Oscar predictions for the first half of December

80th Annual Academy Awards - "Parade of the Oscars"

All of a sudden, a matter of days can make someone’s predictions feel really out of date, can’t it? My Academy Awards predictions are overdue, no doubt about that, so that’s what is going down today. With the beginning of guild nominations and the influx of other precursors, the race is very much taking shape. There are surprises still to come, no doubt about that, but how things looked in late November is in no way how they appear to be now. So, it’s time to buckle down and try to figure out just what the Academy is going to do with their nominations this time around.

Below you’ll see what the most recent precursors and long list announcements have done to the Oscar race. Included is how I think the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild nominations have changed things, as well as whats no longer eligible due to the lists put out for the Best Original Score, Best Original Song, and Best Foreign Language Feature races. In short, I still have La La Land in the pole position, but things are tightening and there’s a day where Moonlight could be our winner. Damien Chazelle’s film seems poised to hold of Barry Jenkins’ one right now, though that might change. Also, don’t sleep on Kenneth Lonergan’s movie either. There’s a lot more still to come here folks, so sit tight and check out these Academy Award picks…

Here now are my latest Oscar predictions, reflecting what’s gone down over the past week:

BEST PICTURE

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Fences
5. Hell or High Water
6. Silence
7. Hacksaw Ridge
8. Lion
9. Hidden Figures
10. Arrival

Next in line: 11. Jackie 12. 20th Century Women 13. Captain Fantastic 14. Loving 15. Patriots Day 16. Sully 17. A Monster Calls 18. The Lobster 19. Miss Sloane 20. Rules Don’t Apply 21. The Edge of Seventeen 22. The Founder 23. Nocturnal Animals 24. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 25. Florence Foster Jenkins 26. Live by Night 27. Gold 28. Toni Erdmann 29. The Jungle Book 30. Bleed for This

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Damien Chazelle – La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
3. Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
4. Denzel Washington – Fences
5. Martin Scorsese – Silence

Next in line: 6. Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge 7. Denis Villenueve – Arrival 8. David Mackenzie – Hell or High Water 9. Pablo Larraín – Jackie 10. Garth Davis – Lion 11. Clint Eastwood – Sully 12. Mike Mills – 20th Century Women 13. Theodore Melfi – Hidden Figures 14. Jeff Nichols – Loving 15. Matt Ross – Captain Fantastic

BEST ACTOR

1. Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington – Fences
3. Ryan Gosling – La La Land
4. Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
5. Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge (or Silence)

Next in line: 6. Joel Edgerton – Loving 7. Tom Hanks – Sully 8. Michael Keaton – The Founder 9. Warren Beatty – Rules Don’t Apply 10. Matthew McConaughey – Gold 11. Miles Teller – Bleed for This 12. Jake Gyllenhaal – Nocturnal Animals 13. Mark Wahlberg – Patriots Day 14. Robert De Niro – The Comedian 15. Ben Affleck – Live By Night

BEST ACTRESS

1. Natalie Portman – Jackie
2. Emma Stone – La La Land
3. Amy Adams – Arrival
4. Annette Bening – 20th Century Women
5. Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins

Next in line: 6. Ruth Negga – Loving 7. Isabelle Huppert – Elle 8. Jessica Chastain – Miss Sloane 9. Taraji P. Henson – Hidden Figures 10. Hailee Steinfeld – The Edge of Seventeen 11. Rebecca Hall – Christine 12. Emily Blunt – The Girl on the Train 13. Jennifer Lawrence – Passengers 14. Kate Beckinsale – Love & Friendship 15. Rachel Weisz – Denial

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
2. Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
3. Dev Patel – Lion
4. Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea

Next in line: 6. Ben Foster – Hell or High Water 7. Kevin Costner – Hidden Figures 8. Peter Sarsgaard – Jackie 9. Mykelti Williamson – Fences 10. Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals 11. Alan Rickman – Eye in the Sky 12. Liam Neeson – Silence 13. Timothy Spall – Denial 14. Woody Harrelson – The Edge of Seventeen 15. Chris Messina – Live by Night

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Viola Davis – Fences
2. Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
3. Naomi Harris – Moonlight
4. Nicole Kidman – Lion
5. Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures

