Todd Haynes explores the world of children with "Wonderstruck"                MUDBOUND and COCO to be Honored at Hollywood Film Awards                "The Killing of a Sacred Deer" pairs Colin Farrell and Nicole Kidman once again                "Wonder Wheel" closes NYFF with a commanding Kate Winslet turn                Sam Rockwell and Allison Janney to Receive Hollywood Supporting Actor and Hollywood Supporting Actress Awards at "Hollywood Film Awards"                Hollywood Contenders – Looking at Best Adapted Screenplay hopefuls                "Breathe" aims to return Andrew Garfield to Oscar contention                Mary J. Blige, Timothée Chalamet and the Cast of "I, Tonya" - Margot Robbie, Allison Janney, Sebastian Stan, Paul Walter Hauser to be honored at the 21st Annual "Hollywood Film Awards."                New Trailer drops for "Star Wars: The Last Jedi"                "Goodbye Christopher Robin" reveals the origins of Winnie the Pooh                Hollywood Contenders – Looking at Best Supporting Actress hopefuls                "The Florida Project" is one of the year's best films                Trailer for "Wonder Wheel" showcases one of Woody Allen's most visual efforts to date                “Blade Runner 2049” and “Jigsaw”: Films to see in October                Hollywood Contenders – A first crack at 2017 Golden Globe predictions        

An October Oscar Predictions Update

Oscar nominations 2013 600x 192
Just as I said last month…oscar predictions are a funny thing. Sometimes you have to just update them wholesale in order to not be way off the mark, and sometimes they only require a relatively small bit of tinkering to be on the right track. That’s the nature of the beast, one where a single new contender can upend the race, one way or another. With only a day to go until Paul Thomas Anderson’s Inherent Vice is finally seen (yours truly will be there at the New York Film Festival), we’re waiting for a new contender to change the landscape, what with Gone Girl last week turning out great, but not as a game changer. In any event, it’s time for a predictions update!

If you look at what I have in this particular update, you’ll see a lot of what I had a few weeks ago, with small changes here and there. The big new thing I have for you all is the addition of who I have next in line in the major categories. This will give you a better idea of what the larger landscape looks like. I’ll obviously need to update this in a few weeks, particularly after processing Inherent Vice, but that’s one step ahead of the game. Until then, the educated guesswork will just have to continue a little bit more.

Well, enough talk though. I know you all just want to see how the predictions have changed, even if only a little bit, so let me oblige you. Here now are my most up to date Academy Award predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. Gone Girl
2. Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Foxcatcher
4. The Imitation Game
5. Boyhood
6. The Theory of Everything
7. Whiplash
8. Unbroken
9. American Sniper
10. Interstellar

Next in line: 11. Men, Women & Children 12. Inherent Vice 13. Into the Woods 14. Fury 15. Selma 16. Mr. Turner 17. Rosewater 18. A Most Violent Year 19. Wild 20. Nightcrawler

BEST DIRECTOR

1. David Fincher – Gone Girl
2. Alejandro González Iñárritu – Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher
4. Richard Linklater – Boyhood
5. Clint Eastwood – American Sniper

Next in line: 6. Christopher Nolan – Interstellar 7. Morten Tyldum – The Imitation Game 8. Damien Chazelle – Whiplash 9. James Marsh – The Theory of Everything 10. Angelina Jolie – Unbroken

BEST ACTOR

1. Michael Keaton – Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
2. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
3. Steve Carell – Foxcatcher
4. Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything
5. Bradley Cooper – American Sniper

Next in line: 6. Bill Murray – St. Vincent 7. Ben Affleck – Gone Girl 8. Jack O’Connell – Unbroken 9. Joaquin Phoenix – Inherent Vice 10. Timothy Spall – Mr. Turner

BEST ACTRESS

1. Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything
2. Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
3. Julianne Moore – Still Alice
4. Amy Adams – Big Eyes
5. Reese Witherspoon – Wild

Next in line: 6. Shailene Woodley – The Fault in Our Stars 7. Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year 8. Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night 9. Hilary Swank – The Homesman 10. Scarlett Johansson – Under the Skin

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. J.K. Simmons – Whiplash
2. Edward Norton – Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher
4. Ethan Hawke – Boyhood
5. Josh Brolin – Inherent Vice

Next in line: 6. Tim Roth – Selma 7. Robert Duvall – The Judge 8. Logan Lerman – Fury 9. Johnny Depp – Into the Woods 10. Adam Sandler – Men, Women & Children

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
2. Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game
3. Emma Stone – Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
4. Laura Dern – Wild
5. Katherine Waterston – Inherent Vice

Next in line: 6. Meryl Streep – Into the Woods 7. Jessica Chastain – Interstellar 8. Carmen Ejogo – Selma 9. Anna Kendrick – Into the Woods 10. Carrie Coon – Gone Girl

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Boyhood
2. Foxcatcher
3. Mr. Turner
4. Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
5. Whiplash

Next in line: 6. Interstellar 7. A Most Violent Year 8. Selma 9. The Grand Budapest Hotel 10. Begin Again

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Gone Girl
2. The Imitation Game
3. American Sniper
4. The Theory of Everything
5. Men, Women & Children

Next in line: 6. Inherent Vice 7. Unbroken 8. Rosewater 9. Wild 10. The Fault in Our Stars

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. The Lego Movie
2. How to Train Your Dragon 2
3. The Boxtrolls
4. Big Hero 6
5. The Tale of Princess Kaguya

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Interstellar
2. Unbroken
3. Into the Woods
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. Mr. Turner

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Gone Girl
2. Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Interstellar
4. Unbroken
5. Foxcatcher

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Exodus: Gods and Kings
2. Into the Woods
3. Unbroken
4. Fury
5. Noah

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Gone Girl
2. Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Foxcatcher
4. Boyhood
5. Interstellar

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Foxcatcher
2. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
3. Tusk

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Interstellar
2. Into the Woods
3. Godzilla
4. Fury
5. Transformers: Age of Extinction

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Interstellar
2. Into the Woods
3. Godzilla
4. Exodus: Gods and Kings
5. Fury

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Interstellar
2. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
3. Guardians of the Galaxy
4. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
5. Snowpiercer

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Gone Girl
2. The Imitation Game
3. Interstellar
4. The Theory of Everything
5. Unbroken

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Begin Again
2. The Lego Movie
3. Muppets Most Wanted
4. The Fault in Our Stars
5. Joe

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Life Itself
2. The Look of Silence
3. Seymour: An Introduction
4. The Unknown Known
5. Alive Inside

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Blue is the Warmest Color
2. Mommy
3. Two Days, One Night
4. Leviathan
5. Ida

Later this month I’ll have some brand new predictions up, so stay tuned as usual for those!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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