Hollywood Contenders – Looking at Best Original Screenplay hopefuls                Todd Haynes explores the world of children with "Wonderstruck"                MUDBOUND and COCO to be Honored at Hollywood Film Awards                "The Killing of a Sacred Deer" pairs Colin Farrell and Nicole Kidman once again                "Wonder Wheel" closes NYFF with a commanding Kate Winslet turn                Sam Rockwell and Allison Janney to Receive Hollywood Supporting Actor and Hollywood Supporting Actress Awards at "Hollywood Film Awards"                Hollywood Contenders – Looking at Best Adapted Screenplay hopefuls                "Breathe" aims to return Andrew Garfield to Oscar contention                Mary J. Blige, Timothée Chalamet and the Cast of "I, Tonya" - Margot Robbie, Allison Janney, Sebastian Stan, Paul Walter Hauser to be honored at the 21st Annual "Hollywood Film Awards."                New Trailer drops for "Star Wars: The Last Jedi"                "Goodbye Christopher Robin" reveals the origins of Winnie the Pooh                Hollywood Contenders – Looking at Best Supporting Actress hopefuls                "The Florida Project" is one of the year's best films                Trailer for "Wonder Wheel" showcases one of Woody Allen's most visual efforts to date                “Blade Runner 2049” and “Jigsaw”: Films to see in October        

A post BAFTA update to Oscar Predictions

Oscars envelope 600x340
Believe it or not, members of the Academy will likely have finalized their nomination decisions by the time you’re reading this. Yes, the deadline for ballots to be in is today, and that’s coming right on the heels of the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (or BAFTA) making their nomination announcement in the wee hours. They function almost as an extra guild, as many BAFTA members are in the Academy as well, so it bears referencing. Oscar isn’t going to be able to refer to DGA nominations this year, so I think some voters will look for clues as to what their colleagues support anywhere that they can find it. This might lead to some surprises, for sure, but it also makes things almost impossible to pin down right now. Still, we try.

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First up, here are the BAFTA nominations:

BEST FILM
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Revenant
Spotlight

BEST ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett – Carol
Brie Larson – Room
Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn
Maggie Smith – Lady in the Van
Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl

BEST ACTOR
Bryan Cranston – Trumbo
Matt Damon – The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara – Carol
Alicia Vikander – Ex Machina
Julie Walters – Brooklyn
Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Christian Bale – The Big Short
Benicio Del Toro – Sicario
Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation
Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight
Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies

DIRECTOR
Todd Haynes, Carol
Alejandro Gonzalez Iñárritu, The Revenant
Adam McKay, The Big Short
Ridley Scott, The Martian
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies

OUTSTANDING BRITISH FILM
45 Years
Amy
Brooklyn
The Danish Girl
Ex Machina
The Lobster

FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE
The Assassin
Force Majeure
Theeb
Timbuktu
Wild Tales

DOCUMENTARY
Amy
Cartel Land
He Named Me Malala
Listen to Me Marlon
Sherpa

ANIMATED FILM
Inside Out
Minions
Shaun the Sheep Movie

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Roger Deakins, Sicario
Janusz Kaminski, Bridge of Spies
Ed Lachman, Carol
Emmanuel Lubezki, The Revenant
John Seale, Mad Max: Fury Road

MUSIC
Thomas Newman, Bridge of Spies
Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight
Ryuichi Sakamoto, Carsten Nicolai, The Revenant
Jóhann Jóhannsson, Sicario
John Williams, Star Wars: The Force Awakens

OUTSTANDING DEBUT BY A BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR OR PRODUCER
Sean McAllister (Director/Producer), Elhum Shakerifar (Producer), A Syrian Love Story
Stephen Fingleton (Writer/Director), The Survivalist
Alex Garland (Director), Ex Machina
Debbie Tucker Green (Writer/Director), Second Coming
Naji Abu Nowar (Writer/Director), Rupert Lloyd (Producer), Theeb

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Matthew Charman, Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, Bridge of Spies
Josh Cooley, Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Inside Out
Alex Garland, Ex Machina
Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer, Spotlight
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Emma Donoghue, Room
Nick Hornby, Brooklyn
Adam McKay, Charles Randolph, The Big Short
Phyllis Nagy, Carol
Aaron Sorkin, Steve Jobs

