"Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri": October Oscar predictions                "Get Out" leads the Gotham Award nominations                'Blade Runner 2049,' 'The Disaster Artist' to be Honored at Hollywood Film Awards                Hollywood Contenders – Looking at Best Original Screenplay hopefuls                Todd Haynes explores the world of children with "Wonderstruck"                MUDBOUND and COCO to be Honored at Hollywood Film Awards                "The Killing of a Sacred Deer" pairs Colin Farrell and Nicole Kidman once again                "Wonder Wheel" closes NYFF with a commanding Kate Winslet turn                Sam Rockwell and Allison Janney to Receive Hollywood Supporting Actor and Hollywood Supporting Actress Awards at "Hollywood Film Awards"                Hollywood Contenders – Looking at Best Adapted Screenplay hopefuls                "Breathe" aims to return Andrew Garfield to Oscar contention                Mary J. Blige, Timothée Chalamet and the Cast of "I, Tonya" - Margot Robbie, Allison Janney, Sebastian Stan, Paul Walter Hauser to be honored at the 21st Annual "Hollywood Film Awards."                New Trailer drops for "Star Wars: The Last Jedi"                "Goodbye Christopher Robin" reveals the origins of Winnie the Pooh                Hollywood Contenders – Looking at Best Supporting Actress hopefuls        

“The Papers” from Steven Spielberg: Updated Oscar predictions for June


As temperatures rise, it may seem a bit silly to be thinking about what the Academy could do in the middle of the winter. Still, that’s what I do, so with the New York Film Festival announcing their Opening Night Selection, now feels like a good point to check in on Oscar. We’re still another month or so away from really having any sense of what the first half of the year has to offer, in terms of Oscars. Honestly, the only thing that so far seems like it could last the rest of the season is Brett Haley’s The Hero, specifically for Sam Elliott’s lead performance. He could certainly score a nomination in Best Actor. Aside from that, it’s looking like 2017 will be a second half sort of year.

This time around, there’s some upward movement for Alexander Payne’s Downsizing, the inclusion of Richard Linklater’s Last Flag Flying, and a few other tinkers. There’s also Steven Spielberg’s Pentagon Papers project going to the new title of The Papers, after having previously been called The Post. My big limb in Best Picture so far continues to be James Franco’s The Disaster Artist, which A24 is going to try to push towards an unconventional nomination. So much is in flux, this is all still very much a shot in the dark. By the end of the summer, hopefully we’ll have a better sense of what’s what. In the meantime, enjoy these new picks for the month…

Here now are some updated Oscar predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. The Papers
2. Dunkirk
3. Darkest Hour
4. Downsizing
5. Detroit
6. Phantom Thread
7. Molly’s Game
8. The Greatest Showman
9. Last Flag Flying
10. The Disaster Artist

Next in line: 11. Suburbicon 12. Call Me By Your Name 13. Battle of the Sexes 14. The Current War 15. Mother!The Beguiled 16. The Beguiled 17. Mudbound 18. Stronger 19. The Glass Castle 20. Wonder Wheel 21. The Big Sick 22. Thank You For Your Service 23. Wind River 24. 25. The Hero 26. Wonderstruck 27. Marshall 28. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 29. The Silent Man 30. The Florida Project

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
2. Steven Spielberg – The Papers
3. Joe Wright – Darkest Hour
4. Kathryn Bigelow – Detroit
5. Alexander Payne – Downsizing

Next in line: 6. Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread 7. George Clooney – Suburbicon 8. Darren Aronofsky – Mother! 9. Todd Haynes – Wonderstruck 10. Sofia Coppola – The Beguiled

BEST ACTOR

1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
2. Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
3. Tom Hanks – The Papers
4. Matt Damon – Downsizing
5. Sam Elliott – The Hero

Next in line: 6. Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman (or Logan) 7. Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger 8. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Current War 9. Liam Neeson – The Silent Man 10. Joaquin Phoenix – You Were Never Really Here

BEST ACTRESS

1. Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game
2. Jennifer Lawrence – Mother!
3. Meryl Streep – The Papers
4. Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes

Next in line: 6. Rooney Mara – Mary Madelene 7. Carey Mulligan – Mudbound 8. Tatiana Maslany – Stronger 9. Kristen Wiig – Downsizing 10. Brie Larson – The Glass Castle

