Penultimate Oscar predictions before the nominations are announced

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It’s not far off. In less than a week now, the Academy Award nominations will be announced. Voting has come to an end, so the results basically have been tabulated. It’s just a waiting game at this point. Like an expectant parent, you’ll find me pacing around, a concerned look on my face. What will the Academy do? Will La La Land tied the record for most nominations by a single film? Will any other movie come close to matching that one’s total? Those questions and more are what I’m attempting to pin down. You’ll see what I’m predicting below, but just remember…these aren’t my final picks just yet.

I know it’s only been a few days since the last update, but that’s the nature of the beast in this final week. What you’ll see below is a very small change to these Oscar picks. Mainly, it’s just last minute forward momentum for contenders like Emily Blunt for The Girl on the Train, Aaron Taylor-Johnson for Nocturnal Animals (plus a bit for the film itself), and even perhaps Janelle Monae for either Hidden Figures or Moonlight. I’ve also played around a bit more with the technical categories, but I’ll really hammer those home next week in the final update. For now, just know that the techs are on my mind plenty and are hardly being ignored. Anyway, on to the predictions…

Here now is my second to last Oscar predictions update:

BEST PICTURE

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Lion
5. Arrival
6. Hell or High Water
7. Hidden Figures
8. Hacksaw Ridge
9. Fences
10. Captain Fantastic

Next in line: 11. Silence 12. Nocturnal Animals 13. 20th Century Women 14. Jackie 15. Deadpool 16. Sully 17. Loving 18. The Lobster 19. Patriots Day 20. Miss Sloane 21. The Edge of Seventeen 22. Rules Don’t Apply 23. The Founder 24. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 25. Florence Foster Jenkins 26. A Monster Calls 27. Live by Night 28. Toni Erdmann 29. The Jungle Book 30. Bleed for This

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Damien Chazelle – La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
3. Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
4. Denis Villenueve – Arrival
5. David Mackenzie – Hell or High Water

Next in line: 6. Garth Davis – Lion 7. Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge 8. Martin Scorsese – Silence 9. Denzel Washington – Fences 10. Pablo Larraín – Jackie 11. Clint Eastwood – Sully 12. Mike Mills – 20th Century Women 13. Theodore Melfi – Hidden Figures 14. Jeff Nichols – Loving 15. Matt Ross – Captain Fantastic

BEST ACTOR

1. Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington – Fences
3. Ryan Gosling – La La Land
4. Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
5. Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge

Next in line: 6. Joel Edgerton – Loving 7. Tom Hanks – Sully 8. Ryan Reynolds – Deadpool 9. Michael Keaton – The Founder 10. Jake Gyllenhaal – Nocturnal Animals 11. Matthew McConaughey – Gold 12. Miles Teller – Bleed for This 13. Warren Beatty – Rules Don’t Apply 14. Mark Wahlberg – Patriots Day 15. Robert De Niro – The Comedian

BEST ACTRESS

1. Emma Stone – La La Land
2. Natalie Portman – Jackie
3. Amy Adams – Arrival
4. Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Isabelle Huppert – Elle

Next in line: 6. Annette Bening – 20th Century Women 7. Emily Blunt – The Girl on the Train 8. Ruth Negga – Loving 9. Jessica Chastain – Miss Sloane 10. Taraji P. Henson – Hidden Figures 11. Hailee Steinfeld – The Edge of Seventeen 12. Rebecca Hall – Christine 13. Jennifer Lawrence – Passengers 14. Kate Beckinsale – Love & Friendship 15. Rachel Weisz – Denial

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
2. Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
3. Dev Patel – Lion
4. Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea

Next in line: 6. Ben Foster – Hell or High Water 7. Aaron Taylor Johnson – Nocturnal Animals 8. Kevin Costner – Hidden Figures 9. Peter Sarsgaard – Jackie 10. Mykelti Williamson – Fences 11. Liam Neeson – Silence 12. Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals 13. Issey Ogata – Silence 14. Woody Harrelson – The Edge of Seventeen 15. Alan Rickman – Eye in the Sky

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Viola Davis – Fences
2. Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
3. Naomi Harris – Moonlight
4. Nicole Kidman – Lion
5. Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures

Next in line: 6. Janelle Monae – Hidden Figures (or Moonlight) 7. Greta Gerwig – 20th Century Women (or Jackie) 8. Lily Gladstone – Certain Women 9. Molly Shannon – Other People 10. Helen Mirren – Eye in the Sky 11. Elle Fanning – 20th Century Women (or Live By Night) 12. Leslie Mann – The Comedian 13. Margo Martindale – The Hollars 14. Felicity Jones – A Monster Calls 15. Kristen Stewart – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (or Cafe Society)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Manchester by the Sea
2. La La Land
3. Hell or High Water
4. The Lobster
5. 20th Century Women

