“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”: October Oscar predictions


Hot on the heels of the precursor season launching yesterday, I have a brand new set of Academy Award predictions to share with you all. There are some definite changes to be seen, with the most noteworthy being that Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri is really making a play towards the top of a lot of categories. Martin McDonagh’s film is quietly starting to seem like potentially the frontrunner in Best Picture. That’s just the buzz around town right now, buoyed by how amazing the movie actually is. How that’s handled is just one item on the docket today. Questions will soon be answered, and that’s pretty damn exciting folks.

Another thing you’ll likely notice is that I’ve moved The Post and Phantom Thread from predictions for now. They’re just outside of the nominated fields, at least until they either screen, confirm a 2017 release date, or just become less overt X factors. I’ve also removed The Current War completely, as The Weinstein Company pulled it from their calendar (also, the less said about them right now, the better). In addition, there’s the aforementioned surge for Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. That’s just a sample of what’s to come below. Take a look, of course, and just know that the changes will be coming hot and heavy now. The season is upon us…

Here now are some brand spanking new updates to my Oscar predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. Dunkirk
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. The Shape of Water
4. Darkest Hour
5. Call Me By Your Name
6. The Florida Project
7. I, Tonya
8. The Big Sick
9. Blade Runner 2049
10. The Disaster Artist

Next in line: 11. The Post 12. Last Flag Flying 13. Lady Bird 14. Battle of the Sexes 15. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 16. Mudbound 17. Phantom Thread 18. The Greatest Showman 19. Get Out 20. Molly’s Game 21. Downsizing 22. Detroit 23. mother! 24. Wonder Wheel 25. All the Money in the World 26. Stronger 27. Wonderstruck 28. Suburbicon 29. The 15:17 to Paris 30. Wonder Woman

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
2. Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
3. Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
4. Joe Wright – Darkest Hour
5. Denis Villeneuve – Blade Runner 2049

Next in line: 6. Steven Spielberg – The Post 7. Luca Guadagnino – Call Me By Your Name 8. Sean Baker – The Florida Project 9. Richard Linklater – Last Flag Flying 10. Valerie Faris and Jonathan Dayton – Battle of the Sexes 11. Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread 12. Jordan Peele – Get Out 13. Dee Rees – Mudbound 14. Darren Aronofsky – mother! 15. James Franco – The Disaster Artist

BEST ACTOR

1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
2. Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger
3. Steve Carell – Last Flag Flying (or Battle of the Sexes)
4. Andrew Garfield – Breathe
5. James Franco – The Disaster Artist

Next in line: 6. Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread 7. Tom Hanks – The Post 8. Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman (or Logan) 9. Sam Elliott – The Hero 10. Matt Damon – Downsizing (or Suburbicon) 11. Timothée Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name 12. Jeremy Renner – Wind River 13. Ryan Gosling – Blade Runner 2049 14. Andy Serkis – War for the Planet of the Apes 15. Adam Sandler – The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected)

BEST ACTRESS

1. Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
2. Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Kate Winslet – Wonder Wheel
4. Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game
5. Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes

Next in line: 6. Meryl Streep – The Post 7. Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water 8. Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul 9. Jennifer Lawrence – mother! 10. Annette Bening – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool 11. Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird 12. Diane Kruger – In the Fade 13. Gal Gadot – Wonder Woman l14. Zoe Kazan – The Big Sick 15. Daniela Vega – A Fantastic Woman

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project (Could go Lead)
2. Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name
4. Bryan Cranston – Last Flag Flying
5. Mark Rylance – Dunkirk

Next in line: 6. Ben Mendelsohn – Darkest Hour 7. Harrison Ford – Blade Runner 2049 8. Michael Stulhbarg – Call Me By Your Name 9. Michael Shannon – The Shape of Water 10. Idris Elba – Molly’s Game 11. Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water 12. Kevin Spacey – All the Money in the World 13. Will Poulter – Detroit 14. Dustin Hoffman – The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) 15. Patrick Stewart – Logan

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Allison Janney – I, Tonya
2. Claire Foy – Breathe
3. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
4. Melissa Leo – Novitiate
5. Tatiana Maslany – Stronger

Next in line: 6. Michelle Williams – The Greatest Showman (or All The Money In The World) 7. Kristen Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour 8. Hong Chau – Downsizing 9. Michelle Pfeiffer – mother! 10. Holly Hunter – The Big Sick 11. Miranda Richardson – Stronger 12. Nicole Kidman – The Beguiled (or The Killing of a Sacred Deer) 13. Lois Smith – Marjorie Prime 14. Juno Temple – Wonder Wheel 15. Julianne Moore – Suburbicon (or Wonderstruck)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. The Shape of Water
3. The Big Sick
4. I, Tonya
5. The Florida Project

Next in line: 6. The Post 7. Darkest Hour 8. Dunkirk 9. Lady Bird 10. Get Out 11. Battle of the Sexes 12. Phantom Thread 13. Detroit 14. Downsizing 15. Wonder Wheel

