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Final Oscar Predictions before the nominations

80th Annual Academy Awards - "Parade of the Oscars"
This is it. We’re now less than 24 hours away from the Academy Award nominations being announced. Yes, early tomorrow morning the Oscar nominations are going to be handed out live, either validating or (more likely) invalidating a number of hunches and suspicions that we’ve had all season long. Prognosticators like myself are finalizing their predictions today, so obviously I’m going to be doing the same thing. It’s more than crunch time ladies and gentlemen, it’s the final seconds before the buzzer sounds. Have I nailed these predictions? No. Do I feel confident? No. Is it the most logical outcome I can see? Yes, and that’s what matters. So, let’s discuss this a bit right now, as I resist the urge to just tinker and tinker until the end of the day.

There are small changes to be found all over my predictions, as you can see below. In terms of surprises to look out for, my main ones are Eddie Redmayne missing out in Best Actor for The Danish Girl, Helen Mirren getting into Best Actress for Woman in Gold, two actors from Spotlight (Mark Ruffalo and Rachel McAdams) still getting Supporting Actor/Supporting Actress nominations, and The Walk managing a Best Visual Effects nomination. I also avoided category confusion with Rooney Mara and Alicia Vikander, keeping them both in Best Supporting Actress. Those choices hardly the only notable ones here, but they’re a few things to keep an eye out for, potentially. My big struggle? Best Picture, obviously. There are 11 realistic contenders for the honor tomorrow, with between five and ten set to be cited. My biggest struggle was to figure out if Straight Outta Compton was potentially going to be the first film to be nominated for one Academy Award and have it be picture. You’ll see what I decided on, but trust me when I say that these predictions stressed me out. One extra bonus you’ll notice is when applicable, I showed where the cut off for realistic nominees is in certain categories. Still, so much stress…

Here goes nothing folks. My last crack at Oscar predictions, in advance of tomorrow’s announcement:

BEST PICTURE

1. Spotlight
2. The Martian
3. The Big Short
4. The Revenant
5. Bridge of Spies
6. Mad Max: Fury Road
7. Room
8. Straight Outta Compton
9. Carol
10. Brooklyn

Next in line: 11. Sicario

Rest of the pack: 12. Trumbo 13. Star Wars: The Force Awakens 14. Ex Machina 15. Beasts of No Nation 16. The Hateful Eight 17. Steve Jobs 18. Joy 19. Inside Out 20. Creed 21. Youth 22. Black Mass 23. Love & Mercy 24. 45 Years 25. The Danish Girl 26. Concussion 27. Suffragette 28. Son of Saul 29. 99 Homes 30. Anomalisa

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Tom McCarthy – Spotlight
2. Ridley Scott – The Martian
3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu – The Revenant
4. Adam McKay – The Big Short
5. George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road

Next in line: 6. Steven Spielberg – Bridge of Spies 7. Todd Haynes – Carol

Rest of the pack: 8. Lenny Abrahamson – Room 9. Quentin Tarantino – The Hateful Eight 10. Denis Villenueve – Sicario 11. Danny Boyle – Steve Jobs 12. John Crowley – Brooklyn 13. F Gary Gray – Straight Outta Compton 14. Cary Fukunaga – Beasts of No Nation 15. J.J. Abrams – Star Wars: The Force Awakens 16. David O. Russell – Joy 17. Tom Hooper – The Danish Girl 18. Jay Roach – Trumbo 19. Paolo Sorrentino – Youth 20. Alex Garland – Ex Machina

BEST ACTOR

1. Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
2. Matt Damon – The Martian
3. Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
4. Bryan Cranston – Trumbo
5. Steve Carell – The Big Short

Next in line: 6. Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl 7. Will Smith – Concussion 8. Johnny Depp – Black Mass 9. Tom Hanks – Bridge of Spies

Rest of the pack: 10. Michael B. Jordan – Creed 11. Michael Caine – Youth 12. Jake Gyllenhaal – Southpaw 13. Samuel L. Jackson – The Hateful Eight (Could go Supporting) 14. Ian McKellen – Mr. Holmes 15. John Cusack – Love & Mercy 16. Tom Courtenay – 45 Years 17. Géza Röhrig – Son of Saul 18. Abraham Atta – Beasts of No Nation 19. Chris Hemsworth – In the Heart of the Sea 20. Joseph Gordon-Levitt – The Walk

BEST ACTRESS

1. Brie Larson – Room
2. Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett – Carol
4. Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
5. Helen Mirren – Woman in Gold

Next in line: 6. Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years

Rest of the pack: 7. Lily Tomlin – Grandma 8. Sarah Silverman – I Smile Back 9. Blythe Danner – I’ll See You in My Dreams 10. Emily Blunt – Sicario 11. Maggie Smith – The Lady in the Van 12. Bel Powley – The Diary of a Teenage Girl 13. Carey Mulligan – Suffragette 14. Sandra Bullock – Our Brand is Crisis 15. Meryl Streep – Ricki and the Flash 16. Amy Schumer – Trainwreck 17. Juliette Binoche – Clouds of Sils Maria 18. Julianne Moore – Freehold 19. Charlize Theron – Mad Max: Fury Road 20. Olivia Wilde – Meadowland

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
2. Sylvester Stallone – Creed
3. Christian Bale – The Big Short
4. Michael Shannon – 99 Homes
5. Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight

Next in line: 6. Idris Elba – Beasts of No Nation 7. Paul Dano – Love & Mercy 8. Tom Hardy – The Revenant 9. Benicio del Toro – Sicario 10. Michael Keaton – Spotlight 11. Jacob Tremblay – Room