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Bruce Dern – Chappaquiddick
2. Idris Elba – Molly’s Game
3. James Franco – The Disaster Artist
4. Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes (or Last Flag Flying)
5. Woody Harrelson – The Glass Castle

Next in line: 6. Kevin Costner – Molly’s Game 7. Ray Romano – The Big Sick 8. Michael Shannon – The Current War 9. Jason Mitchell – Mudbound 10. Mark Hamill – Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Michelle Pfeiffer – Mother!
2. Michelle Williams – The Greatest Showman (or Wonderstruck)
3. Kate Mara – Chappaquiddick
4. Juno Temple – Wonder Wheel
5. Katherine Waterston – The Current War

Next in line: 6. Kirsten Dunst – The Beguiled 7. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound 8. Carrie Fisher – Star Wars: The Last Jedi 9. Nicole Kidman – The Beguiled 10. Zoe Kazan – The Big Sick

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Mother!
2. Downsizing
3. The Papers
4. Detroit
5. The Big Sick

Next in line: 6. Darkest Hour 7. Dunkirk 8. Phantom Thread 9. Wind River 10. Battle of the Sexes

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Molly’s Game
2. The Disaster Artist
3. Mudbound
4. Call Me By Your Name
5. Thank You For Your Service

Next in line: 6. The Beguiled 7. The Glass Castle 8. Wonderstruck 9. Stronger 10. Last Flag Flying

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Coco
2. The LEGO Batman Movie
3. Cars 3
4. Ferdinand
5. The LEGO Ninjago Movie

Next in line: 6. Despicable Me 3 7. Blazing Samurai 8. Captain Underpants 9. Leap! 10. The Boss Baby

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Beauty and the Beast
4. Phantom Thread
5. Darkest Hour

Next in line: 6. The Greatest Showman 7. The Beguiled 8. Battle of the Sexes 9. The Current War 10. Blade Runner 2046

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Phantom Thread
4. Wonderstruck
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Next in line: 6. Detroit 7. Downsizing 8. Mother! 9. The Greatest Showman 10. Darkest Hour

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Phantom Thread
2. Dunkirk
3. The Beguiled
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. The Greatest Showman

Next in line: 6. Mudbound 7. Beauty and the Beast 8. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 9. Blade Runner 2046 10. The Lost City of Z

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. The Papers
3. Detroit
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. Downsizing

Next in line: 6. Darkest Hour 7. Blade Runner 2046 8. Mother! 9. Phantom Thread 10. Wonderstruck

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2
3. Phantom Thread

Next in line: 4. Logan 5. The Lost City of Z 6. Spider-Man: Homecoming 7. Justice League 8. Thor: Ragnorak

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Spider-Man: Homecoming
4. Detroit
5. Blade Runner 2046

Next in line: 6. Justice League 7. Kong: Skull Island 8. Thor: Ragnorak 9. War for the Planet of the Apes 10. Alien: Covenant

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Detroit
4. Spider-Man: Homecoming
5. Blade Runner 2046

Next in line: 6. Justice League 7. Kong: Skull Island 8. Thor: Ragnorak 9. War for the Planet of the Apes 10. Alien: Covenant

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2. Dunkirk
3. War for the Planet of the Apes
4. Downsizing
5. Thor: Ragnorak

Next in line: 6. Blade Runner 2046 7. Wonder Woman 8. Justice League 9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets 10. Alien: Covenant

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Dunkirk
2. Wonderstruck
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Mother!
5. The Papers

Next in line: 6. Blade Runner 2046 7. Phantom Thread 8. Downsizing 9. Darkest Hour 10. The Current War

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. The Greatest Showman
2. The Hero
3. Coco
4. Beauty and the Beast
5. Fifty Shades Darker

Next in line: 6. The Greatest Showman 7. The LEGO Batman Movie 8. ? 9. ? 10. ?

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Risk
2. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power
3. Cries from Syria
4. Last Men in Aleppo
5. Nobody Speak: Hulk Hogan, Gawker and Trials of a Free Press

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. BPM: Beats Per Minute
2. Loveless
3. The Square
4. Happy Ending
5. Nobody’s Watching

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Olaf’s Frozen Adventure
2. Lou
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

?

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

?

Stay tuned for an update to these still rather early Oscar predictions at the beginning of next month!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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