Trailer drops for Paul Thomas Anderson's "Phantom Thread"                The Big Sick, Jamie Bell and Stand Up for Something to be Honored at Hollywood Film Awards                "Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri": October Oscar predictions                "Get Out" leads the Gotham Award nominations                'Blade Runner 2049,' 'The Disaster Artist' to be Honored at Hollywood Film Awards                Hollywood Contenders – Looking at Best Original Screenplay hopefuls                Todd Haynes explores the world of children with "Wonderstruck"                MUDBOUND and COCO to be Honored at Hollywood Film Awards                "The Killing of a Sacred Deer" pairs Colin Farrell and Nicole Kidman once again                "Wonder Wheel" closes NYFF with a commanding Kate Winslet turn                Sam Rockwell and Allison Janney to Receive Hollywood Supporting Actor and Hollywood Supporting Actress Awards at "Hollywood Film Awards"                Hollywood Contenders – Looking at Best Adapted Screenplay hopefuls                "Breathe" aims to return Andrew Garfield to Oscar contention                Mary J. Blige, Timothée Chalamet and the Cast of "I, Tonya" - Margot Robbie, Allison Janney, Sebastian Stan, Paul Walter Hauser to be honored at the 21st Annual "Hollywood Film Awards."                New Trailer drops for "Star Wars: The Last Jedi"        

“The Disaster Artist”: September Oscar predictions


It’s slowly turning into the fall, weather wise. At the same time, the films are beginning to become more and more prestige laden. The Academy Awards are still a ways off, but predictions need to continually evolve, now that we’re more than halfway through the festival season. As such, a laser focus on the awards season is what’s required now. Only a select few Oscar hopefuls have yet to screen for any pundits, and with that, there aren’t a lot of X factors in the race. You’ll shortly see what I think it all will turn out as for now, but this is just a drop in the bucket. The real moves will be made over the coming weeks. Stay tuned there.

First, a bit of housekeeping to take care of. We’ve had Lean on Pete and You Were Never Really Here turn into 2018 releases, so cross them off. They’re out of the 2017 calendar and awards race. Below, you’ll see my picks for the moment, including a big surge for The Disaster Artist. The lineup always looks better with a big crowd pleaser, and this film could end up being the one. That’s just one change that you’ll notice within these predictions, but there are plenty more to be found. Sift through them and prepare for even more next month, as it’s just that time of year…

Here now are my up to date Oscar predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. Dunkirk
2. The Post
3. The Shape of Water
4. Battle of the Sexes
5. Darkest Hour
6. Call Me By Your Name
7. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
8. The Big Sick
9. Wonder Wheel
10. The Disaster Artist

Next in line: 11. Last Flag Flying 12. The Greatest Showman 13. Molly’s Game 14. Phantom Thread 15. Mudbound 16. The Florida Project 17. Detroit 18. Downsizing 19. mother! 20. Blade Runner 2049 21. Stronger 22. Goodbye Christopher Robin 23. I, Tonya 24. All the Money in the World 25. Wonderstruck 26. Wind River 27. Lady Bird 28. Suburbicon 29. The 15:17 to Paris 30. Wonder Woman

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
2. Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
3. Steven Spielberg – The Post
4. Joe Wright – Darkest Hour
5. Valerie Faris and Jonathan Dayton – Battle of the Sexes

Next in line: 6. Luca Guadagnino – Call Me By Your Name 7. Woody Allen – Wonder Wheel 8. Richard Linklater – Last Flag Flying 9. Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 10. Darren Aronofsky – mother! 11. Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread 12. Alexander Payne – Downsizing 13. Michael Gracey – The Greatest Showman 14. James Franco – The Disaster Artist 15. Denis Villeneuve – Blade Runner 2049

BEST ACTOR

1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
2. Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
3. Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger
4. Tom Hanks – The Post
5. James Franco – The Disaster Artist

Next in line: 6. Matt Damon – Downsizing (or Suburbicon) 7. Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman (or Logan) 8. Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes (or Last Flag Flying) 9. Jeremy Renner – Wind River 10. Sam Elliott – The Hero 11. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Current War 12. Timothée Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name 13. Andrew Garfield – Breathe 14. Andy Serkis – War for the Planet of the Apes 15. Adam Sandler – The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)

BEST ACTRESS

1. Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game
2. Kate Winslet – Wonder Wheel
3. Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes
4. Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
5. Meryl Streep – The Post

Next in line: 6. Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 7. Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul 8. Jennifer Lawrence – mother! 9. Annette Bening – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool 10. Tatiana Maslany – Stronger 11. Margot Robbie – I, Tonya 12. Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird 13. Carey Mulligan – Mudbound 14. Claire Foy – Breathe 15. Daniela Vega – A Fantastic Woman

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project (Could go Lead)
2. Idris Elba – Molly’s Game
3. Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name
4. Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Ben Mendelsohn – Darkest Hour

Next in line: 6. Michael Shannon – The Shape of Water (or The Current War) 7. Mark Rylance – Dunkirk 8. Michael Stulhbarg – Call Me By Your Name 9. Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water 10. Jason Mitchell – Mudbound 11. Will Poulter – Detroit 12. Kevin Costner – Molly’s Game 13. Patrick Stewart – Logan 14. Ray Romano – The Big Sick 15. Bruce Dern – Chappaquiddick

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Allison Janney – I, Tonya
2. Michelle Williams – The Greatest Showman (or All The Money In The World or Wonderstruck)
3. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
4. Hong Chau – Downsizing
5. Michelle Pfeiffer – mother!