Next in line: 6. Captain Fantastic 7. Jackie 8. Patriots Day 9. Kubo and the Two Strings 10. Cafe Society 11. Miss Sloane 12. Zootopia 13. Everybody Wants Some 14. Toni Erdmann 15. Paterson

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Moonlight
2. Arrival
3. Hidden Figures
4. Lion
5. Fences

Next in line: 6. Loving 7. Deadpool 8. Hacksaw Ridge 9. Silence 10. Nocturnal Animals 11. Sully 12. The Handmaiden 13. A Monster Calls 14. Elle 15. Love & Friendship

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Zootopia
2. Kubo and the Two Strings
3. Moana
4. The Red Turtle
5. My Life as a Zucchini

Next in line: 6. Miss Hokusai 7. April and the Extraordinary World 8. Finding Dory 9. Sing 10. Sausage Party 11. The Little Prince 12. The Secret Life of Pets 13. Trolls 14. Kung Fu Panda 3 15. The Angry Birds Movie

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Hacksaw Ridge
4. Jackie
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Next in line: 6. Silence 7. Love & Friendship 8. Rules Don’t Apply 9. Kubo and the Two Strings 10. Hidden Figures

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. La La Land
2. Silence
3. Arrival
4. Moonlight
5. Lion

Next in line: 6. Nocturnal Animals 7. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 8. The Handmaiden 9. Manchester by the Sea 10. Sully

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Jackie
2. La La Land
3. Florence Foster Jenkins
4. Nocturnal Animals
5. Captain Fantastic

Next in line: 6. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 7. Allied 8. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 9. The Dressmaker 10. Kubo and the Two Strings

BEST FILM EDITING

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Arrival
5. Hell or High Water

Next in line: 6. Lion 7. Hacksaw Ridge 8. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 9. Silence 10. Deadpool

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Deadpool
2. Star Trek Beyond
3. A Man Called Ove

Next in line: 4. Florence Foster Jenkins 5. Hail, Caesar! 6. The Dressmaker 7. Suicide Squad 8. N/A (Only Seven Titles Shortlisted) 9. N/A (Only Seven Titles Shortlisted) 10. N/A (Only Seven Titles Shortlisted)

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. La La Land
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Arrival
5. Deepwater Horizon

Next in line: 6. Deadpool 7. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk 8. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 9. Sully 10. Patriots Day

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. La La Land
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Arrival
5. Deadpool

Next in line: 6. Sully 7. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk 8. Patriots Day 9. A Monster Calls 10. Jason Bourne

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Jungle Book
2. Doctor Strange
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Arrival
5. Kubo and the Two Strings

Next in line: 6. Captain America: Civil War 7. The BFG 8. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 9. Passengers 10. Deepwater Horizon

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Jackie
5. Lion

Next in line: 6. Hell or High Water 7. The BFG 8. Patriots Day 9. Finding Dory 10. Florence Foster Jenkins

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. La La Land – “City of Stars”
2. Moana – “We Know the Way”
3. La La Land – “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)”
4. Sing Street – “Drive It Like You Stole It
5. Trolls – “Can’t Stop the Feeling”

Next in line: 6. Sing Street – “Go Now” 7. Hidden Figures – “I See A Victory” 8. Sausage Party – “The Great Beyond” 9. Snowden – “The Veil” 10. Moana – “How Far I’ll Go”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. O.J.: Made in America
2. Gleason
3. 13th
4. Life, Animated
5. Cameraperson

Next in line: 6. I Am Not Your Negro 7. Weiner 8. Tower 9. Fire at Sea 10. The Eagle Huntress

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Toni Erdmann
2. Land of Mine
3. The Salesman
4. My Life as a Zucchini
5. A Man Called Ove

Next in line: 6. Paradise 7. It’s Only the End of the World 8. Tanna 9. The King’s Choice 10. N/A (Only Nine Titles Shortlisted)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Inner Workings
2. Pearl
3. Piper
4. Borrowed Time
5. Once Upon a Line

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. Joe’s Violin
2. The White Helmets
3. Frame 394
4. The Other Side of Home
5. The Mute’s House

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Silent Nights
2. The Rifle, the Jackal, the Wolf and the Boy
3. Bon Voyage
4. Nocturne in Black
5. Timecode

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Be sure to check back on Monday for final predictions before the nominations are announced on Tuesday morning!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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