"Ralph Breaks the Internet" is a clever and winning sequel for Disney                Alfonso Cuarón tells a deeply personal story with absolute precision in "Roma"                "Creed II" is an outstanding sequel and one of the year's best films                Strong showings for "Eighth Grade" and "You Were Never Really Here" highlight the Independent Spirit Award nominations                Review: Round-Up: "At Eternity's Gate", "The Clovehitch Killer", "Jonathan", and "The Last Race"                "Green Book" is a crowd pleaser of the highest order and a definite Oscar contender                Steve McQueen and a phenomenal ensemble cast help make "Widows" look effortless                "The Ballad of Buster Scruggs" offers something for every type of Coen Brothers fan                Updated Academy Award predictions for early November                Review Round-Up: "Dr. Seuss' The Grinch", "El Angel" "The Long Dumb Road", and "Outlaw King"                Taking a look at potential Best Documentary Feature contenders                "The Front Runner" is a terrific and timely film for right around Election Day                Hollywood Film Awards Marked the Launch of Awards Season                Taking a first crack at Golden Globe predictions                “The Favourite” and “The Front Runner”: Films to see in November        

“The Big Short”: An October Oscar predictions update

Steve Carell The Big Short
Happy Friday friends! It’s not only the end of the week, but the beginning of the month of October as well, so obviously it’s time for a new set of Academy Award predictions. It’ll be an interesting new set as well, considering the things that I’ve seen since last time. Honestly, with Miles Ahead debuting tomorrow at the New York Film Festival, the list of unseen titles is shrinking by the day. As such, there’s hopefully a bit of clarity in the race, while also suggesting which categories will be the stronger ones this year and which ones will be the weaker ones (in fact, look for a piece on that next week). Right now though, I’ll give you a quick preview and then dive right into these Oscar predictions!

The big things to keep in mind with this Academy Award nominations update is that I’ve seen Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Son of Saul, Steve Jobs, and more firsthand. That can help clarify things a bit. What’s most noticeable here this time around is that Spotlight and Steve Jobs seem like the frontrunners for the major non acting categories right now (Aaron Sorkin especially seems like he could have Best Adapted Screenplay in the bag). I’ve also dropped Bridge of Spies from most categories, just to see how that feels. The new addition of note here is The Big Short, obviously, which I think could be our late year surprise. A lot will depend on how things like The Hateful Eight, Joy, and The Revenant do, but assuming they’re up to snuff, the one unexpected hit could be The Big Short. We’ll see, but it’s something to keep in mind…

Here now is how I see the Oscar nominations going down, as of today:

BEST PICTURE

1. Spotlight
2. Steve Jobs
3. The Revenant
4. The Hateful Eight
5. Brooklyn
6. Room
7. The Martian
8. Joy
9. The Big Short
10. The Danish Girl

Next in line: 11. Carol 12. Bridge of Spies 13. Inside Out 14. The Light Between Oceans (possible 2016 release) 15. Son of Saul 16. Beasts of No Nation 17. Sicario 18. Miles Ahead (possible 2016 release) 19. Our Brand is Crisis 20. Truth 21. By the Sea 22. Macbeth 23. Suffragette 24. The Walk 25. In the Heart of the Sea 26. Trainwreck 27. Freeheld 28. The End of the Tour 29. Anomalisa 30. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Tom McCarthy – Spotlight
2. Danny Boyle – Steve Jobs
3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu – The Revenant
4. Quentin Tarantino – The Hateful Eight
5. Ridley Scott – The Martian

Next in line: 6. John Crowley – Brooklyn 7. David O. Russell – Joy 8. Todd Haynes – Carol 9. Steven Spielberg – Bridge of Spies 10. Lenny Abrahamson – Room 11. Tom Hooper – The Danish Girl 12. Derek Cianfrance – The Light Between Oceans (possible 2016 release) 13. Cary Fukunaga – Beasts of No Nation 14. Adam McKay – The Big Short 15. George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road 16. Angelina Jolie – By the Sea 17. László Nemes – Son of Saul 18. Don Cheadle – Miles Ahead (possible 2016 release) 19. Robert Zemeckis – The Walk 20. David Gordon Green – Our Brand is Crisis

BEST ACTOR

1. Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
2. Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
3. Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl
4. Johnny Depp – Black Mass
5. Matt Damon – The Martian

Next in line: 6. Tom Hanks – Bridge of Spies 7. Don Cheadle – Miles Ahead (possible 2016 release) 8. Steve Carell – The Big Short 9. Tom Courtenay – 45 Years 10. Jake Gyllenhaal – Southpaw 11. Paul Dano – Love & Mercy (Could go Supporting) 12. Joseph Gordon-Levitt – The Walk 13. Tom Hiddleston – I Saw the Light 14. Bryan Cranston – Trumbo 15. Michael Caine – Youth 16. Robert Redford – Truth (Could go Supporting) 17. Abraham Atta – Beasts of No Nation 18. Christian Bale – The Big Short (Could go Supporting) 19. Géza Röhrig – Son of Saul 20. Brad Pitt – By the Sea

