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A second October Oscar predictions update

oscars 2011 nominees announcements stage 600 × 294
With only a week or so to go until Halloween, we’re really racing to the end of the 2015 awards season. As such, I think it’s more than prudent to take another look at my Oscar predictions today, something I’ll be doing more and more often going forward. Obviously, a number of X factors make predicting the Academy Awards in October little more than educated guesswork, but that’s how you slowly move towards answers. I’ve got a few big question marks still, but this represents one of my more fact based takes on what the race could ultimately shape up to be like. That’s something, right?

What I really tried to focus on this time was nailing down a potentially weak Best Actor race as well as where to put those pesky unseen contenders like The Big Short, Concussion, The Hateful Eight, Joy, The Revenant, and Star Wars: The Force Awakens. Currently, I have them all scoring nominations, with all but one getting cited in multiple categories. You obviously can’t quite know what to do with them, but with some awards hopefuls like Carol, Spotlight, and Steve Jobs being known entities, it pays to be a bit bullish. I’m playing it a little bit conservatively with Joy right now, but in the next update I might be going close to all in on that one. Sit tight for more on that hunch, but take a gander at what I currently think Oscar will do below…

Here now are my most up to date Academy Award predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. Spotlight
2. Steve Jobs
3. The Revenant
4. The Martian
5. Room
6. The Hateful Eight
7. Brooklyn
8. Joy
9. The Big Short
10. Carol

Next in line: 11. The Danish Girl 12. Bridge of Spies 13. Inside Out 14. Son of Saul 15. Beasts of No Nation 16. Sicario 17. Concussion 18. Miles Ahead (possible 2016 release) 19. By the Sea 20. Our Brand is Crisis 21. In the Heart of the Sea 22. Macbeth 23. Black Mass 24. 45 Years 25. Suffragette 26. Truth 27. Straight Outta Compton 28. Mad Max: Fury Road 29. Anomalisa 30. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Tom McCarthy – Spotlight
2. Danny Boyle – Steve Jobs
3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu – The Revenant
4. Quentin Tarantino – The Hateful Eight
5. Ridley Scott – The Martian

Next in line: 6. John Crowley – Brooklyn 7. David O. Russell – Joy 8. Todd Haynes – Carol 9. Steven Spielberg – Bridge of Spies 10. Lenny Abrahamson – Room 11. Tom Hooper – The Danish Girl 12. Cary Fukunaga – Beasts of No Nation 13. Adam McKay – The Big Short 14. George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road 15. Angelina Jolie – By the Sea 16. László Nemes – Son of Saul 17. Denis Villenueve – Sicario 18. Don Cheadle – Miles Ahead (possible 2016 release) 19. David Gordon Green – Our Brand is Crisis 20. J.J. Abrams – Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST ACTOR

1. Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
2. Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
3. Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl
4. Will Smith – Concussion
5. Matt Damon – The Martian

Next in line: 6. Johnny Depp – Black Mass 7. Paul Dano – Love & Mercy 8. Steve Carell – The Big Short 9. Jake Gyllenhaal – Southpaw 10. Tom Hanks – Bridge of Spies 11. Don Cheadle – Miles Ahead (possible 2016 release) 12. Bryan Cranston – Trumbo 13. Michael Caine – Youth 14. Tom Courtenay – 45 Years 15. Joseph Gordon-Levitt – The Walk 16. Robert Redford – Truth (Could go Supporting) 17. Abraham Atta – Beasts of No Nation 18. Christian Bale – The Big Short (Could go Supporting) 19. Géza Röhrig – Son of Saul 20. Brad Pitt – By the Sea

BEST ACTRESS

1. Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
2. Brie Larson – Room
3. Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn
4. Lily Tomlin – Grandma
5. Cate Blanchett – Carol or Truth

Next in line: 6. Carey Mulligan – Suffragette 7. Sandra Bullock – Our Brand is Crisis 8. Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years 9. Emily Blunt – Sicario 10. Blythe Danner – I’ll See You in My Dreams 11. Angelina Jolie – By the Sea 12. Marion Cotillard – MacBeth 13. Julianne Moore – Freehold (Could go Supporting) 14. Maggie Smith – The Lady in the Van 15. Meryl Streep – Ricki and the Flash 16. Amy Schumer – Trainwreck 17. Juliette Binoche – Clouds of Sils Maria 18. Olivia Wilde – Meadowland 19. Charlize Theron – Mad Max: Fury Road (Could go Supporting) 20. Melissa McCarthy – Spy

