Nicole Kidman: Boy Erased and Destroyer - Hollywood Film Tribute                “Beautiful Boy” – Timothée Chalamet: Hollywood Film Tribute                “First Man” by Damien Chazelle: Ryan Gosling, Claire Foy - Hollywood Film Tribute                Natalie Portman shines in the otherwise confounding "Vox Lux"                Golden Globe nominations announced! "Vice" leads the charge!                “Green Book” - Viggo Mortensen, Mahershala Ali: Hollywood Film Tribute                "Mary Queen of Scots" can't live up to its royal lineage                "Ben Is Back" sees father and filmmaker Peter Hedges direct his son Lucas Hedges to a brilliant performance                Hollywood Film Tribute: GLENN CLOSE for her excellent performances                A final crack at Golden Globe nominations before Thursday's announcement                “Mary Poppins Returns” and “Once Upon a Deadpool”: Films to see in December                Review Round-Up: "Elliot: The Littlest Reindeer" and "The Mercy"                National Board of Review goes big for "Green Book" and "A Star Is Born"                "Amazing Grace" pays tribute to Aretha Franklin                Could "Vice" be this year's late breaking party crasher for awards season?        

HOLLYWOOD CONTENDERS: Updated Oscar predictions for May

82nd Annual Academy Awards - Red Carpet Activities - March 3, 2010

With the 2016 Cannes Film Festival well underway, now’s the perfect time to give you a new look at Oscar predictions folks! Why, you may ask? Well, having seen two the movies playing at Cannes, it only seems apt. One is Money Monster, which isn’t really of note here, but the other is Woody Allen’s Café Society, which I was lucky enough to see stateside. That one could be a player, and obviously it’s floating around my head as I update these predictions. Read on to see how I think it might go for Allen’s latest, along with all of the other contenders we currently know about!

What you’ll see below reflects basically how I currently see the race. The only information I’m working off of that everyone else might not have is having seen Café Society. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk got a very promising Trailer yesterday as well, but that’s nothing exclusive and I’ll be tackling that in a specific post on Monday. As for Woody’s flick, I think it’s one of his recent best and definitely has a chance to make waves with Oscar. It’s got a lot in common with Midnight in Paris, which should prove to be rather promising for Allen and company. It’s not out until July, so no one can say just yet, but I suspect it won’t be easily dismissed. Other than that, it’s more or less the same contenders here, just tinkered with to try and get an early feel for the season to come…

billy lynns long halftime walk slice-600x200
Here now are my current early Oscar predictions, at least for the moment here in the middle of May:

BEST PICTURE

1. Manchester by the Sea
2. Silence
3. La La Land
4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
5. Loving
6. The Birth of a Nation
7. Lion
8. The Light Between Oceans
9. Passengers
10. Café Society

Next in line: 11. War Machine 12. The Founder 13. Sully 14. Story of Your Life 15. A United Kingdom 16. Collateral Beauty 17. Snowden 18. Nocturnal Animals 19. The Zookeeper’s Wife 20. Allied 21. The Lost City of Z 22. The Nice Guys 23. LBJ 24. The Circle 25. Everybody Wants Some

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
2. Martin Scorsese – Silence
3. Damien Chazelle – La La Land
4. Jeff Nichols – Loving
5. Nate Parker – The Birth of a Nation

Next in line: 6. Ang Lee – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk 7. Derek Cianfrance – The Light Between Oceans 8. Morten Tyldum – Passengers 9. Woody Allen – Café Society 10. Clint Eastwood – Sully

BEST ACTOR

1. Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
2. Ryan Gosling – La La Land (or The Nice Guys)
3. Michael Keaton – The Founder
4. Will Smith – Collateral Beauty
5. Michael Fassbender – The Light Between Oceans

Next in line: 6. Tom Hanks – Sully 7. Andrew Garfield – Silence 8. Chris Pratt – Passengers 9. Joel Edgerton – Loving 10. Joe Alwyn – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk

BEST ACTRESS

1. Amy Adams – Nocturnal Animals (or Story of Your Life)
2. Emma Stone – La La Land
3. Jennifer Lawrence – Passengers
4. Ruth Negga – Loving
5. Emily Blunt – The Girl on the Train

Next in line: 6. Jessica Chastain – The Zookeeper’s Wife 7. Emma Watson – The Circle 8. Alicia Vikander – The Light Between Oceans 9. Felicity Jones – Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 10. Rosamund Pike – A United Kingdom

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Liam Neeson – Silence
2. Steve Martin – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Michael Shannon – Loving
4. Kyle Chandler – Manchester by the Sea
5. Oscar Isaac – The Promise

Next in line: 6. Jeremy Renner – Story of Your Life 7. Adam Driver – Silence 8. Aaron Eckhart – Sully 9. Steve Carell – Café Society 10. Glen Powell – Everybody Wants Some

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Kristen Stewart – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (or Café Society)
2. Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
3. Rachel Weisz – The Light Between Oceans
4. Naomi Harris – Collateral Beauty
5. Shailene Woodley – Snowden

Next in line: 6. Laura Dern – The Founder 7. Jennifer Jason Leigh – LBJ 8. Laura Linney – Sully 9. Gretchen Mol – Manchester by the Sea 10. Kate Winslet – Collateral Beauty

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Manchester by the Sea
2. La La Land
3. Passengers
4. Loving
5. The Birth of a Nation

Next in line: 6. Café Society 7. The Nice Guys 8. The Lobster 9. Collateral Beauty 10. Everybody Wants Some

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Light Between Oceans
2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Silence
4. War Machine
5. Sully

Next in line: 6. The Zookeeper’s Wife 7. Story of Your Life 8. Nocturnal Animals 9. The Lost City of Z 10. Snowden

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Zootopia
2. Finding Dory
3. Sausage Party
4. Moana
5. The Secret Life of Pets

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Silence
2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Passengers
4. La La Land
5. The Lost City of Z

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Silence
2. La La Land
3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
4. Manchester by the Sea
5. The Circle

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Silence
2. The Light Between Oceans
3. Alice Through the Looking Glass
4. The Birth of a Nation
5. The Zookeeper’s Wife

BEST FILM EDITING

1. La La Land
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Silence
4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
5. Jason Bourne

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Alice Through the Looking Glass
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3. Silence

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2. La La Land
3. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
5. Jason Bourne

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2. La La Land
3. Independence Day: Resurgence
4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
5. Jason Bourne

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2. The BFG
3. Captain America: Civil War
4. The Jungle Book
5. Independence Day: Resurgence

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Story of Your Life
2. The Light Between Oceans
3. Finding Dory
4. Silence
5. The Birth of a Nation

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. La La Land
2. Sing Street
3. Moana
4. Sausage Party
5. Tumbledown

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Weiner
2. Time to Choose
3. Zero Days
4. Team Foxcatcher
5. Tickled

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

?

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

?

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

?

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

?

Stay tuned for another update to these early predictions next month!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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