April 27, 2017

“Dunkirk”: Oscar predictions for April


I know, it’s still early. It’s April, which is absurdly early to be thinking about the Oscars. That being said, there’s certainly fun to be had in contemplating early predictions. The Academy just announced some small rule changes last week, mainly some simple housekeeping, though they did make things a little different in two particular categories. One is that things like last year’s winner OJ: Made in America are no longer eligible in Best Documentary Feature, while the other is that a wider swarth of voters will be nominating in Best Animated Feature now. Will that result in different nominees? Quite possibly, though we shall see. What it did, however, was spur me on to do this update…

Below you will see a slightly new look at what Oscar could end up doing. A lot of the contenders are the same right now, as you might imagine, but that’s just the nature of the beast. At this point, worry less about placement and pay more attention to what’s listed. For example, I don’t currently have The Greatest Showman in a ton of categories, but it’s one with a ton of upward mobility. Keep an eye on the big ones like Dunkirk as well, though everything is up in the air right now. Just take it all with a grain of salt.

Here now are updated Academy Award predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. The Post
2. Dunkirk
3. Darkest Hour
4. Mother!
5. Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Detroit Riots Movie
6. Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project
7. Molly’s Game
8. Downsizing
9. Battle of the Sexes
10. The Disaster Artist

Next in line: 11. The Greatest Showman 12. Call Me By Your Name 13. Suburbicon 14. Mudbound 15. The Current War 16. The Big Sick 17. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 18. Stronger 19. Tully 20. Wind River 21. Thank You For Your Service 22. Wonderstruck 23. The Glass Castle 24. Wonder Wheel 25. Chappaquiddick

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
2. Steven Spielberg – The Post
3. Darren Aronofsky – Mother!
4. Kathryn Bigelow – Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Detroit Riots Movie
5. Joe Wright – Darkest Hour

Next in line: 6. Paul Thomas Anderson – Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project 7. Alexander Payne – Downsizing 8. Aaron Sorkin – Molly’s Game 9. George Clooney – Suburbicon 10. James Franco – The Disaster Artist

BEST ACTOR

1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
2. Daniel Day-Lewis – Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project
3. Tom Hanks – The Post
4. Matt Damon – Downsizing
5. Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger

Next in line: 6. Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman (or Logan) 7. Joaquin Phoenix – You Were Never Really Here 8. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Current War 9. Liam Neeson – Felt 10. Jason Clarke – Chappaquiddick

BEST ACTRESS

1. Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game
2. Jennifer Lawrence – Mother!
3. Meryl Streep – The Post
4. Charlize Theron – Tully
5. Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes

Next in line: 6. Rooney Mara – Mary Madelene 7. Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 8. Tatiana Maslany – Stronger 9. Kristen Wiig – Downsizing 10. Brie Larson – The Glass Castle

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Bruce Dern – Chappaquiddick
2. Idris Elba – Molly’s Game
3. James Franco – The Disaster Artist
4. Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes
5. Ray Romano – The Big Sick

Next in line: 6. Kevin Costner – Molly’s Game 7. Michael Shannon – The Current War 8. Woody Harrelson – The Glass Castle 9. Jason Mitchell – Mudbound 10. Patrick Stewart – Logan

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Michelle Pfeiffer – Mother!
2. Michelle Williams – The Greatest Showman
3. Kate Mara – Chappaquiddick
4. Juno Temple – Wonder Wheel
5. Katherine Waterston – The Current War

Next in line: 6. Julianne Moore – Wonderstruck 7. Kirsten Dunst – The Beguiled 8. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound 9. Lesley Manville – Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project 10. Zoe Kazan – The Big Sick

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Mother!
2. Downsizing
3. The Post
4. Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Detroit Riots Movie
5. The Big Sick

Next in line: 6. Darkest Hour 7. Dunkirk 8. Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project 9. Wind River 10. Battle of the Sexes

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Molly’s Game
2. The Disaster Artist
3. Call Me By Your Name
4. Thank You For Your Service
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Next in line: 6. Mudbound 7. The Beguiled 8. Stronger 9. Wonderstruck 10. The Lost City of Z

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Coco
2. The LEGO Batman Movie
3. Cars 3
4. Ferdinand
5. Despicable Me 3

Next in line: 6. The LEGO Ninjago Movie 7. Blazing Samurai 8. Captain Underpants 9. Leap! 10. The Boss Baby

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Beauty and the Beast
4. Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project
5. Darkest Hour

Next in line: 6. The Lost City of Z 7. The Beguiled 8. Battle of the Sexes 9. The Current War 10. Blade Runner 2046

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project
4. Mother!
5. Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Detroit Riots Movie

Next in line: 6. Blade Runner 2049 7. Downsizing 8. The Beguiled 9. Triple Frontier 10. Darkest Hour

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project
2. Dunkirk
3. The Beguiled
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. The Greatest Showman

Next in line: 6. Mudbound 7. Beauty and the Beast 8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 9. Blade Runner 2046 10. The Lost City of Z

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. The Post
3. Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Detroit Riots Movie
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. Mother!

Next in line: 6. Darkest Hour 7. Blade Runner 2046 8. Molly’s Game 9. Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project 10. Downsizing

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2
3. Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project

Next in line: 4. Logan 5. The Lost City of Z 6. Spider-Man: Homecoming 7. Justice League 8. Thor: Ragnorak

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Spider-Man: Homecoming
4. Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Detroit Riots Movie
5. Blade Runner 2046

Next in line: 6. Justice League 7. Kong: Skull Island 8. Thor: Ragnorak 9. War for the Planet of the Apes 10. Alien: Covenant

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Detroit Riots Movie
4. Spider-Man: Homecoming
5. Blade Runner 2046

Next in line: 6. Justice League 7. Kong: Skull Island 8. Thor: Ragnorak 9. War for the Planet of the Apes 10. Alien: Covenant

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2. Dunkirk
3. War for the Planet of the Apes
4. Downsizing
5. Thor: Ragnorak

Next in line: 6. Blade Runner 2046 7. Kong: Skull Island 8. Justice League 9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets 10. Alien: Covenant

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Dunkirk
2. Mother!
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson Project
5. The Post

Next in line: 6. Blade Runner 2046 7. The Current War 8. Downsizing 9. Darkest Hour 10. The Lost City of Z

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. The Greatest Showman
2. Beauty and the Beast
3. Coco
4. Fifty Shades Darker
5. The LEGO Batman Movie

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

?

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

?

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

?

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

?

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

?

Stay tuned for an update to these early Oscar predictions at the beginning of next month!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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