Predicting the Palme d’Or at Cannes

2014 Cannes Film Festival Poster Marcello Mastroianni 600x384

HOLLYWOOD ENTERTAINMENT NETWORK: Over at the Cannes Film Festival tomorrow, the awards announcements will take place, leading up to the crowning of this year’s Palme d’Or winning film. There doesn’t seem to be a movie there that’s the obvious frontrunner, so we have a situation where the festival jury (led by filmmaker Jane Campion) could go in any number of directions. They have American Oscar bait, new works from Cannes favorites, and a whole host of other flicks to choose from. I have to say, this year is probably one of the more wide open ones that we’ve seen in a bit. I’ve never been less confident in Cannes awards predictions than I am now, but we’ll press on anyway…

Before we get to the big award, I’ll speculate a bit on the acting, directing, and screenplay awards. For Actor, I think it’ll be the high profile selection of Steve Carrell for Foxcatcher, though Timothy Spall could just as easily win for Mr. Turner as well. With Actress, Marion Cotillard seems like the far out frontrunner for Two Days, One Night here, though if you want a potential upset, look for Julianne Moore in David Cronenberg’s Maps to the Stars, Kristen Stewart in Olivier Assayas’ Clouds of Sils Maria, or Hilary Swank in Tommy Lee Jones’ The Homesman. Director is almost like another runner up prize, so something that loses the Palme could win here. For that I have Xavier Dolan for Mommy, though any of the other contenders are possible, especially Bennett Miller or Mike Leigh. Lastly, I’m sort of at a loss for Screenplay, so I’ll go with what I’ve heard is the likely winner in Nuri Bilge Ceylan’s Winter Sleep, though watch out for Foxcatcher here as well.

Now, on to the Golden Palm. It seems to be a competition between Foxcatcher, Leviathan, Mommy, Mr. Turner, and Winter Sleep, though some have speculated that Two Days, One Night could be a spoiler. I suspect that at least one of those will also wind up as either the Grand Prix (Second Place) or Jury Prize (Third Place) winner, but I have no good clue as to which one, though if a gun was to my head, I’d say maybe Leigh’s Mr. Turner comes in second and Miller’s Foxcatcher comes in third. By that line of thinking, that would have Dolan’s Mommy and Zvyagintsev’s Leviathan fighting it out for the big one. Since the Dardennes have already one, I’d count out their movie, at least here. A lot of folks are predicting Leviathan, so I’ll tag along there, though part of me wonders if an out of the blue win for Jones’ The Homesman isn’t out of the question?

Here now are my Cannes predictions:

Palme d’Or: Leviathan (alternate: Mommy)

Grand Prix: Mr. Turner (alternate: Winter Sleep)

Jury Prize: Foxcatcher (alternate: The Homesman)

Director: Xavier Dolan – Mommy (alternate: Bennet Miller – Foxcatcher)

Actor: Steve Carrell – Foxcatcher (alternate: Timothy Spall – Mr. Turner)

Actress: Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night (alternate: Kristen Stewart – Clouds of Sils Maria)

Screenplay: Nuri Bilge Ceylan – Winter Sleep (alternate: E. Max Frye and Dan Futterman – Foxcatcher)

Now, all that’s left to do is wait and see what Campion’s jury comes up with. Luckily, we won’t have long to wait, so sit tight for the Cannes awards results!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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