Rest of the pack: 12. Harvey Keitel – Youth 13. Jason Segel – The End of the Tour 14. Kurt Russell – The Hateful Eight 15. Seth Rogen – Steve Jobs 16. Sam Elliot – Grandma 17. Joel Edgerton – Black Mass 18. Emory Cohen – Brooklyn 19. Ryan Gosling – The Big Short 20. Harrison Ford – Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Rooney Mara – Carol
2. Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
3. Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
5. Rachel McAdams – Spotlight

Next in line: 6. Helen Mirren – Trumbo 7. Kristen Stewart – Clouds of Sils Maria

Rest of the pack: 8. Jane Fonda – Youth 9. Elizabeth Banks – Love & Mercy 10. Alicia Vikander – Ex Machina 11. Joan Allen – Room 12. Julie Walters – Brooklyn 13. Marion Cotillard – Macbeth 14. Sarah Paulson – Carol 15. Cynthia Nixon – James White 16. Ellen Page – Freeheld 17. Luara Linney – Mr. Holmes 18. Jessica Chastain – The Martian 19. Olivia Cooke – Me and Earl and the Dying Girl 20. Rose Byrne – Spy

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Spotlight
2. The Hateful Eight
3. Bridge of Spies
4. Ex Machina
5. Straight Outta Compton

Next in line: 6. Inside Out 7. Sicario 8. Trainwreck

Rest of the pack: 9. Love & Mercy 10. Joy 11. Grandma 12. I’ll See You in My Dreams 13. Youth 14. 99 Homes 15. Tangerine 16. Ricki and the Flash 17. Suffragette 18. Infinitely Polar Bear 19. The Lady in the Van 20. Irrational Man

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Big Short
2. Room
3. The Martian
4. Steve Jobs
5. Carol

Next in line: 6. Trumbo 7. Brooklyn 8. The Revenant

Rest of the pack: 9. Beasts of No Nation 10. Star Wars: The Force Awakens 11. Anomalisa 12. Mad Max: Fury Road 13. The End of the Tour 14. Me and Earl and the Dying Girl 15. 45 Years 16. The Danish Girl 17. Black Mass 18. The Diary of a Teenage Girl 19. The Walk 20. In the Heart of the Sea

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Inside Out
2. Anomalisa
3. Shaun the Sheep Movie
4. Kahlil Gibran’s The Prophet
5. The Good Dinosaur

Next in line: 6. The Peanuts Movie 7. Minions 8. When Marnie Was There 9. Home 10. Boy and the World

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Martian
3. Carol
4. The Hateful Eight
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Next in line: 6. Bridge of Spies 7. The Danish Girl 8. Cinderella 9. Crimson Peak 10. The Revenant

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. The Revenant
2. Sicario
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Bridge of Spies
5. The Hateful Eight

Next in line: 6. Carol 7. The Martian 8. Son of Saul 9. Beasts of No Nation 10. Creed

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Carol
2. The Danish Girl
3. Trumbo
4. Cinderella
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Next in line: 6. The Revenant 7. The Hateful Eight 8. Far from the Maddening Crowd 9. Brooklyn 10. Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Spotlight
2. The Martian
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. The Big Short
5. The Revenant

Next in line: 6. Bridge of Spies 7. Steve Jobs 8. Sicario 9. Star Wars: The Force Awakens 10. Creed

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. The Revenant
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Mr. Holmes

Next in line: 4. Black Mass 5. The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared 6. Legend 7. Concussion

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. The Martian
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Bridge of Spies
5. The Hateful Eight

Next in line: 6. The Revenant 7. Sicario 8. Spectre 9. Jurassic World 10. Steve Jobs

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. The Martian
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Sicario
5. The Revenant

Next in line: 6. The Hateful Eight 7. In the Heart of the Sea 8. Bridge of Spies 9. Spectre 10. Avengers: Age of Ultron

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. The Martian
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. The Walk
5. The Revenant

Next in line: 6. Jurassic World 7. Avengers: Age of Ultron 8. Ant-Man 9. Ex Machina 10. Tomorrowland

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. The Hateful Eight
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. Carol
4. Bridge of Spies
5. Spotlight

Next in line: 6. The Danish Girl 7. Steve Jobs 8. Brooklyn 9. Inside Out 10. Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. The Hunting Ground (Til It Happens to You)
2. Furious 7 (See You Again)
3. Youth (Simple Song #3)
4. Spectre (Writing’s on the Wall)
5. Fifty Shades of Grey (Love Me Like You Do)

Next in line: 6. Concussion (So Long) 7. I’ll See You in My Dreams (I’ll See You in My Dreams) 8. Ricki and the Flash (Cold One) 9. Pitch Perfect 2 (Flashlight) 10. Ted 2 (Mean Ol’ Moon)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Amy
2. Going Clear: Scientology and the Prison of Belief
3. The Look of Silence
4. Where to Invade Next
5. The Hunting Ground

Next in line: 6. He Named Me Malala 7. Cartel Land 8. Heart of the Dog 9. 3 1/2 Minutes, 10 Bullets 10. Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Son of Saul
2. Mustang
3. Labyrinth of Lies
4. A War
5. The Brand New Testament

Next in line: 6. Theeb 7. Embrace of the Serpent 8. The Fencer 9. Viva

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Sanjay’s Super Team
2. If I Was God
3. An Object at Rest
4. World of Tomorrow
5. Prologue

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. Body Team 12
2. 50 Feet from Syria
3. Claude Lanzmann: Specters of the Shoah
4. Last Day of Freedom
5. A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Ave Maria
2. Day One
3. Shok
4. Winter Light
5. Stutterer

Stay tuned to see what happens when the Academy Award nominations are announced tomorrow morning!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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