A second update to November Oscar predictions


For those of you not going shopping on Black Friday, today is also a noteworthy day in that it’s the final Friday of November. We’re days away from the embargo on The Post lifting (I’ve seen it but can’t say anything yet), while Phantom Thread is about to screen for the first time this weekend. Then, it’ll just be The Greatest Showman and Star Wars: The Last Jedi among unseen question marks this season. As such, now is a great time for new Academy Award predictions. The race is changing and about to change again. Let us take its temperature and see what’s what right now…

Below you will see yet another updated set of predictions. It does reflect having seen The Post, so make what you will of that, but it’s without having seen Phantom Thread yet, so just know that. For now, you’ll also notice upward mobility for Lady Bird, which is really in a great spot. Aside from that, a lot remains the same, with Dunkirk and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri poised to duke it out for Best Picture. As more precursors chime in, we’ll have a better idea of how accurate that is. For now, it seems as logical as any other outcome.

Here now is another update to my Oscar predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Dunkirk
3. The Shape of Water
4. Darkest Hour
5. Lady Bird
6. The Post
7. Call Me By Your Name
8. Get Out
9. The Florida Project
10. I, Tonya

Next in line: 11. The Big Sick 12. Mudbound 13. Phantom Thread 14. The Disaster Artist 15. Last Flag Flying 16. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 17. Battle of the Sexes 18. Blade Runner 2049 19. Molly’s Game 20. Detroit 21. The Greatest Showman 22. Downsizing 23. mother! 24. Wonder Wheel 25. All the Money in the World 26. Stronger 27. Wonderstruck 28. Suburbicon 29. The 15:17 to Paris 30. Wonder Woman

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
2. Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
3. Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
4. Joe Wright – Darkest Hour
5. Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird

Next in line: 6. Steven Spielberg – The Post 7. Luca Guadagnino – Call Me By Your Name 8. Sean Baker – The Florida Project 9. Denis Villeneuve – Blade Runner 2049 10. Jordan Peele – Get Out 11. Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread 12. Richard Linklater – Last Flag Flying 13. Dee Rees – Mudbound 14. Valerie Faris and Jonathan Dayton – Battle of the Sexes 15. James Franco – The Disaster Artist

BEST ACTOR

1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
2. Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
3. James Franco – The Disaster Artist
4. Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger
5. Tom Hanks – The Post

Next in line: 6. Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel Esq 7. Steve Carell – Last Flag Flying 8. Timothée Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name 9. Andrew Garfield – Breathe 10. Christian Bale – Hostiles 11. Adam Sandler – The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) 12. Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman (or Logan) 13. Robert Pattinson – Good Time 14. Matt Damon – Downsizing (or Suburbicon) 15. Sam Elliott – The Hero

BEST ACTRESS

1. Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
2. Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
3. Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
4. Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
5. Meryl Streep – The Post

Next in line: 6. Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game 7. Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes 8. Annette Bening – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool 9. Kate Winslet – Wonder Wheel 10. Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul 11. Diane Kruger – In the Fade 12. Vicky Krieps – Phantom Thread 13. Jennifer Lawrence – mother! 14. Zoe Kazan – The Big Sick 15. Gal Gadot – Wonder Woman

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
3. Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name
4. Bryan Cranston – Last Flag Flying
5. Mark Rylance – Dunkirk

Next in line: 6. Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes 7. Ben Mendelsohn – Darkest Hour 8. Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water 9. Jason Mitchell – Mudbound 10. Michael Stulhbarg – Call Me By Your Name 11. Garret Hedlund – Mudbound 12. Will Poulter – Detroit 13. Michael Shannon – The Shape of Water 14. Harrison Ford – Blade Runner 2049 15. Patrick Stewart – Logan

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
2. Allison Janney – I, Tonya
3. Holly Hunter – The Big Sick
4. Tatiana Maslany – Stronger
5. Lois Smith – Marjorie Prime

Next in line: 6. Melissa Leo – Novitiate 7. Kristen Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour 8. Hong Chau – Downsizing 9. Claire Foy – Breathe 10. Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water 11. Michelle Williams – The Greatest Showman 12. Tiffany Haddish – Girls Trip 13. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound 14. Michelle Pfeiffer – mother! 15. Leslie Manville – Phantom Thread

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Lady Bird
3. The Shape of Water
4. Get Out
5. The Big Sick

Next in line: 6. Darkest Hour 7. I, Tonya 8. The Florida Project 9. Dunkirk 10. Phantom Thread 11. The Post 12. Detroit 13. Battle of the Sexes 14. Coco 15. Wonder Wheel

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Call Me By Your Name
2. Mudbound
3. The Disaster Artist
4. Molly’s Game
5. Last Flag Flying

