A November Oscar Predictions Update

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The calendar has turned to November folks, so now we’re getting down to the nitty gritty of Oscar predictions. Precursor awards have begun to be given out, so expect the Academy Award picture to slowly begin to clear up. That doesn’t mean that from now on we suddenly know how the whole thing will go, but we’re closing in on the point where things should begin to make more sense. We can still guess to our heart’s content, but certain long shots just won’t happen and certain likelihoods are even more likely now. That’s just the name of the game. By nomination morning I should have things pretty accurate, but for now, it’s still a matter of fine tuning. This is just the first phase of the game too, keep that in mind. Once the nominations are announced, the whole situation changes and it becomes all about figuring out winners. Nominees are one thing…winners are a whole other.

For this particular update, I tried to decide if there were any surprises to consider. For one thing, I backed away from American Sniper quite a bit. On the flip side, I’ve gotten pretty bold with Interstellar, including Christopher Nolan’s first Best Director nomination. I also am sticking with my next in line bonus little thing in each category, since it give you all a further look at what I’m thinking as the weeks progress. Knowing the top ten in a given category (double that in Best Picture, obviously) can help assess the whole situation, so I think it’s a help overall.

In terms of my winners, I just want to say once again that I think just about every race is still wide open (give or take Best Supporting Actor) and I refuse to predict a split between Best Picture and Best Director this early in the game, so when I switch one, I have to change the other as well. As such, you’ll see a new winner or two throughout the big eight categories, but mostly the status quo from last time around. They could just be temporary, but time will tell in that regard. For now, that’s just how I see the race…

Well, enough talk though my friends. I know you all just want to see how the predictions have changed, even if only a little bit, so let me oblige you. Here now are my most up to date Academy Award predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. Boyhood
2. Interstellar
3. The Imitation Game
4. Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
5. Whiplash
6. The Theory of Everything
7. Unbroken
8. Gone Girl
9. Foxcatcher
10. Rosewater

Next in line: 11. Selma 12. A Most Violent Year 13. Into the Woods 14. Fury 15. American Sniper 16. Inherent Vice 17. Mr. Turner 18. Wild 19. Nightcrawler 20. Citizenfour

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Richard Linklater – Boyhood
2. Christopher Nolan – Interstellar
3. Alejandro González Iñárritu – Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
4. Morten Tyldum – The Imitation Game
5. Damien Chazelle – Whiplash

Next in line: 6. David Fincher – Gone Girl 7. Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher 8. Angelina Jolie – Unbroken 9. James Marsh – The Theory of Everything 10. Jon Stewart – Rosewater

BEST ACTOR

1. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
2. Michael Keaton – Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything
4. Matthew McConaughey – Interstellar
5. Steve Carell – Foxcatcher

Next in line: 6. Jack O’Connell – Unbroken 7. Bill Murray – St. Vincent 8. David Oyelowo – Selma 9. Jake Gyllenhaal – Nightcrawler 10. Bradley Cooper – American Sniper

BEST ACTRESS

1. Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything
2. Julianne Moore – Still Alice
3. Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
4. Reese Witherspoon – Wild
5. Shailene Woodley – The Fault in Our Stars

Next in line: 6. Jessica Chastain – The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby 7. Amy Adams – Big Eyes 8. Hilary Swank – The Homesman 9. Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night 10. Anne Hathaway – Interstellar

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. J.K. Simmons – Whiplash
2. Edward Norton – Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher
4. Ethan Hawke – Boyhood
5. Robert Duvall – The Judge

Next in line: 6. Josh Brolin – Inherent Vice 7. Tim Roth – Selma 8. Logan Lerman – Fury 9. Johnny Depp – Into the Woods 10. Tyler Perry – Gone Girl

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
2. Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game
3. Emma Stone – Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
4. Meryl Streep – Into the Woods
5. Laura Dern – Wild

Next in line: 6. Katherine Waterston – Inherent Vice 7. Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year or Interstellar 8. Carrie Coon – Gone Girl 9. Rene Russo – Nightcrawler 10. Carmen Ejogo – Selma

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Boyhood
2. Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Interstellar
4. Whiplash
5. Foxcatcher

Next in line: 6. Mr. Turner 7. A Most Violent Year 8. Selma 9. The Grand Budapest Hotel 10. Begin Again

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Imitation Game
2. Unbroken
3. Gone Girl
4. The Theory of Everything
5. Rosewater

Next in line: 6. American Sniper 7. The Fault in Our Stars 8. Wild 9. Inherent Vice 10. Men, Women & Children

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. The Lego Movie
2. How to Train Your Dragon 2
3. Big Hero 6
4. The Boxtrolls
5. The Tale of Princess Kaguya

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Interstellar
2. Unbroken
3. Into the Woods
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. Mr. Turner

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Unbroken
2. Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Interstellar
4. Gone Girl
5. Foxcatcher

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Exodus: Gods and Kings
2. Into the Woods
3. Unbroken
4. Fury
5. Noah

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Gone Girl
2. Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Boyhood
4. Interstellar
5. The Imitation Game

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Foxcatcher
2. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
3. Tusk

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Interstellar
2. Into the Woods
3. Godzilla
4. Fury
5. Transformers: Age of Extinction

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Interstellar
2. Into the Woods
3. Godzilla
4. Exodus: Gods and Kings
5. Fury

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Interstellar
2. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
3. Guardians of the Galaxy
4. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
5. Snowpiercer

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Interstellar
2. The Imitation Game
3. Gone Girl
4. The Theory of Everything
5. Unbroken

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Begin Again
2. The Lego Movie
3. Muppets Most Wanted
4. The Fault in Our Stars
5. Joe

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Citizenfour
2. Life Itself
3. Red Army
4. Alive Inside
5. Jodorowsky’s Dune

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Wild Tales
2. Mommy
3. Two Days, One Night
4. Ida
5. Leviathan

Later this month I’ll have some brand new predictions up, so stay tuned as usual for those!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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