million over the long holiday. The film was only playing on 1,200 screens so it has a pretty terrific per-screen average of nearly $10,000 per screen over the Fri-Sun portion. But this film cost around $140 million, so Paramount is going to need some uncommonly strong legs, plus big overseas business to put this one in the black. Both of these things are possible, as the Paris-set period film is one of the finest pictures of the year and has absolutely jaw-dropping 3D photography that puts pretty much every such effort to shame (even James Cameron admitted as much). On principle, I’d say that $140 million is far too much to spend on a 1930s Paris-set kids-centric drama with no real stars and a somewhat limited audience. On the other hand, the money is absolutely on the screen and it’s a terrific piece of high-quality entertainment. So even if the film doesn’t pick up steam in the weeks ahead, we can pretend that Paramount used some of its Transformers profits for this one and call it an ‘art-over commerce’ mitzvah.

Going slightly wide in 390 theaters was Alexander Payne’s The Descendants (review and essay). The Oscar contender grossed a solid $9 million over the five-day weekend and is now over the $10 million mark. It’s too early to guess if this will come anywhere near the $83 million gross of Clooney’s Up in the Air, as this one went a little wider a little faster. On the plus side, it’s expansion and performance somewhat more closely matches Payne’s last picture, Sideways. That film, which eventually grossed $71 million, was on 497 screens by Thanksgiving and had amassed $9.9 million. Two Weinstein Oscar contenders opened in limited release over the weekend as well. My Week With Marilyn, which is getting rave reviews more for Michelle Williams’s performance as Marilyn Monroe than for the film itself, opened with $1.7 million on 244 screens, for an okay $7,266 per screen average. Best Picture contender The Artist opened on four screens and scored $52,000 on each of those screens. Both will expand in the coming weeks as they try to get Oscar love and box office glory.

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About Scott Mendelson

Mendelson's Memos: The basics - 30 years old, married with one child, currently residing in Woodland Hills, CA. I am simply a longtime film critic and pundit of sorts, especially in the realm of box office. The main content will be film reviews, trailer reviews, essays, and box office analysis and comparison. I also syndicate myself at The Huffington Post and Open Salon. I will update as often as my schedule allows. Yes, I'm on Facebook/Twitter/LinkIn, so feel free to find me there. All comments are appreciated, just be civil and try to keep a level discourse, as I will make every effort to do the same. Read more at Mendelson's Memos:

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