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Oscar predictions for the end of December

80th Annual Academy Awards - "Parade of the Oscars"
If it’s the final days of December (which it is), it must be time for an Academy Award prediction update! This is a notable one because it’s the last chance to try and get it right in 2016. Of course, next year will still have a handful of updates before nominations are announced, but it’s truly crunch time folks. As such, there’s a few notable changes below, as I try not just to figure out the snubs, but the surprises as well. It’s an inexact science still, with precursors of note to come, but for now, this seems like how it might go with the Academy’s picks.

Right now, I think we legitimately have a three horse race in Best Picture and Best Director between Damien Chazelle’s La La Land, Barry Jenkins’ Moonlight, and Kenneth Lonergan’s Manchester by the Sea. Yes, that’s more or less how all the precursors so far have gone, so it makes sense. Essentially, things have tightened up, to the point where it’s essentially a dead heat. Obviously, the Guilds could separate one from the pack, but it could very well end up that on Oscar night it’s still something close to a coin flip. It seems like none of the three are going to go home empty handed, so it’s just determining which ends up with the top prizes…

Here now is my final Oscar prediction update for 2016:

BEST PICTURE

1. La La Land
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Moonlight
4. Hell or High Water
5. Lion
6. Arrival
7. Hacksaw Ridge
8. Fences
9. Silence
10. Hidden Figures

Next in line: 11. Captain Fantastic 12. Jackie 13. 20th Century Women 14. Loving 15. Patriots Day 16. Sully 17. A Monster Calls 18. The Lobster 19. Miss Sloane 20. Rules Don’t Apply 21. The Edge of Seventeen 22. The Founder 23. Nocturnal Animals 24. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 25. Florence Foster Jenkins 26. Live by Night 27. Gold 28. Toni Erdmann 29. The Jungle Book 30. Bleed for This

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Damien Chazelle – La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
3. Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
4. Denis Villenueve – Arrival
5. Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge

Next in line: 6. Denzel Washington – Fences 7. Martin Scorsese – Silence 8. David Mackenzie – Hell or High Water 9. Pablo Larraín – Jackie 10. Garth Davis – Lion 11. Clint Eastwood – Sully 12. Mike Mills – 20th Century Women 13. Theodore Melfi – Hidden Figures 14. Jeff Nichols – Loving 15. Matt Ross – Captain Fantastic

BEST ACTOR

1. Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington – Fences
3. Ryan Gosling – La La Land
4. Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
5. Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge (or Silence)

Next in line: 6. Joel Edgerton – Loving 7. Tom Hanks – Sully 8. Michael Keaton – The Founder 9. Warren Beatty – Rules Don’t Apply 10. Matthew McConaughey – Gold 11. Miles Teller – Bleed for This 12. Jake Gyllenhaal – Nocturnal Animals 13. Mark Wahlberg – Patriots Day 14. Robert De Niro – The Comedian 15. Ben Affleck – Live By Night

BEST ACTRESS

1. Natalie Portman – Jackie
2. Emma Stone – La La Land
3. Amy Adams – Arrival
4. Annette Bening – 20th Century Women
5. Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins

Next in line: 6. Ruth Negga – Loving 7. Isabelle Huppert – Elle 8. Jessica Chastain – Miss Sloane 9. Taraji P. Henson – Hidden Figures 10. Hailee Steinfeld – The Edge of Seventeen 11. Rebecca Hall – Christine 12. Emily Blunt – The Girl on the Train 13. Jennifer Lawrence – Passengers 14. Kate Beckinsale – Love & Friendship 15. Rachel Weisz – Denial

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
2. Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
3. Dev Patel – Lion
4. Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea

Next in line: 6. Ben Foster – Hell or High Water 7. Kevin Costner – Hidden Figures 8. Peter Sarsgaard – Jackie 9. Mykelti Williamson – Fences 10. Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals 11. Alan Rickman – Eye in the Sky 12. Liam Neeson – Silence 13. Timothy Spall – Denial 14. Woody Harrelson – The Edge of Seventeen 15. Chris Messina – Live by Night

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Viola Davis – Fences
2. Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
3. Naomi Harris – Moonlight
4. Nicole Kidman – Lion
5. Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures

Next in line: 6. Greta Gerwig – 20th Century Women 7. Lily Gladstone – Certain Women 8. Molly Shannon – Other People 9. Janelle Monae – Hidden Figures 10. Helen Mirren – Eye in the Sky 11. Elle Fanning – 20th Century Women (or Live By Night) 12. Leslie Mann – The Comedian 13. Margo Martindale – The Hollars 14. Felicity Jones – A Monster Calls 15. Kristen Stewart – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (or Cafe Society)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Manchester by the Sea
2. La La Land
3. Hell or High Water
4. Captain Fantastic
5. The Lobster