BEST ACTRESS

1. Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
2. Brie Larson – Room
3. Cate Blanchett – Carol or Truth
4. Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn
5. Lily Tomlin – Grandma

Next in line: 6. Carey Mulligan – Suffragette 7. Sandra Bullock – Our Brand is Crisis 8. Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years 9. Emily Blunt – Sicario 10. Blythe Danner – I’ll See You in My Dreams 11. Angelina Jolie – By the Sea 12. Marion Cotillard – MacBeth 13. Julianne Moore – Freehold (Could go Supporting) 14. Maggie Smith – The Lady in the Van 15. Meryl Streep – Ricki and the Flash 16. Amy Schumer – Trainwreck 17. Juliette Binoche – Clouds of Sils Maria 18. Olivia Wilde – Meadowland 19. Charlize Theron – Mad Max: Fury Road (Could go Supporting) 20. Melissa McCarthy – Spy

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight
2. Bruce Dern – The Hateful Eight
3. Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation
4. Jason Segel – The End of the Tour
5. Seth Rogen – Steve Jobs

Next in line: 6. Kurt Russell – The Hateful Eight 7. Michael Keaton – Spotlight 8. Joel Edgerton – Black Mass 9. Tom Hardy – The Revenant 10. Sam Elliot – Grandma 11. John Cusack – Love & Mercy (Could go Lead) 12. Ryan Gosling – The Big Short 13. Benicio del Toro – Sicario 14. Bradley Cooper – Joy 15. Samuel L. Jackson – The Hateful Eight 16. Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies 17. Harvey Keitel – Youth 18. Jacob Tremblay – Room 19. Emory Cohen – Brooklyn 20. Jeff Daniels – Steve Jobs

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
2. Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
3. Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
4. Rooney Mara – Carol
5. Rachel McAdams – Spotlight

Next in line: 6. Kristen Stewart – Clouds of Sils Maria 7. Julie Walters – Brooklyn 8. Jessica Chastain – The Martian 9. Joan Allen – Room 10. Melanie Laurent – By the Sea 11. Elizabeth Banks – Love & Mercy 12. Helena Bonham Carter – Suffragette 13. Sarah Paulson – Carol 14. Jane Fonda – Youth 15. Cynthia Nixon – James White 16. Diane Ladd – Joy 17. Elizabeth Olsen – I Saw the Light 18. Melissa Leo – The Big Short 19. Ellen Page – Freeheld (Could go Lead) 20. Katherine Waterston – Steve Jobs

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Spotlight
2. Inside Out
3. Joy
4. The Hateful Eight
5. Trainwreck

Next in line: 6. Grandma 7. Bridge of Spies 8. Sicario 9. Miles Ahead (possible 2016 release) 10. Love & Mercy 11. Ex Machina 12. By the Sea 13. Our Brand is Crisis 14. Suffragette 15. Ricki and the Flash 16. Anomalisa 17. I’ll See You in My Dreams 18. Straight Outta Compton 19. The Good Dinosaur 20. Irrational Man

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Steve Jobs
2. Brooklyn
3. The Martian
4. Room
5. The Big Short

Next in line: 6. Carol 7. The Revenant 8. Truth 9. The Danish Girl 10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens 11. Beasts of No Nation 12. Me and Earl and the Dying Girl 13. The End of the Tour 14. Black Mass 15. In the Heart of the Sea 16. The Light Between Oceans (possible 2016 release) 17. Macbeth 18. Mad Max: Fury Road 19. The Walk 20. I Saw the Light

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Inside Out
2. Anomalisa
3. The Good Dinosaur
4. The Little Prince
5. Shaun the Sheep Movie

Next in line: 6. The Peanuts Movie 7. Minions 8. Kung Fu Panda 3 9. Home 10. Monster Trucks

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Martian
4. Carol
5. The Hateful Eight

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. The Revenant
2. Sicario
3. Spectre
4. The Martian
5. The Hateful Eight

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. The Hateful Eight
2. Cinderella
3. The Danish Girl
4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
5. Far from the Maddening Crowd

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Spotlight
2. Steve Jobs
3. The Revenant
4. The Hateful Eight
5. The Martian

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. The Danish Girl
2. Black Mass
3. Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Spectre
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Martian
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Jurassic World

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. The Martian
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Spectre
5. Sicario

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. The Martian
3. Jurassic World
4. Avengers: Age of Ultron
5. Ant-Man

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Spectre
2. Bridge of Spies
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. Steve Jobs
5. Spotlight

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Ricki and the Flash
2. Spectre
3. Love & Mercy
4. I’ll See You in My Dreams
5. Furious 7

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Cartel Land
2. Where To Invade Next (possible 2016 release)
3. The Look of Silence
4. He Named Me Malala
5. The Hunting Ground

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Son of Saul
2. The Assassin
3. The Second Mother
4. Labyrinth of Lies
5. A War

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

? (Still to come)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

? (Still to come)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

? (Still to come)

Stay tuned for more Oscar predictions later on this month!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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