Final (pre nomination) Oscar predictions – Can “La La Land” tie the all time record?

82nd Annual Academy Awards - Red Carpet Activities - March 3, 2010
Playtime is over. In less than 24 hours, the Academy Award nominations are going to be revealed. It’s exciting, right? It all comes down to this. I finalized my predictions last night and resisted the urge to go over them again this morning, since at this point I probably can only do harm. At a certain juncture, you just begin overthinking things. It’s been out of the voters’ hands for well over a week now, and there’s no more information to be ascertained. It’s simply a matter of waiting for the announcement in less than a day. Tomorrow folks! I know I can’t wait, and I’m sure you feel the same way.

Below are my best guesses for how the nominations will go down. For those wondering, I’m actually out on a limb predicting La La Land to tie the all time record with 14 nominations. Bold, I know. I’m also nearly predicting Deadpool to upend things in a number of key spots, though I held off for the most part. We’ll see if I regret it. Obviously, it’s still the big three of La La Land, Manchester by the Sea, and Moonlight having the potential last laugh, though look for Arrival, Hell or High Water, and Lion to possibly do better than expected as well. Anyway, enough talk!

deadpool
Here now are my final Oscar predictions before the nominations are announced:

BEST PICTURE

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Lion
5. Arrival
6. Hell or High Water
7. Hidden Figures
8. Hacksaw Ridge
9. Fences
10. Captain Fantastic

Next in line: 11. Deadpool 12. Nocturnal Animals 13. Silence 14. Jackie 15. 20th Century Women 16. Sully 17. Loving 18. The Lobster 19. Patriots Day 20. Miss Sloane 21. The Edge of Seventeen 22. Rules Don’t Apply 23. The Founder 24. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 25. Florence Foster Jenkins 26. A Monster Calls 27. Live by Night 28. Toni Erdmann 29. The Jungle Book 30. Bleed for This

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Damien Chazelle – La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
3. Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
4. Denis Villenueve – Arrival
5. David Mackenzie – Hell or High Water

Next in line: 6. Garth Davis – Lion 7. Martin Scorsese – Silence 8. Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge 9. Denzel Washington – Fences 10. Pablo Larraín – Jackie 11. Clint Eastwood – Sully 12. Mike Mills – 20th Century Women 13. Theodore Melfi – Hidden Figures 14. Jeff Nichols – Loving 15. Matt Ross – Captain Fantastic

BEST ACTOR

1. Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington – Fences
3. Ryan Gosling – La La Land
4. Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
5. Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge

Next in line: 6. Joel Edgerton – Loving 7. Michael Keaton – The Founder 8. Ryan Reynolds – Deadpool 9. Jake Gyllenhaal – Nocturnal Animals 10. Tom Hanks – Sully 11. Sunny Pawar – Lion 12. Matthew McConaughey – Gold 13. Warren Beatty – Rules Don’t Apply 14. Mark Wahlberg – Patriots Day 15. Adam Driver – Paterson

BEST ACTRESS

1. Emma Stone – La La Land
2. Natalie Portman – Jackie
3. Amy Adams – Arrival
4. Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Isabelle Huppert – Elle

Next in line: 6. Emily Blunt – The Girl on the Train 7. Annette Bening – 20th Century Women 8. Ruth Negga – Loving 9. Taraji P. Henson – Hidden Figures 10. Jessica Chastain – Miss Sloane 11. Hailee Steinfeld – The Edge of Seventeen 12. Rebecca Hall – Christine 13. Jennifer Lawrence – Passengers 14. Kate Beckinsale – Love & Friendship 15. Rachel Weisz – Denial

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
2. Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
3. Dev Patel – Lion
4. Hugh Grant – Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea

Next in line: 6. Aaron Taylor-Johnson – Nocturnal Animals 7. Ben Foster – Hell or High Water 8. Kevin Costner – Hidden Figures 9. Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals 10. Mykelti Williamson – Fences 11. Liam Neeson – Silence 12. Peter Sarsgaard – Jackie 13. Issey Ogata – Silence 14. Woody Harrelson – The Edge of Seventeen 15. Alan Rickman – Eye in the Sky

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Viola Davis – Fences
2. Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
3. Naomi Harris – Moonlight
4. Nicole Kidman – Lion
5. Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures

Next in line: 6. Janelle Monae – Hidden Figures (or Moonlight) 7. Greta Gerwig – 20th Century Women (or Jackie) 8. Helen Mirren – Eye in the Sky 9. Lily Gladstone – Certain Women 10. Molly Shannon – Other People 11. Hayley Squires – I, Daniel Blake 12. Leslie Mann – The Comedian 13. Margo Martindale – The Hollars 14. Felicity Jones – A Monster Calls 15. Elle Fanning – 20th Century Women (or Live By Night)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Manchester by the Sea
2. La La Land
3. Hell or High Water
4. The Lobster
5. Captain Fantastic