EDITING
Hank Corwin, The Big Short
Michael Kahn, Bridge of Spies
Stephen Mirrione, The Revenant
Pietro Scalia, The Martian
Margaret Sixel, Mad Max: Fury Road

PRODUCTION DESIGN
Bridge of Spies (Adam Stockhausen, Rena DeAngelo)
Carol (Judy Becker, Heather Loeffler)
Mad Max: Fury Road (Colin Gibson, Lisa Thompson)
The Martian (Arthur Max, Celia Bobak)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Rick Carter, Darren Gilford, Lee Sandales)

COSTUME DESIGN
Brooklyn (Odile Dicks-Mireaux)
Carol (Sandy Powell)
Cinderella (Sandy Powell)
The Danish Girl (Paco Delgado)
Mad Max: Fury Road (Jenny Beavan)

MAKE UP & HAIR
Brooklyn (Morna Ferguson, Lorraine Glynn)
Carol (Jerry DeCarlo, Patricia Regan)
The Danish Girl (Jan Sewell)
Mad Max: Fury Road (Lesley Vanderwalt, Damian Martin)
The Revenant (Sian Grigg, Duncan Jarman, Robert Pandini)

SOUND
Bridge of Spies (Drew Kunin, Richard Hymns, Andy Nelson, Gary Rydstrom)
Mad Max: Fury Road (Scott Hecker, Chris Jenkins, Mark Mangini, Ben Osmo, Gregg Rudloff, David White)
The Martian (Paul Massey, Mac Ruth, Oliver Tarney, Mark Taylor)
The Revenant (Lon Bender, Chris Duesterdiek, Martin Hernandez, Frank A. Montaño, Jon Taylor, Randy Thom)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (David Acord, Andy Nelson, Christopher Scarabosio, Matthew Wood, Stuart Wilson)

SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS
Ant-Man (Jake Morrison, Greg Steele, Dan Sudick, Alex Wuttke)
Ex Machina (Mark Ardington, Sara Bennett, Paul Norris, Andrew Whitehurst)
Mad Max: Fury Road (Andrew Jackson, Dan Oliver, Tom Wood, Andy Williams)
The Martian (Chris Lawrence, Tim Ledbury, Richard Stammers, Steven Warner)
Star Wars: The Force Awakens (Chris Corbould, Roger Guyett, Paul Kavanagh, Neal Scanlan)

The thing to notice now, when looking at the predictions below, is how they reflect what has happened so far. I’ve used all of the guilds, as well as BAFTA, to try and figure this out. Especially without DGA, the Best Director category could go any number of ways, while it’s tough to firmly predict if something like Straight Out of Compton is indeed going to wind up in the Best Picture lineup. It’s all a puzzle, one without any immediate answer. Sunday’s announcement of the Golden Globe winners won’t make any difference, so it’s just a matter of seeing how it all evolves. Right now, the last nomination ballots are being turned in, so technically the decisions have been made already. Prediction wise, here goes nothing. Sit tight for more next week…

spotlight michael keaton mark ruffalo
Here now is my latest crack at Academy Award predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. Spotlight
2. The Big Short
3. The Martian
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Room
6. The Revenant
7. Carol
8. Straight Outta Compton
9. Bridge of Spies
10. Brooklyn

Next in line: 11. Star Wars: The Force Awakens 12. Sicario 13. Trumbo 14. Ex Machina 15. Beasts of No Nation 16. The Hateful Eight 17. Steve Jobs 18. Joy 19. Inside Out 20. Love & Mercy 21. Youth 22. Black Mass 23. Creed 24. 45 Years 25. The Danish Girl 26. Concussion 27. Suffragette 28. Son of Saul 29. 99 Homes 30. Anomalisa

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Tom McCarthy – Spotlight
2. Ridley Scott – The Martian
3. George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Alejandro G. Iñárritu – The Revenant
5. Adam McKay – The Big Short