Next in line: 6. Greta Gerwig – 20th Century Women 7. Lily Gladstone – Certain Women 8. Molly Shannon – Other People 9. Janelle Monae – Hidden Figures 10. Helen Mirren – Eye in the Sky 11. Elle Fanning – 20th Century Women (or Live By Night) 12. Leslie Mann – The Comedian 13. Margo Martindale – The Hollars 14. Felicity Jones – A Monster Calls 15. Kristen Stewart – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (or Cafe Society)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Manchester by the Sea
2. La La Land
3. Hell or High Water
4. The Lobster
5. Captain Fantastic

Next in line: 6. 20th Century Women 7. Jackie 8. Patriots Day 9. Miss Sloane 10. Cafe Society 11. Paterson 12. Rules Don’t Apply 13. Everybody Wants Some 14. Toni Erdmann 15. Sausage Party

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Moonlight
2. Fences
3. Silence
4. Lion
5. Arrival

Next in line: 6. Hidden Figures 7. Loving 8. Hacksaw Ridge 9. Sully 10. Nocturnal Animals 11. A Monster Calls 12. Live by Night 13. The Handmaiden 14. Elle 15. Love & Friendship

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Zootopia
2. Kubo and the Two Strings
3. Moana
4. The Red Turtle
5. My Life as a Zucchini

Next in line: 6. Miss Hokusai 7. April and the Extraordinary World 8. Finding Dory 9. The Secret Life of Pets 10. Sausage Party 11. The Little Prince 12. Trolls 13. Sing 14. Kung Fu Panda 3 15. The Angry Birds Movie

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. La La Land
2. Silence
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
4. Rules Don’t Apply
5. Jackie

Next in line: 6. Love & Friendship 7. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk 8. Live By Night 9. Passengers 10. Arrival

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Silence
2. La La Land
3. Arrival
4. Moonlight
5. Nocturnal Animals

Next in line: 6. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk 7. Live by Night 8. The Handmaiden 9. Manchester by the Sea 10. Sully

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Jackie
2. La La Land
3. Silence
4. Love & Friendship
5. Nocturnal Animals

Next in line: 6. Captain Fantastic 7. Fences 8. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 9. Alice Through the Looking Glass 10. The Witch

BEST FILM EDITING

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Fences
4. Silence
5. Arrival

Next in line: 6. Manchester by the Sea 7. Jackie 8. Hell or High Water 9. Hacksaw Ridge 10. Sully

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Jackie
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Star Trek Beyond

Next in line: 6. Love & Friendship 7. La La Land 8. Alice Through the Looking Glass 9. Doctor Strange 10. Suicide Squad

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. La La Land
2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Hacksaw Ridge
5. Patriots Day

Next in line: 6. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 7. Deadpool 8. Sully 9. A Monster Calls 10. Silence

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. La La Land
2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Hacksaw Ridge
5. Deadpool

Next in line: 6. Jason Bourne 7. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 8. Sully 9. A Monster Calls 10. Silence

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Jungle Book
2. Doctor Strange
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Passengers
5. Arrival

Next in line: 6. Captain America: Civil War 7. The BFG 8. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 9. Kubo and the Two Strings 10. Deepwater Horizon

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Jackie
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
5. Hell or High Water

Next in line: 6. Lion 7. The BFG 8. Patriots Day 9. Finding Dory 10. Florence Foster Jenkins

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. La La Land – “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)”
2. Sing Street – “Drive It Like You Stole It
3. La La Land – “City of Stars”
4. Moana – “We Know the Way”
5. Trolls – “Can’t Stop the Feeling”

Next in line: 6. Sing Street – “Go Now” 7. Hidden Figures – “I See A Victory” 8. Sausage Party – “The Great Beyond” 9. Snowden – “The Veil” 10. Moana – “How Far I’ll Go”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. O.J.: Made in America
2. 13th
3. I Am Not Your Negro
4. Life, Animated
5. Weiner

Next in line: 6. Gleason 7. Cameraperson 8. Tower 9. Fire at Sea 10. The Eagle Huntress

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Toni Erdmann
2. Land of Mine
3. The Salesman
4. My Life as a Zucchini
5. It’s Only The End of the World

Next in line: 6. The King’s Choice 7. Paradise 8. Tanna 9. A Man Called Ove 10. N/A (Only Nine Titles Shortlisted)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Inner Workings
2. Pearl
3. Piper
4. Borrowed Time
5. Once Upon a Line

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. Joe’s Violin
2. The White Helmets
3. Frame 394
4. The Other Side of Home
5. Extremis

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Silent Nights
2. The Rifle, the Jackal, the Wolf and the Boy
3. Bon Voyage
4. Nocturne in Black
5. Timecode

Stay tuned for an update to these predictions in a week or so!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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