Next in line: 6. Kubo and the Two Strings 7. 20th Century Women 8. Jackie 9. Toni Erdmann 10. Zootopia 11. Florence Foster Jenkins 12. Patriots Day 13. I, Daniel Blake 14. Miss Sloane 15. Paterson

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Moonlight
2. Arrival
3. Hidden Figures
4. Lion
5. Hacksaw Ridge

Next in line: 6. Fences 7. Deadpool 8. Nocturnal Animals 9. Loving 10. Silence 11. Sully 12. The Handmaiden 13. A Monster Calls 14. Elle 15. Love & Friendship

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Zootopia
2. Kubo and the Two Strings
3. Moana
4. The Red Turtle
5. My Life as a Zucchini

Next in line: 6. Miss Hokusai 7. Sing 8. April and the Extraordinary World 9. Finding Dory 10. Sausage Party 11. The Little Prince 12. The Secret Life of Pets 13. Trolls 14. Kung Fu Panda 3 15. The Angry Birds Movie

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Hacksaw Ridge
4. Jackie
5. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them

Next in line: 6. Silence 7. Kubo and the Two Strings 8. Rules Don’t Apply 9. Hail, Caesar! 10. Hidden Figures

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Moonlight
4. Silence
5. Lion

Next in line: 6. Nocturnal Animals 7. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 8. The Handmaiden 9. Live by Night 10. Jackie

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Jackie
2. La La Land
3. Florence Foster Jenkins
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
5. Captain Fantastic

Next in line: 6. Nocturnal Animals 7. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 8. Allied 9. The Dressmaker 10. Kubo and the Two Strings

BEST FILM EDITING

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Arrival
5. Hell or High Water

Next in line: 6. Lion 7. Hacksaw Ridge 8. Silence 9. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 10. Deadpool

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Deadpool
2. Star Trek Beyond
3. A Man Called Ove

Next in line: 4. Florence Foster Jenkins 5. The Dressmaker 6. Hail, Caesar! 7. Suicide Squad 8. N/A (Only Seven Titles Shortlisted) 9. N/A (Only Seven Titles Shortlisted) 10. N/A (Only Seven Titles Shortlisted)

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. La La Land
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Arrival
5. Deepwater Horizon

Next in line: 6. Deadpool 7. The Jungle Book 8. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice 9. Sully 10. Patriots Day

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Hacksaw Ridge
2. La La Land
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Arrival
5. Deadpool

Next in line: 6. Sully 7. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk 8. Patriots Day 9. A Monster Calls 10. Jason Bourne

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Jungle Book
2. Arrival
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Doctor Strange
5. Kubo and the Two Strings

Next in line: 6. Captain America: Civil War 7. Deepwater Horizon 8. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 9. The BFG 10. Passengers

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Lion
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
5. The BFG

Next in line: 6. Hell or High Water 7. Jackie 8. Patriots Day 9. Nocturnal Animals 10. Florence Foster Jenkins

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. La La Land – “City of Stars”
2. Moana – “How Far I’ll Go”
3. La La Land – “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)”
4. Sing Street – “Drive It Like You Stole It”
5. Hidden Figures – “Runnin”

Next in line: 6. Trolls – “Can’t Stop the Feeling” 7. Moana – “We Know the Way” 8. Sausage Party – “The Great Beyond” 9. Snowden – “The Veil” 10. Sing Street – “Go Now”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. O.J.: Made in America
2. 13th
3. Gleason
4. Life, Animated
5. Cameraperson

Next in line: 6. I Am Not Your Negro 7. Weiner 8. Tower 9. Fire at Sea 10. The Witness

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Toni Erdmann
2. Land of Mine
3. The Salesman
4. My Life as a Zucchini
5. A Man Called Ove

Next in line: 6. Paradise 7. It’s Only the End of the World 8. Tanna 9. The King’s Choice 10. N/A (Only Nine Titles Shortlisted)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Inner Workings
2. Pearl
3. Piper
4. Borrowed Time
5. Once Upon a Line

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. Joe’s Violin
2. The White Helmets
3. Frame 394
4. The Other Side of Home
5. The Mute’s House

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Silent Nights
2. The Rifle, the Jackal, the Wolf and the Boy
3. Bon Voyage
4. Nocturne in Black
5. Timecode

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Just one more day to go…

81st Annual Academy Awards Set Up at the Kodak Theatre in Hollywood on February 21, 2009
Stay tuned for the nominations tomorrow morning and my reaction piece after!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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