Next in line: 6. Todd Haynes – Carol 7. Lenny Abrahamson – Room 8. Quentin Tarantino – The Hateful Eight 9. John Crowley – Brooklyn 10. Danny Boyle – Steve Jobs 11. Steven Spielberg – Bridge of Spies 12. Denis Villenueve – Sicario 13. David O. Russell – Joy 14. Cary Fukunaga – Beasts of No Nation 15. J.J. Abrams – Star Wars: The Force Awakens 16. Tom Hooper – The Danish Girl 17. Paolo Sorrentino – Youth 18. Jay Roach – Trumbo 19. Bill Pohlad – Love & Mercy 20. László Nemes – Son of Saul

BEST ACTOR

1. Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
2. Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
3. Bryan Cranston – Trumbo
3. Will Smith – Concussion
5. Matt Damon – The Martian

Next in line: 6. Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl 7. Steve Carell – The Big Short 8. Johnny Depp – Black Mass 9. Michael Caine – Youth 10. Tom Hanks – Bridge of Spies 11. Jake Gyllenhaal – Southpaw 12. Samuel L. Jackson – The Hateful Eight (Could go Supporting) 13. Michael B. Jordan – Creed 14. John Cusack – Love & Mercy 15. Tom Courtenay – 45 Years 16. Ian McKellen – Mr. Holmes 17. Géza Röhrig – Son of Saul 18. Abraham Atta – Beasts of No Nation 19. Chris Hemsworth – In the Heart of the Sea 20. Joseph Gordon-Levitt – The Walk

BEST ACTRESS

1. Brie Larson – Room
2. Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn
3. Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
4. Cate Blanchett – Carol
5. Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years

Next in line: 6. Lily Tomlin – Grandma 7. Helen Mirren – Woman in Gold 8. Blythe Danner – I’ll See You in My Dreams 9. Emily Blunt – Sicario 10. Maggie Smith – The Lady in the Van 11. Bel Powley – The Diary of a Teenage Girl 12. Carey Mulligan – Suffragette 13. Sandra Bullock – Our Brand is Crisis 14. Meryl Streep – Ricki and the Flash 15. Amy Schumer – Trainwreck 16. Juliette Binoche – Clouds of Sils Maria 17. Sarah Silverman – I Smile Back 18. Julianne Moore – Freehold 19. Charlize Theron – Mad Max: Fury Road 20. Olivia Wilde – Meadowland

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
2. Sylvester Stallone – Creed
3. Paul Dano – Love & Mercy
4. Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation
5. Michael Shannon – 99 Homes

Next in line: 6. Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight 7. Jacob Tremblay – Room 8. Michael Keaton – Spotlight 9. Christian Bale – The Big Short 10. Tom Hardy – The Revenant 11. Benicio del Toro – Sicario 12. Harvey Keitel – Youth 13. Jason Segel – The End of the Tour 14. Kurt Russell – The Hateful Eight 15. Seth Rogen – Steve Jobs 16. Sam Elliot – Grandma 17. Joel Edgerton – Black Mass 18. Emory Cohen – Brooklyn 19. Ryan Gosling – The Big Short 20. Harrison Ford – Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Rooney Mara – Carol
2. Alicia Vikander – Ex Machina
3. Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
4. Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
5. Helen Mirren – Trumbo

Next in line: 6. Rachel McAdams – Spotlight 7. Kristen Stewart – Clouds of Sils Maria 8. Alicia Vikander – Ex Machina 9. Elizabeth Banks – Love & Mercy 10. Jane Fonda – Youth 11. Joan Allen – Room 12. Julie Walters – Brooklyn 13. Cynthia Nixon – James White 14. Sarah Paulson – Carol 15. Marion Cotillard – Macbeth 16. Ellen Page – Freeheld 17. Luara Linney – Mr. Holmes 18. Jessica Chastain – The Martian 19. Olivia Cooke – Me and Earl and the Dying Girl 20. Rose Byrne – Spy

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Spotlight
2. The Hateful Eight
3. Bridge of Spies
4. Ex Machina
5. Straight Outta Compton

Next in line: 6. Inside Out 7. Sicario 8. Trainwreck 9. Love & Mercy 10. Joy 11. Grandma 12. I’ll See You in My Dreams 13. Youth 14. 99 Homes 15. Tangerine 16. Ricki and the Flash 17. Suffragette 18. Infinitely Polar Bear 19. The Lady in the Van 20. Irrational Man

