Steve McQueen and a phenomenal ensemble cast help make "Widows" look effortless                "The Ballad of Buster Scruggs" offers something for every type of Coen Brothers fan                Updated Academy Award predictions for early November                Review Round-Up: "Dr. Seuss' The Grinch", "El Angel" "The Long Dumb Road", and "Outlaw King"                Taking a look at potential Best Documentary Feature contenders                "The Front Runner" is a terrific and timely film for right around Election Day                Hollywood Film Awards Marked the Launch of Awards Season                Taking a first crack at Golden Globe predictions                “The Favourite” and “The Front Runner”: Films to see in November                Awkwafina to Host 22nd Hollywood Film Awards                Review Round-Up: "Bodied", "The Nutcracker and the Four Realms", and "The Other Side of the Wind"                Rosamund Pike is a force to be reckoned with in "A Private War"                Black Panther, Incredibles 2 to Receive Hollywood Film Awards                "Boy Erased" has Joel Edgerton stretching himself as a prestige filmmaker                Rami Malek does his best to elevate "Bohemian Rhapsody" from being a standard biopic        

Oscar Forecast: And the Odds are…

How about the movie awards? Below the numbers based on Ben Zauzmer’s algorithm:

-Odds that Best Picture and Best Director go to the same movie: 8%
-Odds that Argo becomes the second film ever to win Best Picture and nothing else: 7%
-Odds that Silver Linings Playbook becomes the fourth film ever to sweep the “Big Five”: 0.02%

How about the acting awards? Most critics, as well as my numbers, agree that Daniel Day-Lewis and Jennifer Lawrence are the favorites, but let’s dig deeper to learn some more interesting facts:

-Odds that Lincoln becomes the third film ever to win three acting awards: 5%
-Odds that Silver Linings Playbook becomes the first movie to win all four acting awards: 0.04%

So a clean sweep isn’t too likely for David O. Russell’s love story. But some other categories that typically go together have a bit more of a chance at honoring the same movie:

-Odds that either Life of Pi or Skyfall wins Best Original Score and Best Original Song: 8%
-Odds that Argo, Life of Pi, or Skyfall wins Best Sounds Editing and Best Sound Mixing: 10%
-Odds that Anna Karenina, Lincoln, or Life of Pi wins Best Production Design and Best Cinematography: 16%
-Odds that Life of Pi sweeps the six technical categories: 0.009%

If you’re into more dispiriting predictions, we can calculate facts about losses, not just wins:

-Odds that Lincoln breaks the all-time record for Oscar losses, going 0/12: 3%
-Odds that Django Unchained goes 0/5: 44%

Ouch. It seems that Quentin Tarantino has nearly a 50/50 shot of going home without any trophies. Anyway, here are a few more miscellaneous ones, because this is too much fun to stop:

-Odds that either Moonrise Kingdom or Flight wins Best Adapted Screenplay, even without a Best Picture nomination: 7%
-Odds that a European country wins Best Foreign Film: 89%
-Odds that Anna Karenina wins all four of its nominations: 0.1%

Do you have any similar questions that you’d like me to calculate? Just leave a comment and I’ll respond with the percent chance of your scenario coming true.

To read more about the Oscar predictions visit oscarforecast.wordpress.com/predictions

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