February 21, 2017

A first set of post nomination Oscar predictions

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Phase Two is officially upon us folks. The Academy Awards are now only a month away, with nominations having been announced earlier this week. Now, we move into the abbreviated period where the guild awards come hot and heavy, more or less wrapping up what Oscar voters will likely do in February. As such, right before the final precursors begin chiming in, it seems only appropriate to do some new predictions. These won’t be evolving too much over the weeks to come, but it’s important to keep the flow going, to show you what changes come about, should they come about. Only some of the mystery has been solved, with more to be figured out.

Below you will see my initial crack at trying to figure out what the Academy might do now that they have finished with Phase One and nominations. Basically, I’ve kept the status quo for now, with La La Land very much in the pole position across the board. Both Manchester by the Sea and Moonlight manage wins, while everything else more or less goes as expected. That can change over the weekend once the Producers Guild of America and the Screen Actors Guild chime in with their awards, but for now, at this brief juncture, this is where things stand. Stick around and see what happens next…

Here now are my newest Oscar predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Lion
5. Arrival
6. Hell or High Water
7. Hacksaw Ridge
8. Fences
9. Hidden Figures

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Damien Chazelle – La La Land
2. Barry Jenkins – Moonlight
3. Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
4. Denis Villenueve – Arrival
5. Mel Gibson – Hacksaw Ridge

BEST ACTOR

1. Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
2. Denzel Washington – Fences
3. Ryan Gosling – La La Land
4. Viggo Mortensen – Captain Fantastic
5. Andrew Garfield – Hacksaw Ridge

BEST ACTRESS

1. Emma Stone – La La Land
2. Natalie Portman – Jackie
3. Isabelle Huppert – Elle
4. Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins
5. Ruth Negga – Loving

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Mahershala Ali – Moonlight
2. Jeff Bridges – Hell or High Water
3. Dev Patel – Lion
4. Lucas Hedges – Manchester by the Sea
5. Michael Shannon – Nocturnal Animals

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Viola Davis – Fences
2. Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
3. Naomi Harris – Moonlight
4. Nicole Kidman – Lion
5. Octavia Spencer – Hidden Figures

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Manchester by the Sea
2. La La Land
3. Hell or High Water
4. The Lobster
5. 20th Century Women

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Moonlight
2. Arrival
3. Lion
4. Hidden Figures
5. Fences

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Zootopia
2. Kubo and the Two Strings
3. Moana
4. The Red Turtle
5. My Life as a Zucchini

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. La La Land
2. Arrival
3. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
4. Hail, Caesar!
5. Passengers

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Arrival
4. Silence
5. Lion

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Jackie
2. La La Land
3. Florence Foster Jenkins
4. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
5. Allied

BEST FILM EDITING

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Arrival
4. Hacksaw Ridge
5. Hell or High Water

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Star Trek Beyond
2. A Man Called Ove
3. Suicide Squad

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. La La Land
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Arrival
5. 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. La La Land
2. Hacksaw Ridge
3. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
4. Arrival
5. Sully

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. The Jungle Book
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3. Doctor Strange
4. Deepwater Horizon
5. Kubo and the Two Strings

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. La La Land
2. Moonlight
3. Jackie
4. Lion
5. Passengers

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. La La Land – “City of Stars”
2. Moana – “How Far I’ll Go”
3. La La Land – “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)”
4. Trolls – “Can’t Stop the Feeling”
5. Jim: The James Foley Story – “The Empty Chair”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. O.J.: Made in America
2. 13th
3. Life, Animated
4. I Am Not Your Negro
5. Fire at Sea

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Toni Erdmann
2. Land of Mine
3. The Salesman
4. A Man Called Ove
5. Tanna

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Piper
2. Pearl
3. Borrowed Time
4. Blind Vaysha
5. Pearl Cider and Cigarettes

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. Joe’s Violin
2. The White Helmets
3. Extremis
4. 4.1 Miles
5. Watani: My Homeland

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Silent Nights
2. Timecode
3. Ennemis Interieurs
4. Sing
5. La Femme et le TGV

Stay tuned for an update to these predictions early next month, potentially even next week!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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