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Updated Oscar predictions after the Globes and SAG announce their nominees

80th Annual Academy Awards - "Parade of the Oscars"
In this post Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild nomination world that we’re now living in, I think it’s a very apt time to update Academy Award predictions. In fact, I believe that anyone not in need of a prediction update needs to seriously take a look at themselves in the mirror. Either you’re some kind of prognostication savant and have been right all along (which I highly doubt), or you’re just ignoring the facts. I’ve spent all week tinkering, with the last hour or so being when I’ve really put my nose to the grindstone and tried to figure out what Oscar might do. Who knows if I’m any closer to being right, but at least now I have some material to look at in terms of these educated guesses.

What you’ll probably notice below, besides a facelift given to a number of the technical categories (I’ll admit it, I hadn’t been giving them enough attention), is a potential reflection of what the Globes and SAG did to the Academy Award race. They didn’t create any new frontrunners or anything of the sort, but they did more or less eliminate some candidates, while pushing forward some other ones. Among the contenders very pleased this week, we have Trumbo, which is no longer likely to get shut out. On the flip side, the actors in Spotlight now have reason to be nervous, though I ultimately think at least one will still get in. It’s a bit of a mess, as reflected in my prediction update. Stand by for another update very soon…

Here now is my latest set of Oscar predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. Spotlight
2. The Martian
3. Room
4. Carol
5. The Revenant
6. Brooklyn
7. The Hateful Eight
8. Steve Jobs
9. The Big Short
10. Mad Max: Fury Road

Next in line: 11. Bridge of Spies 12. Trumbo 13. Beasts of No Nation 14. The Danish Girl 15. Sicario 16. Joy 17. Youth 18. Son of Saul 19. Inside Out 20. Star Wars: The Force Awakens 21. Love & Mercy 22. Black Mass 23. Creed 24. 45 Years 25. In the Heart of the Sea 26. Concussion 27. Suffragette 28. Straight Outta Compton 29. Anomalisa 30. Truth

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Tom McCarthy – Spotlight
2. Ridley Scott – The Martian
3. Lenny Abrahamson – Room
4. George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Alejandro G. Iñárritu – The Revenant

Next in line: 6. Todd Haynes – Carol 7. Quentin Tarantino – The Hateful Eight 8. John Crowley – Brooklyn 9. Adam McKay – The Big Short 10. Danny Boyle – Steve Jobs 11. Steven Spielberg – Bridge of Spies 12. Denis Villenueve – Sicario 13. David O. Russell – Joy 14. Cary Fukunaga – Beasts of No Nation 15. Tom Hooper – The Danish Girl 16. László Nemes – Son of Saul 17. Paolo Sorrentino – Youth 18. Ron Howard– In the Heart of the Sea 19. Bill Pohlad – Love & Mercy 20. J.J. Abrams – Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST ACTOR

1. Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
2. Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
3. Matt Damon – The Martian
3. Bryan Cranston – Trumbo
5. Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl

Next in line: 6. Steve Carell – The Big Short 7. Will Smith – Concussion 8. Johnny Depp – Black Mass 9. Michael Caine – Youth 10. Tom Hanks – Bridge of Spies 11. Jake Gyllenhaal – Southpaw 12. Samuel L. Jackson – The Hateful Eight (Could go Supporting) 13. Michael B. Jordan – Creed 14. John Cusack – Love & Mercy 15. Tom Courtenay – 45 Years 16. Ian McKellen – Mr. Holmes 17. Géza Röhrig – Son of Saul 18. Abraham Atta – Beasts of No Nation 19. Chris Hemsworth – In the Heart of the Sea 20. Joseph Gordon-Levitt – The Walk

BEST ACTRESS

1. Brie Larson – Room
2. Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn
3. Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
4. Cate Blanchett – Carol
5. Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years

Next in line: 6. Lily Tomlin – Grandma 7. Carey Mulligan – Suffragette 8. Blythe Danner – I’ll See You in My Dreams 9. Emily Blunt – Sicario 10. Helen Mirren – Woman in Gold 11. Maggie Smith – The Lady in the Van 12. Bel Powley – The Diary of a Teenage Girl 13. Sandra Bullock – Our Brand is Crisis 14. Meryl Streep – Ricki and the Flash 15. Amy Schumer – Trainwreck 16. Juliette Binoche – Clouds of Sils Maria 17. Sarah Silverman – I Smile Back 18. Julianne Moore – Freehold 19. Charlize Theron – Mad Max: Fury Road 20. Olivia Wilde – Meadowland