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight
2. Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation
3. Seth Rogen – Steve Jobs
4. Michael Keaton – Spotlight
5. Jason Segel – The End of the Tour

Next in line: 6. Kurt Russell – The Hateful Eight 7. Joel Edgerton – Black Mass 8. Tom Hardy – The Revenant 9. Sam Elliot – Grandma 10. John Cusack – Love & Mercy (Could go Lead) 11. Ryan Gosling – The Big Short 12. Benicio del Toro – Sicario 13. Bruce Dern – The Hateful Eight 14. Bradley Cooper – Joy 15. Samuel L. Jackson – The Hateful Eight 16. Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies 17. Harvey Keitel – Youth 18. Jacob Tremblay – Room 19. Emory Cohen – Brooklyn 20. Jeff Daniels – Steve Jobs

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Rooney Mara – Carol
2. Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
3. Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
4. Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
5. Rachel McAdams – Spotlight

Next in line: 6. Kristen Stewart – Clouds of Sils Maria 7. Julie Walters – Brooklyn 8. Jessica Chastain – The Martian 9. Joan Allen – Room 10. Melanie Laurent – By the Sea 11. Elizabeth Banks – Love & Mercy 12. Helena Bonham Carter – Suffragette 13. Sarah Paulson – Carol 14. Jane Fonda – Youth 15. Cynthia Nixon – James White 16. Diane Ladd – Joy 17. Ellen Page – Freeheld (Could go Lead) 18. Melissa Leo – The Big Short 19. Rose Byrne – Spy 20. Katherine Waterston – Steve Jobs

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Spotlight
2. Inside Out
3. Joy
4. The Hateful Eight
5. Trainwreck

Next in line: 6. Grandma 7. Bridge of Spies 8. Sicario 9. Miles Ahead (possible 2016 release) 10. Love & Mercy 11. Ex Machina 12. By the Sea 13. Our Brand is Crisis 14. Suffragette 15. Ricki and the Flash 16. 99 Homes 17. I’ll See You in My Dreams 18. Straight Outta Compton 19. The Good Dinosaur 20. Irrational Man

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Steve Jobs
2. Brooklyn
3. The Martian
4. Room
5. The Big Short

Next in line: 6. Carol 7. The Revenant 8. Anomalisa 9. The Danish Girl 10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens 11. Beasts of No Nation 12. Truth 13. The End of the Tour 14. Me and Earl and the Dying Girl 15. In the Heart of the Sea 16. Black Mass 17. Macbeth 18. The Walk 19. Trumbo 20. Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Inside Out
2. Anomalisa
3. The Good Dinosaur
4. The Little Prince
5. Shaun the Sheep Movie

Next in line: 6. The Peanuts Movie 7. Minions 8. Kung Fu Panda 3 9. Home 10. Monster Trucks

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Martian
4. Carol
5. The Hateful Eight

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. The Revenant
2. Sicario
3. Spectre
4. The Martian
5. The Hateful Eight

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. The Hateful Eight
2. Cinderella
3. The Danish Girl
4. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
5. Far from the Maddening Crowd

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Spotlight
2. Steve Jobs
3. The Revenant
4. The Hateful Eight
5. The Martian

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. The Danish Girl
2. Black Mass
3. Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Spectre
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. The Martian
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Jurassic World

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. The Martian
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Spectre
5. Sicario

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. The Martian
3. The Walk
4. Avengers: Age of Ultron
5. Ant-Man

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Spectre
2. Bridge of Spies
3. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
4. Steve Jobs
5. Spotlight

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Ricki and the Flash
2. Spectre
3. Love & Mercy
4. I’ll See You in My Dreams
5. Furious 7

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
2. Where To Invade Next (possible 2016 release)
3. Amy
4. Racing Extinction
5. The Look of Silence

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Son of Saul
2. The Assassin
3. The Second Mother
4. Labyrinth of Lies
5. A War

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

? (Still to come)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

? (Still to come)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

? (Still to come)

Stay tuned for another set of Oscar predictions early on next month!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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