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Big Short
2. Room
3. Carol
4. The Martian
5. Steve Jobs

Next in line: 6. Trumbo 7. Brooklyn 8. The Revenant 9. Anomalisa 10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens 11. The Danish Girl 12. Beasts of No Nation 13. The End of the Tour 14. Me and Earl and the Dying Girl 15. 45 Years 16. Black Mass 17. Mad Max: Fury Road 18. The Diary of a Teenage Girl 19. The Walk 20. In the Heart of the Sea

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Inside Out
2. Anomalisa
3. The Good Dinosaur
4. Shaun the Sheep Movie
5. The Peanuts Movie

Next in line: 6. Kahlil Gibran’s The Prophet 7. Minions 8. When Marnie Was There 9. Home 10. Boy and the World

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Carol
2. The Danish Girl
3. Cinderella
4. The Hateful Eight
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Next in line: 6. Bridge of Spies 7. Mad Max: Fury Road 8. Macbeth 9. The Revenant 10. Brooklyn

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. The Revenant
2. Sicario
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Carol
5. The Hateful Eight

Next in line: 6. Bridge of Spies 7. The Martian 8. Son of Saul 9. Creed 10. The Assassin

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. The Danish Girl
2. Carol
3. The Hateful Eight
4. Trumbo
5. Cinderella

Next in line: 6. The Revenant 7. Brooklyn 8. Far From the Maddening Crowd 9. Macbeth 10. Suffragette

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Spotlight
2. The Martian
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. The Big Short
5. Steve Jobs

Next in line: 6. Room 7. Bridge of Spies 8. Star Wars: The Force Awakens 9. The Revenant 10. Creed

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Black Mass
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Mr. Holmes

Next in line: 4. The Revenant 5. Legend 6. The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared 7. Concussion

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. The Martian
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Sicario
5. Jurassic World

Next in line: 6. The Revenant 7. The Hateful Eight 8. Spectre 9. In the Heart of the Sea 10. Steve Jobs

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. The Martian
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Sicario
5. The Revenant

Next in line: 6. The Hateful Eight 7. In the Heart of the Sea 8. Bridge of Spies 9. Spectre 10. Avengers: Age of Ultron

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. The Martian
3. The Walk
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Avengers: Age of Ultron

Next in line: 6. Jurassic World 7. The Revenant 8. Ant-Man 9. Ex Machina 10. Tomorrowland

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. The Hateful Eight
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. Carol
4. The Danish Girl
5. Bridge of Spies

Next in line: 6. Spotlight 7. Steve Jobs 8. Brooklyn 9. Inside Out 10. Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. The Hunting Ground (Til It Happens to You)
2. Furious 7 (See You Again)
3. Youth (Simple Song #3)
4. Spectre (Writing’s on the Wall)
5. Fifty Shades of Grey (Love Me Like You Do)

Next in line: 6. Concussion (So Long) 7. I’ll See You in My Dreams (I’ll See You in My Dreams) 8. Ricki and the Flash (Cold One) 9. Pitch Perfect 2 (Flashlight) 10. Ted 2 (Mean Ol’ Moon)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Amy
2. Where To Invade Next
3. The Look of Silence
4. Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
5. The Hunting Ground

Next in line: 6. He Named Me Malala 7. Cartel Land 8. Heart of the Dog 9. 3 1/2 Minutes, 10 Bullets 10. Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Son of Saul
2. Mustang
3. Labyrinth of Lies
4. A War
5. Theeb

Next in line: 6. The Brand New Testament 7. Embrace of the Serpent 8. The Fencer 9. Viva

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Sanjay’s Super Team
2. If I Was God
3. An Object at Rest
4. World of Tomorrow
5. Prologue

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. Body Team 12
2. 50 Feet from Syria
3. Claude Lanzmann: Specters of the Shoah
4. Last Day of Freedom
5. A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Ave Maria
2. Day One
3. Shok
4. Winter Light
5. Stutterer

Stay tuned for another update to my Oscar predictions next week!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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