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Call Me By Your Name
2. The Disaster Artist
3. Mudbound
4. Molly’s Game
5. Last Flag Flying

Next in line: 6. The Death of Stalin 7. Stronger 8. The Beguiled 9. Wonderstruck 10. Logan 11. Victoria and Abdul 12. The 15:17 to Paris 13. Thank You For Your Service 14. Blade Runner 2049 15. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Coco
2. The LEGO Batman Movie
3. Loving Vincent
4. Cars 3
5. The LEGO Ninjago Movie

Next in line: 6. Despicable Me 3 7. Ferdinand 8. The Breadwinner 9. Blazing Samurai 10. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie 11. The Boss Baby 12. The Star 13. My Little Pony: The Movie 14. Leap! 15. My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Dunkirk
4. The Shape of Water
5. Beauty and the Beast

Next in line: 6. The Greatest Showman 7. Wonder Wheel 8. Battle of the Sexes 9. The Disaster Artist 10. The Post 11. Darkest Hour 12. Phantom Thread 13. The Beguiled 14. Downsizing 15. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Dunkirk
3. Wonder Wheel
4. The Shape of Water
5. mother!

Next in line: 6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 7. Mudbound 8. Phantom Thread 9. Darkest Hour 10. Downsizing 11. Wonderstruck 12. The Post 13. Call Me By Your Name 14. The Beguiled 15. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. The Beguiled
2. The Greatest Showman
3. Victoria and Abdul
4. Darkest Hour
5. Wonder Wheel

Next in line: 6. Dunkirk 7. Beauty and the Beast 8. Phantom Thread 9. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 10. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 11. Mudbound 12. Battle of the Sexes 13. Wonder Woman 14. Blade Runner 2049 15. The Lost City of Z

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. The Shape of Water
5. Blade Runner 2049

Next in line: 6. Darkest Hour 7. The Post 8. The Disaster Artist 9. mother! 10. Detroit 11. Phantom Thread 12. Last Flag Flying 13. Baby Driver 14. The Greatest Showman 15. Molly’s Game

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
2. Darkest Hour
3. I, Tonya

Next in line: 4. All the Money in the World 5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 6. The Shape of Water 7. Logan 8. Blade Runner 2049 9. Thor: Ragnorak 10. Wonder Woman 11. The Greatest Showman 12. Phantom Thread 13. Downsizing 14. Victoria and Abdul 15. Justice League

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. The Greatest Showman
5. Baby Driver

Next in line: 6. Spider-Man: Homecoming 7. Kong: Skull Island 8. Detroit 9. War for the Planet of the Apes 10. Wonder Woman 11. Thor: Ragnorak 12. Transformers: The Last Knight 13. mother! 14. Justice League 15. Alien: Covenant

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. The Greatest Showman
5. Wonder Woman

Next in line: 6. Baby Driver 7. Kong: Skull Island 8. Detroit 9. War for the Planet of the Apes 10. Spider-Man: Homecoming 11. Thor: Ragnorak 12. Transformers: The Last Knight 13. mother! 14. Justice League 15. Alien: Covenant

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Dunkirk
4. War for the Planet of the Apes
5. Thor: Ragnorak

Next in line: 6. Wonder Woman 7. Downsizing 8. Spider-Man: Homecoming 9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets 10. Justice League 11. Murder on the Orient Express 12. Okja 13. Alien: Covenant 14. Logan 15. Transformers: The Last Knight

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Darkest Hour
5. Three Billboards of Ebbing, Missouri

Next in line: 6. Battle of the Sexes 7. The Post 8. Blade Runner 2049 9. The Greatest Showman 10. Coco 11. Phantom Thread 12. Baby Driver 13. War for the Planet of the Apes 14. Wind River 15. Wonderstruck

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. The Greatest Showman
2. Coco
3. Beauty and the Beast
4. Fifty Shades Darker
5. The Hero

Next in line: 6. The Greatest Showman 7. Detroit 8. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power 9. Battle of the Sexes 10. Beauty and the Beast 11. Chasing Coral 12. Only The Brave 13. Call Me By Your Name 14. The LEGO Batman Movie 15. A Ghost Story

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Risk
2. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power
3. Chasing Coral
4. The Final Year
5. Cries from Syria

6. Icarus 7. Kedi 8. Last Men in Aleppo 9. City of Ghosts 10. Nobody Speak: Trials of the Free Press 11. Super Size Me 2: Holy Chicken! 12. 11/8/16 13. I Called Him Morgan 14. Strong Island 15. Jane

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. First They Killed My Father
2. BPM: Beats Per Minute
3. In the Fade
4. A Fantastic Woman
5. The Square

6. Happy End 7. Loveless 8. The Divine Order 9. Foxtrot 10. Tom of Finland 11. On Body and Soul 12. Thelma 13. Men Don’t Cry 14. Woodpeckers 15. The Insult

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Lou
2. Olaf’s Frozen Adventure
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

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BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

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Stay tuned for another update to Academy Award predictions early next month!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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