Next in line: 6. The Death of Stalin 7. Stronger 8. Wonderstruck 9. Blade Runner 2049 10. Logan 11. Victoria and Abdul 12. The Beguiled 13. Thank You For Your Service 14. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 15. The 15:17 to Paris

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Coco
2. Loving Vincent
3. The LEGO Batman Movie
4. The Breadwinner
5. Cars 3

Next in line: 6. The LEGO Ninjago Movie 7. The Girl Without Hands 8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie 9. Despicable Me 3 10. The Star 11. The Boss Baby 12. Ferdinand 13. In This Corner of the World 14. A Silent Voice 15. My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Dunkirk
4. The Shape of Water
5. Darkest Hour

Next in line: 6. Beauty and the Beast 7. Phantom Thread 8. Battle of the Sexes 9. The Disaster Artist 10. The Post 11. The Greatest Showman 12. Wonder Wheel 13. The Beguiled 14. Downsizing 15. Thor: Ragnarok

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Dunkirk
3. The Shape of Water
4. Darkest Hour
5. The Post

Next in line: 6. Wonder Wheel 7. Mudbound 8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 9. Wonderstruck 10. Lady Bird 11. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 12. Call Me By Your Name 13. The Beguiled 14. mother! 15. Downsizing

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Phantom Thread
2. The Beguiled
3. Beauty and the Beast
4. Victoria and Abdul
5. Wonder Wheel

Next in line: 6. The Post 7. Darkest Hour 8. The Greatest Showman 9. Dunkirk 10. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 11. Mudbound 12. Battle of the Sexes 13. Wonder Woman 14. Blade Runner 2049 15. The Lost City of Z

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. The Shape of Water
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. The Post

Next in line: 6. Darkest Hour 7. Lady Bird 8. Blade Runner 2049 9. I, Tonya 10. mother! 11. Phantom Thread 12. Last Flag Flying 13. Baby Driver 14. The Disaster Artist 15. Molly’s Game

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Darkest Hour
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. I, Tonya

Next in line: 4. Logan 5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 6. The Shape of Water 7. Wonder Woman 8. Blade Runner 2049 9. Thor: Ragnorak 10. Justice League 11. The Greatest Showman 12. Phantom Thread 13. Downsizing 14. Victoria and Abdul 15. All the Money in the World

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Baby Driver
5. Detroit

Next in line: 6. The Greatest Showman 7. Spider-Man: Homecoming 8. Wonder Woman 9. War for the Planet of the Apes 10. Kong: Skull Island 11. Thor: Ragnorak 12. Transformers: The Last Knight 13. mother! 14. Justice League 15. Alien: Covenant

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Wonder Woman
5. Detroit

Next in line: 6. Baby Driver 7. The Greatest Showman 8. The Shape of Water 9. War for the Planet of the Apes 10. Spider-Man: Homecoming 11. Thor: Ragnorak 12. Transformers: The Last Knight 13. mother! 14. Kong: Skull Island 15. Alien: Covenant

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Dunkirk
4. War for the Planet of the Apes
5. Thor: Ragnorak

Next in line: 6. Wonder Woman 7. The Shape of Water 8. Spider-Man: Homecoming 9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets 10. Downsizing 11. Justice League 12. Okja 13. Alien: Covenant 14. Logan 15. Transformers: The Last Knight

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Darkest Hour
5. Three Billboards of Ebbing, Missouri

Next in line: 6. The Post 7. Victoria and Abdul 8. Blade Runner 2049 9. Battle of the Sexes 10. Coco 11. Phantom Thread 12. The Greatest Showman 13. Baby Driver 14. Wind River 15. Wonderstruck

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Coco
2. The Greatest Showman
3. Beauty and the Beast
4. Detroit
5. The Hero

Next in line: 6. Fifty Shades Darker 7. Thank You For Your Service 8. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power 9. Battle of the Sexes 10. Marshall 11. Chasing Coral 12. Only The Brave 13. Call Me By Your Name 14. The LEGO Batman Movie 15. A Ghost Story

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Jane
2. Cries from Syria
3. Chasing Coral
4. City of Ghosts
5. Icarus

6. Risk 7. Long Strange Trip 8. The Final Year 9. Kedi 10. Last Men in Aleppo 11. Human Flow 12. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power 13. Nobody Speak: Trials of the Free Press 14. Strong Island 15. Jim & Andy: The Great Beyond – With a Very Special, Contractually Obligated Mention of Tony Clifton

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. BPM: Beats Per Minute
2. First They Killed My Father
3. In the Fade
4. A Fantastic Woman
5. The Square

6. Happy End 7. Loveless 8. The Divine Order 9. Foxtrot 10. Tom of Finland 11. On Body and Soul 12. Thelma 13. Men Don’t Cry 14. Woodpeckers 15. The Insult

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Lou
2. Olaf’s Frozen Adventure
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

Stay tuned for an update to these predictions early on next month!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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