June 23, 2017

Final Golden Globe predictions

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This weekend, the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is going try and make a mark on the precursor season when the Golden Globe awards are announced. Sunday brings the big ceremony for the HFPA, with the Globes chiming in on the race. As a precursor with no real Oscar crossover, you can’t really do too much correlation with the Academy Awards, but it’s worth considering in some small way. Of course, we all know that already. Today I’ll be bringing you my official final predictions for the show, along with a tiny bit of analysis. Come next week, we’ll try and see if there’s anything to be taken from it going forward, but for now, let me just see if I can accurately predict the winners.

Below you will see my Golden Globe picks in advance of the show. I’ve also thrown in a little blurb about each category, more or less summarizing them in a sentence. Quickly though, I will say that I’m playing it safe with my predictions. There’s certainly room for upsets in a number of categories, but I’m sticking with a good night for the big three of La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, and Moonlight. There’s a world in which Deadpool manages to score a win too, likely for Ryan Reynolds in Best Actor (Comedy or Musical), for example. Again, don’t put too much stock in what the Globes say, but don’t completely discount them either. Anyway, on to the choices…

Here now are my final Globe predictions:

Best Picture (Drama)

1. Moonlight
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Hacksaw Ridge
4. Hell or High Water
5. Lion

[This is a two horse race…either Manchester by the Sea or Moonlight wins]

Best Picture (Comedy or Musical)

1. La La Land
2. Florence Foster Jenkins
3. Deadpool
4. 20th Century Women
5. Sing Street

[This seems like La La Land in a walk]

Best Actor (Drama)

1. Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington – Fences
3. Viggo Mortensen – Captatin Fantastic
4. Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge
5. Joel Edgerton – Loving

[Toss a coin here between Casey Affleck and Denzel Washington]

Best Actor (Comedy or Musical)

1. Ryan Gosling – La La Land
2. Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins
3. Ryan Reynolds – Deadpool
4. Colin Farrell – The Lobster
5. Jonah Hill – War Dogs

[Hypothetically any of the top four could win, but I would be surprised if Ryan Gosling didn’t take it]

Best Actress (Drama)

1. Natalie Portman – Jackie
2. Amy Adams – Arrival
3. Isabelle Huppert – Elle
4. Jessica Chastain – Miss Sloane
5. Ruth Negga – Loving

[Watch out for Isabelle Huppert here, and Amy Adams is always a threat, but the safe bet is Natalie Portman]

Best Actress (Comedy or Musical)

1. Emma Stone – La La Land
2. Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
3. Annette Bening – 20th Century Women
4. Hailee Steinfeld – The Edge of Seventeen
5. Lily Collins – Rules Don’t Apply

[It would be very surprising if Emma Stone doesn’t win here]

Best Supporting Actor

1. Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
2. Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
3. Dev Patel – Lion
4. Simon Helberg – Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Aaron Taylor-Johnson – Nocturnal Animals

[Barring a Jeff Bridges upset, this belongs to Mahershala Ali]

Best Supporting Actress

1. Viola Davis – Fences
2. Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
3. Nicole Kidman – Lion
4. Naomie Harris – Moonlight
5. Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures

[It’s almost a guarantee that Viola Davis wins here]

Best Director

1. Damien Chazelle – La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
3. Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
4. Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge
5. Tom Ford – Nocturnal Animals

[Damien Chazelle seems like the smart play, though watch out for Barry Jenkins]

Best Screenplay

1. Manchester by the Sea
2. Moonlight
3. La La Land
4. Hell or High Water
5. Nocturnal Animals

[Manchester by the Sea and Kenneth Lonergan makes the most sense here, but anything could win, honestly]

Best Animated Feature

1. Zootopia
2. Kubo and the Two Strings
3. Moana
4. My Life as a Zucchini
5. Sing

[It looks like Zootopia’s to lose, though Kubo and the Two Strings is certainly in play]

Best Original Score

1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Moonlight
4. Lion
5. Hidden Figures

[La La Land should take this one]

Best Original Song

1. La La Land (City of Stars)
2. Moana (How Far I’ll Go)
3. Trolls (Can’t Stop The Feeling)
4. Sing (Faith)
5. Gold (Gold)

[Probably chalk up another win for La La Land]

Best Foreign Film

1. Toni Erdmann
2. Elle
3. The Salesman
4. Neruda
5. Devine

[Elle has a real chance, but Toni Erdmann seems slightly more likely]

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Stay tuned to see who and what takes home Golden Globes on Sunday night!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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