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
2. Sylvester Stallone – Creed
3. Paul Dano – Love & Mercy
4. Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation
5. Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight

Next in line: 6. Michael Keaton – Spotlight 7. Jacob Tremblay – Room 8. Christian Bale – The Big Short 9. Michael Shannon – 99 Homes 10. Benicio del Toro – Sicario 11. Harvey Keitel – Youth 12. Tom Hardy – The Revenant 13. Jason Segel – The End of the Tour 14. Kurt Russell – The Hateful Eight 15. Seth Rogen – Steve Jobs 16. Sam Elliot – Grandma 17. Joel Edgerton – Black Mass 18. Emory Cohen – Brooklyn 19. Ryan Gosling – The Big Short 20. Jason Mitchell – Straight Outta Compton

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Rooney Mara – Carol
2. Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
3. Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
4. Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
5. Rachel McAdams – Spotlight

Next in line: 6. Kristen Stewart – Clouds of Sils Maria 7. Elizabeth Banks – Love & Mercy 8. Helen Mirren – Trumbo 9.Jane Fonda – Youth 10. Joan Allen – Room 11. Julie Walters – Brooklyn 12. Cynthia Nixon – James White 13. Helena Bonham Carter – Suffragette 14. Sarah Paulson – Carol 15. Marion Cotillard – MacBeth 16. Ellen Page – Freeheld 17. Luara Linney – Mr. Holmes 18. Jessica Chastain – The Martian 19. Olivia Cooke – Me and Earl and the Dying Girl 20. Rose Byrne – Spy

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Spotlight
2. The Hateful Eight
3. Inside Out
4. Sicario
5. Love & Mercy

Next in line: 6. Bridge of Spies 7. Trainwreck 8. Grandma 9. Ex Machina 10. Joy 11. Youth 12. I’ll See You in My Dreams 13. Straight Outta Compton 14. Suffragette 15. Ricki and the Flash 16. 99 Homes 17. The Lady in the Van 18. Dope 19. The Good Dinosaur 20. By the Sea

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Martian
2. Room
3. The Big Short
4. Brooklyn
5. Steve Jobs

Next in line: 6. Carol 7. Anomalisa 8. The Revenant 9.Trumbo 10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens 11. The Danish Girl 12. Beasts of No Nation 13. The End of the Tour 14. Me and Earl and the Dying Girl 15. 45 Years 16. Black Mass 17. Mad Max: Fury Road 18. The Diary of a Teenage Girl 19. The Walk 20. In the Heart of the Sea

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Inside Out
2. Anomalisa
3. The Good Dinosaur
4. The Peanuts Movie
5. Shaun the Sheep Movie

Next in line: 6. Kahlil Gibran’s The Prophet 7. Minions 8. When Marnie Was There 9. Home 10. Boy and the World

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Carol
2. The Danish Girl
3. Cinderella
4. The Hateful Eight
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. The Revenant
2. Sicario
3. The Hateful Eight
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. The Martian

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. The Danish Girl
2. Carol
3. The Hateful Eight
4. Trumbo
5. Cinderella

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Spotlight
2. The Martian
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. The Big Short
5. Steve Jobs

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. The Danish Girl
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. Black Mass

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. The Martian
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Sicario
5. Jurassic World

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. The Martian
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Sicario
5. The Revenant

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. The Martian
3. The Walk
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Avengers: Age of Ultron

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. The Hateful Eight
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. Carol
4. The Danish Girl
5. Bridge of Spies

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. The Hunting Ground (Til It Happens to You)
2. Furious 7 (See You Again)
3. Youth (Simple Song #3)
4. Spectre (Writing’s on the Wall)
5. Ted 2 (Mean Ol’ Moon)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Where To Invade Next
2. Amy
3. The Look of Silence
4. Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
5. The Hunting Ground

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Son of Saul
2. The Assassin
3. The Second Mother
4. Labyrinth of Lies
5. Mustang

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Sanjay’s Super Team
2. My Home
3. An Object at Rest
4. Prologue
5. World of Tomorrow

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. Claude Lanzmann: Specters of the Shoah
2. 50 Feet from Syria
3. Body Team 12
4. Last Day of Freedom
5. A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Stutterer
2. Day One
3. Winter Light
4. The Free Man
5. Bad Hunter

Stay tuned for more Oscar prediction updates as the month of December progresses along!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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