May 29, 2017

“Wonderstruck”: Updated Oscar Predictions for May

As the Cannes Film Festival begins this week in earnest, it seems like a solid enough time to check in with some new Academy Award predictions. The festival may very well change the game, so as per the usual around this time, consider these predictions little more than a temporary placeholder. June will potentially look rather different than May, and so on, so simply keep that in mind. As for the specifics, you’ll be able to find that out shortly, but keep an eye on what Cannes has going on. They’re the belle of the ball currently, as it were. As the weather gets hotter, the potential contenders will start to reveal themselves, though as you know, it isn’t until the cold air returns that we really know what’s what. That’s just how it goes.

What you’ll see below is a very slightly tinkered with update for this month. One thing you’ll probably notice is that Wonderstruck from Todd Haynes has entered the fray in a big way, while I’ve pumped the breaks on Mother! from Darren Aronofsky. For now, it’s just a matter of the material so far suggesting something a bit less “prestige” and more “genre”, though obviously we’ll see as the year progresses. Right at this moment, it’s still basically just a guessing game. Cannes might provide some hints, but we’ll see (as much as anything, they might help establish some of the foreign contenders). Technically, they already have, considering how Wonderstruck has debuted to some excellent reviews. Sit tight for updates on the fest itself, but first, it’s predictions time…

Here now is an updated look at Oscar predictions, right as Cannes gets underway:

BEST PICTURE

1. The Post
2. Dunkirk
3. Darkest Hour
4. Wonderstruck
5. Detroit
6. Phantom Thread
7. Molly’s Game
8. Downsizing
9. Battle of the Sexes
10. The Disaster Artist

Next in line: 11. The Greatest Showman 12. Call Me By Your Name 13. Suburbicon 14. Mother! 15. The Current War 16. The Big Sick 17. Mudbound 18. Stronger 19. The Glass Castle 20. Marshall 21. Thank You For Your Service 22. Wonder Wheel 23. Wind River 24. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 25. Chappaquiddick

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
2. Steven Spielberg – The Post
3. Joe Wright – Darkest Hour
4. Kathryn Bigelow – Detroit
5. Todd Haynes – Wonderstruck

Next in line: 6. Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread 7. Alexander Payne – Downsizing 8. Aaron Sorkin – Molly’s Game 9. George Clooney – Suburbicon 10. Darren Aronofsky – Mother!

BEST ACTOR

1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
2. Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
3. Tom Hanks – The Post
4. Matt Damon – Downsizing
5. Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger

Next in line: 6. Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman (or Logan) 7. Joaquin Phoenix – You Were Never Really Here 8. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Current War 9. Liam Neeson – Felt 10. Sam Elliott – The Hero

BEST ACTRESS

1. Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game
2. Jennifer Lawrence – Mother!
3. Meryl Streep – The Post
4. Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes

Next in line: 6. Rooney Mara – Mary Madelene 7. Carey Mulligan – Mudbound 8. Tatiana Maslany – Stronger 9. Kristen Wiig – Downsizing 10. Brie Larson – The Glass Castle

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Bruce Dern – Chappaquiddick
2. Idris Elba – Molly’s Game
3. James Franco – The Disaster Artist
4. Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes
5. Woody Harrelson – The Glass Castle

Next in line: 6. Kevin Costner – Molly’s Game 7. Ray Romano – The Big Sick 8. Michael Shannon – The Current War 9. Jason Mitchell – Mudbound 10. Patrick Stewart – Logan

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Michelle Pfeiffer – Mother!
2. Michelle Williams – The Greatest Showman (or Wonderstruck)
3. Kate Mara – Chappaquiddick
4. Juno Temple – Wonder Wheel
5. Katherine Waterston – The Current War

Next in line: 6. Julianne Moore – Wonderstruck 7. Kirsten Dunst – The Beguiled 8. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound 9. Lesley Manville – Phantom Thread 10. Zoe Kazan – The Big Sick

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Mother!
2. Downsizing
3. The Post
4. Detroit
5. The Big Sick

Next in line: 6. Darkest Hour 7. Dunkirk 8. Phantom Thread 9. Wind River 10. Battle of the Sexes

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Molly’s Game
2. The Disaster Artist
3. Wonderstruck
4. Call Me By Your Name
5. Thank You For Your Service

Next in line: 6. Mudbound 7. The Glass Castle 8. The Beguiled 9. Stronger 10. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Coco
2. The LEGO Batman Movie
3. Cars 3
4. Ferdinand
5. The LEGO Ninjago Movie

Next in line: 6. Despicable Me 3 7. Blazing Samurai 8. Captain Underpants 9. Leap! 10. The Boss Baby

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Beauty and the Beast
4. Phantom Thread
5. Darkest Hour

Next in line: 6. The Greatest Showman 7. The Beguiled 8. Battle of the Sexes 9. The Current War 10. Blade Runner 2046

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Phantom Thread
4. Wonderstruck
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Next in line: 6. Detroit 7. Downsizing 8. Mother! 9. The Greatest Showman 10. Darkest Hour

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Phantom Thread
2. Dunkirk
3. The Beguiled
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. The Greatest Showman

Next in line: 6. Mudbound 7. Beauty and the Beast 8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 9. Blade Runner 2046 10. The Lost City of Z

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. The Post
3. Detroit
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. Wonderstruck

Next in line: 6. Darkest Hour 7. Blade Runner 2046 8. Mother! 9. Phantom Thread 10. Downsizing

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2
3. Phantom Thread

Next in line: 4. Logan 5. The Lost City of Z 6. Spider-Man: Homecoming 7. Justice League 8. Thor: Ragnorak

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Spider-Man: Homecoming
4. Detroit
5. Blade Runner 2046

Next in line: 6. Justice League 7. Kong: Skull Island 8. Thor: Ragnorak 9. War for the Planet of the Apes 10. Alien: Covenant

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Detroit
4. Spider-Man: Homecoming
5. Blade Runner 2046

Next in line: 6. Justice League 7. Kong: Skull Island 8. Thor: Ragnorak 9. War for the Planet of the Apes 10. Alien: Covenant

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2. Dunkirk
3. War for the Planet of the Apes
4. Downsizing
5. Thor: Ragnorak

Next in line: 6. Blade Runner 2046 7. Wonder Woman 8. Justice League 9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets 10. Alien: Covenant

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Dunkirk
2. Wonderstruck
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Mother!
5. The Post

Next in line: 6. Blade Runner 2046 7. Phantom Thread 8. Downsizing 9. Darkest Hour 10. The Current War

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. The Greatest Showman
2. Beauty and the Beast
3. Coco
4. Fifty Shades Darker
5. The LEGO Batman Movie

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Risk
2. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power
3. Cries from Syria
4. Last Men in Aleppo
5. Nobody Speak: Hulk Hogan, Gawker and Trials of a Free Press

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Happy End
2. Loveless
3. Redoubtable
4. The Workshop
5. Nobody’s Watching

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

?

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

?

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

?

Stay tuned for an update to these still early Oscar predictions at the beginning of next month!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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