Next in line: 6. Miranda Richardson – Stronger 7. Kristen Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour 8. Lois Smith – Marjorie Prime 9. Juno Temple – Wonder Wheel 10. Melissa Leo – Novitiate 11. Holly Hunter – The Big Sick 12. Nicole Kidman – The Beguiled (or The Killing of a Sacred Deer) 13. Margot Robbie – Goodbye Christopher Robin 14. Kirsten Dunst – The Beguiled 15. Julianne Moore – Suburbicon (or Wonderstruck)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. The Shape of Water
2. Wonder Wheel
3. The Big Sick
4. The Post
5. Darkest Hour

Next in line: 6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 7. Battle of the Sexes 8. Dunkirk 9. Detroit 10. The Florida Project 11. Downsizing 12. Phantom Thread 13. Wind River 14. mother! 15. Suburbicon

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Disaster Artist
2. Molly’s Game
3. Last Flag Flying
4. Call Me By Your Name
5. Mudbound

Next in line: 6. The Death of Stalin 7. Stronger 8. The Beguiled 9. Wonderstruck 10. Logan 11. Victoria and Abdul 12. The 15:17 to Paris 13. Thank You For Your Service 14. Blade Runner 2049 15. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Coco
2. The LEGO Batman Movie
3. Loving Vincent
4. Cars 3
5. The LEGO Ninjago Movie

Next in line: 6. Despicable Me 3 7. Ferdinand 8. The Breadwinner 9. Blazing Samurai 10. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie 11. The Boss Baby 12. The Star 13. My Little Pony: The Movie 14. Leap! 15. My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Dunkirk
4. Beauty and the Beast
5. Phantom Thread

Next in line: 6. The Greatest Showman 7. The Shape of Water 8. Battle of the Sexes 9. The Disaster Artist 10. The Post 11. Darkest Hour 12. The Current War 13. The Beguiled 14. Downsizing 15. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Dunkirk
3. Wonderstruck
4. mother!
5. Phantom Thread

Next in line: 6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 7. Detroit 8. Downsizing 9. The Greatest Showman 10. Wonder Wheel 11. The Shape of Water 12. The Post 13. Darkest Hour 14. Call Me By Your Name 15. The Beguiled

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Phantom Thread
2. The Greatest Showman
3. The Beguiled
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. Wonder Wheel

Next in line: 6. Dunkirk 7. Beauty and the Beast 8. Mudbound 9. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 10. Battle of the Sexes 11. Blade Runner 2049 12. The Lost City of Z 13. Wonder Woman 14. Victoria and Abdul 15. The Post

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. The Post
3. The Shape of Water
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. Blade Runner 2049

Next in line: 6. Detroit 7. mother! 8. The Disaster Artist 9. Phantom Thread 10. Darkest Hour 11. Baby Driver 12. Last Flag Flying 13. Molly’s Game 14. The Greatest Showman 15. Wonderstruck

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2
3. Darkest Hour

Next in line: 4. All the Money in the World 5. The Shape of Water 6. Logan 7. Justice League 8. Thor: Ragnorak 9. Wonder Woman 10. Blade Runner 2049 11. Phantom Thread 12. Downsizing 13. Wonder Wheel 14. Victoria and Abdul 15. The Lost City of Z

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. The Greatest Showman
5. Baby Driver

Next in line: 6. Spider-Man: Homecoming 7. Kong: Skull Island 8. Detroit 9. War for the Planet of the Apes 10. Wonder Woman 11. Thor: Ragnorak 12. Transformers: The Last Knight 13. mother! 14. Justice League 15. Alien: Covenant

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. The Greatest Showman
5. Spider-Man: Homecoming

Next in line: 6. Baby Driver 7. Kong: Skull Island 8. Detroit 9. War for the Planet of the Apes 10. Wonder Woman 11. Thor: Ragnorak 12. Transformers: The Last Knight 13. mother! 14. Justice League 15. Alien: Covenant

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2. Dunkirk
3. War for the Planet of the Apes
4. Blade Runner 2049
5. Thor: Ragnorak

Next in line: 6. Wonder Woman 7. Downsizing 8. Justice League 9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets 10. Alien: Covenant 11. Murder on the Orient Express 12. Okja 13. Spider-Man: Homecoming 14. Logan 15. Transformers: The Last Knight

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Darkest Hour
5. The Post

Next in line: 6. Battle of the Sexes 7. Phantom Thread 8. Blade Runner 2049 9. The Greatest Showman 10. Coco 11. Three Billboards of Ebbing, Missouri 12. Baby Driver 13. War for the Planet of the Apes 14. Wind River 15. Wonderstruck

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. The Greatest Showman
2. The Hero
3. Coco
4. Beauty and the Beast
5. Detroit

Next in line: 6. The Greatest Showman 7. Chasing Coral 8. Battle of the Sexes 9. Beauty and the Beast 10. Fifty Shades Darker 11. The LEGO Batman Movie 12. Call Me By Your Name 13. A Ghost Story 14. ? 15. ?

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Risk
2. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power
3. Chasing Coral
4. The Final Year
5. Cries from Syria

6. Icarus 7. Nobody Speak: Trials of the Free Press 8. Last Men in Aleppo 9. City of Ghosts 10. 11/8/16 11. Super Size Me 2: Holy Chicken! 12. I Called Him Morgan 13. ? 14. ? 15. ?

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. First They Killed My Father
2. BPM: Beats Per Minute
3. Loveless
4. Happy Ending
5. The Square

6. A Fantastic Woman 7. In the Fade 8. The Divine Order 9. The Other Side of Hope 10. Thelma 11. On Body and Soul 12. Paradise 13. Men Don’t Cry 14. Woodpeckers 15. Nobody’s Watching

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Lou
2. Olaf’s Frozen Adventure
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

?

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

?


Stay tuned for a brand new set of predictions next month!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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