"What They Had" finds welcome humor in a tragic setting                Glenn Close, Hugh Jackman and Director Damien Chazelle to Receive Hollywood Film Awards                Ben Foster continues a hot streak with “Galveston”                Paul Dano and Zoe Kazan have captured brilliance with "Wildlife"                Amandla Stenberg, John David Washington, Yalitza Aparicio, Felix Van Groeningen & Crazy Rich Asians To Receive Hollywood Film Awards                David Gordon Green puts his stamp on "Halloween" and crafts a terrific sequel                "Can You Ever Forgive Me?" deliciously pairs Richard E. Grant with Melissa McCarthy                "22 July" sees Paul Greengrass effectively depict another tragic historical event                Timothée Chalamet and Rachel Weisz to be Honored at Hollywood Film Awards                Steve Carell and Timothée Chalamet are gunning for awards with "Beautiful Boy"                "Bad Times At The El Royale" is overstuffed yet pulpy fun from Drew Goddard                87 films will contend for Best Foreign Language Feature this year                "First Man" is another stunning achievement for Damien Chazelle and Ryan Gosling                Updated Academy Award predictions for early October                Bradley Cooper makes a stunning directorial debut with the Oscar frontrunner "A Star Is Born"        

Oscar® Forecast: Look for the wealth to be spread around


If the numbers hold true, look for the wealth to be spread around at the Oscars® this year.

I have created a statistical model to predict the Oscars®, using numerical data from critic scores, other awards shows, and guild awards over the past 15 years. This method is entirely mathematical: no personal hunches are taken into account. Last year, my model correctly predicted all eight of the major categories.

This year’s final tallies show that six movies will take home multiple awards this Sunday. On the flip side, no movie will win more than three for the first time since 2005.

The “big winner,” if any movie even deserves that title, will most likely be Argo, claiming Best Picture, Best Adapted Screenplay, and Best Film Editing.

In a very tight Best Director race, Ang Lee (Life of Pi) is the slight favorite. However, Life of Pi is only expected to win two other awards – Best Original Score and Best Visual Effects – despite its 11 nominations.

The acting awards are not as close, mathematically speaking. Check off Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln), and Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables) on your Oscar ballots without too much worry.

The biggest lock goes to an often overlooked category. Searching for Sugarman is expected to win Best Documentary with 80%, the best odds for any nominee this year.

Other races will be a lot closer. Skyfall, at 30%, leads Best Cinematography over Lincoln (29%) and Life of Pi (27%) by the slimmest of margins. Don’t get up for more popcorn during that award. And Anna Karenina, expected to win for Best Production Design and Best Costume Design, is similarly unsafe in both of those categories.

For the full list of predictions, please see oscarforecast.wordpress.com

Where exactly do these numbers come from? I explain the methodology at oscarforecast.wordpress.com

Photo by Oscars.com

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2 Comments

  • February 18, 2013 | Permalink |

    “Argo” is an Adapted Screenplay.

  • February 18, 2013 | Permalink |

    You basically reiterated the frontunners from everywhere else.
    You’re crazy to think Lawrence and Jones are locks. The only locks are DDL, Hathaway, and Visual effects.

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