Next in line: 6. 20th Century Women 7. Jackie 8. Patriots Day 9. Miss Sloane 10. Cafe Society 11. Paterson 12. Rules Don’t Apply 13. Everybody Wants Some 14. Toni Erdmann 15. Sausage Party

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Moonlight
2. Fences
3. Arrival
4. Lion
5. Silence

Next in line: 6. Hidden Figures 7. Loving 8. Hacksaw Ridge 9. Sully 10. Nocturnal Animals 11. A Monster Calls 12. Live by Night 13. The Handmaiden 14. Elle 15. Love & Friendship

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Zootopia
2. Kubo and the Two Strings
3. Moana
4. The Red Turtle
5. My Life as a Zucchini

Next in line: 6. Miss Hokusai 7. April and the Extraordinary World 8. Finding Dory 9. The Secret Life of Pets 10. Sausage Party 11. The Little Prince 12. Trolls 13. Sing 14. Kung Fu Panda 3 15. The Angry Birds Movie

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. La La Land
2. Silence
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
4. Rules Don’t Apply
5. Jackie

Next in line: 6. Love & Friendship 7. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk 8. Live By Night 9. Passengers 10. Arrival

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Silence
2. La La Land
3. Arrival
4. Moonlight
5. Nocturnal Animals

Next in line: 6. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk 7. Live by Night 8. The Handmaiden 9. Manchester by the Sea 10. Sully

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Jackie
2. La La Land
3. Silence
4. Love & Friendship
5. Nocturnal Animals

Next in line: 6. Captain Fantastic 7. Fences 8. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 9. Alice Through the Looking Glass 10. The Witch

BEST FILM EDITING

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Fences
4. Silence
5. Arrival

Next in line: 6. Manchester by the Sea 7. Jackie 8. Hell or High Water 9. Hacksaw Ridge 10. Sully

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Star Trek Beyond
2. Deadpool
3. A Man Called Ove

Next in line: 4. Suicide Squad 5. Hail, Caesar! 6. Florence Foster Jenkins 7. The Dressmaker 8. N/A (Only Seven Titles Shortlisted) 9. N/A (Only Seven Titles Shortlisted) 10. N/A (Only Seven Titles Shortlisted)

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. La La Land
2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Hacksaw Ridge
5. Patriots Day

Next in line: 6. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 7. Deadpool 8. Sully 9. A Monster Calls 10. Silence

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. La La Land
2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Hacksaw Ridge
5. Deadpool

Next in line: 6. Jason Bourne 7. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 8. Sully 9. A Monster Calls 10. Silence

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Jungle Book
2. Doctor Strange
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Passengers
5. Arrival

Next in line: 6. Captain America: Civil War 7. The BFG 8. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 9. Kubo and the Two Strings 10. Deepwater Horizon

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Jackie
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
5. Hell or High Water

Next in line: 6. Lion 7. The BFG 8. Patriots Day 9. Finding Dory 10. Florence Foster Jenkins

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. La La Land – “City of Stars”
2. La La Land – “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)”
3. Sing Street – “Drive It Like You Stole It
4. Moana – “We Know the Way”
5. Trolls – “Can’t Stop the Feeling”

Next in line: 6. Sing Street – “Go Now” 7. Hidden Figures – “I See A Victory” 8. Sausage Party – “The Great Beyond” 9. Snowden – “The Veil” 10. Moana – “How Far I’ll Go”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. O.J.: Made in America
2. 13th
3. I Am Not Your Negro
4. Life, Animated
5. Weiner

Next in line: 6. Gleason 7. Cameraperson 8. Tower 9. Fire at Sea 10. The Eagle Huntress

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Toni Erdmann
2. Land of Mine
3. The Salesman
4. My Life as a Zucchini
5. A Man Called Ove

Next in line: 6. It’s Only the End of the World 7. Paradise 8. Tanna 9. The King’s Choice 10. N/A (Only Nine Titles Shortlisted)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Inner Workings
2. Pearl
3. Piper
4. Borrowed Time
5. Once Upon a Line

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. Joe’s Violin
2. The White Helmets
3. Frame 394
4. The Other Side of Home
5. Extremis

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Silent Nights
2. The Rifle, the Jackal, the Wolf and the Boy
3. Bon Voyage
4. Nocturne in Black
5. Timecode

Stay tuned for an update to these predictions in a week or so, kicking off 2017 in style!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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