A December Oscar predictions update


It’s just about time to kick things into a whole new gear. That’s right, I’m talking about weekly updates to my Academy Award predictions. Considering how we’re in the final month of 2017, it’s apt. These are the last days of the current calendar year, so anything hoping to get Oscar love had better reveal itself soon. Aside from potentially All the Money in the World, The Greatest Showman, and Star Wars: The Last Jedi, everything has been seen, embargo or no embargo. This will all change in the next week or so, which is exciting. Crunch time folks! That’s where we’re at now.

Below are a completely new set of picks, utilizing some critics groups wins (New York and Los Angeles), the National Board of Review citations, and some thoughts about what the Golden Globes will do next week (final Globe predictions will be up on Friday). What you’ll see here is that reflection, as well as some general hunches on my part. Notably, I’ve at least temporarily gone out on a limb and put Lady Bird into the number one spot for Best Picture. That may change, but for the moment, that’s where I’m at. Other changes across the board can be seen, so let us cut to the chase and get down to brass tacks…

Here now are my latest Oscar predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. Lady Bird
2. Dunkirk
3. The Post
4. Call Me By Your Name
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6. The Shape of Water
7. The Florida Project
8. Get Out
9. Darkest Hour
10. I, Tonya

Next in line: 11. Mudbound 12. Phantom Thread 13. The Disaster Artist 14. The Big Sick 15. Last Flag Flying 16. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 17. Battle of the Sexes 18. Blade Runner 2049 19. Molly’s Game 20. Detroit 21. The Greatest Showman 22. Downsizing 23. mother! 24. Wonder Woman 25. All the Money in the World 26. Stronger 27. Wonderstruck 28. Logan 29. Coco 30. Wonder Wheel

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
2. Steven Spielberg – The Post
3. Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
4. Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
5. Luca Guadagnino – Call Me By Your Name

Next in line: 6. Joe Wright – Darkest Hour 7. Sean Baker – The Florida Project 8. Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 9. Jordan Peele – Get Out 10. Dee Rees – Mudbound 11. Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread 12. Craig Gillespie – I, Tonya 13. Denis Villeneuve – Blade Runner 2049 14. Valerie Faris and Jonathan Dayton – Battle of the Sexes 15. James Franco – The Disaster Artist

BEST ACTOR

1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
2. Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
3. James Franco – The Disaster Artist
4. Tom Hanks – The Post
5. Timothée Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name

Next in line: 6. Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger 7. Christian Bale – Hostiles 8. Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel Esq 9. Steve Carell – Last Flag Flying 10. Andrew Garfield – Breathe 10. 11. Adam Sandler – The Meyerowitz Stories (New and Selected) 12. Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman (or Logan) 13. Robert Pattinson – Good Time 14. Matt Damon – Downsizing (or Suburbicon) 15. Sam Elliott – The Hero

BEST ACTRESS

1. Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
2. Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
3. Meryl Streep – The Post
4. Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water

Next in line: 6. Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game 7. Vicky Krieps – Phantom Thread 8. Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes 9. Annette Bening – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool 10. Kate Winslet – Wonder Wheel 11. Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul 12. Diane Kruger – In the Fade 13. Jennifer Lawrence – mother! 14. Zoe Kazan – The Big Sick 15. Gal Gadot – Wonder Woman

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
2. Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name
4. Mark Rylance – Dunkirk
5. Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes

Next in line: 6. Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water 7. Bryan Cranston – Last Flag Flying 8. Ben Mendelsohn – Darkest Hour 9. Jason Mitchell – Mudbound 10. Michael Stulhbarg – Call Me By Your Name 11. Garret Hedlund – Mudbound 12. Will Poulter – Detroit 13. Michael Shannon – The Shape of Water 14. Harrison Ford – Blade Runner 2049 15. Patrick Stewart – Logan

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
2. Allison Janney – I, Tonya
3. Holly Hunter – The Big Sick
4. Leslie Manville – Phantom Thread
5. Lois Smith – Marjorie Prime

Next in line: 6. Melissa Leo – Novitiate 7. Tiffany Haddish – Girls Trip 8. Tatiana Maslany – Stronger 9. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound 10. Kristen Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour 11. Hong Chau – Downsizing 12. Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water 13. Claire Foy – Breathe 14. Michelle Williams – The Greatest Showman 15. Michelle Pfeiffer – mother!

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Lady Bird
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Get Out
4. Phantom Thread
5. The Big Sick

Next in line: 6. The Shape of Water 7. Darkest Hour 8. The Florida Project 9. The Post 10. Dunkirk 11. I, Tonya 12. Detroit 13. Battle of the Sexes 14. Coco 15. Wonder Wheel

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Call Me By Your Name
2. Mudbound
3. The Disaster Artist
4. Molly’s Game
5. Last Flag Flying

Next in line: 6. The Death of Stalin 7. Stronger 8. Wonderstruck 9. Logan 10. Wonder 11. Blade Runner 2049 12. Victoria and Abdul 13. The Beguiled 14. Thank You For Your Service 15. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Coco
2. Loving Vincent
3. The LEGO Batman Movie
4. The Breadwinner
5. Cars 3

Next in line: 6. The LEGO Ninjago Movie 7. The Girl Without Hands 8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie 9. Despicable Me 3 10. The Star 11. The Boss Baby 12. Ferdinand 13. In This Corner of the World 14. A Silent Voice 15. My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Dunkirk
4. The Shape of Water
5. Beauty and the Beast

Next in line: 6. Phantom Thread 7. Darkest Hour 8. Battle of the Sexes 9. The Disaster Artist 10. The Post 11. The Greatest Showman 12. Wonder Wheel 13. The Beguiled 14. Downsizing 15. Thor: Ragnarok

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Dunkirk
3. The Shape of Water
4. Darkest Hour
5. Mudbound

Next in line: 6. The Post 7. Call Me By Your Name 8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 9. Wonderstruck 10. Lady Bird 11. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 12. Wonder Wheel 13. The Beguiled 14. mother! 15. Downsizing

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Phantom Thread
2. The Beguiled
3. Beauty and the Beast
4. Victoria and Abdul
5. The Post

Next in line: 6. The Shape of Water 7. Darkest Hour 8. Wonder Wheel 8. The Greatest Showman 10. Dunkirk 11. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 12. Mudbound 13. Battle of the Sexes 14. Wonder Woman 15. Blade Runner 2049

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. The Post
4. I, Tonya
5. Lady Bird

Next in line: 6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 7. The Shape of Water 8. Blade Runner 2049 9. Darkest Hour 10. mother! 11. Phantom Thread 12. Last Flag Flying 13. Baby Driver 14. The Disaster Artist 15. Molly’s Game

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Darkest Hour
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. I, Tonya

Next in line: 4. Logan 5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 6. The Shape of Water 7. Wonder Woman 8. Blade Runner 2049 9. Thor: Ragnorak 10. Justice League 11. The Greatest Showman 12. Phantom Thread 13. Downsizing 14. Victoria and Abdul 15. All the Money in the World

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Baby Driver
5. Detroit

Next in line: 6. The Greatest Showman 7. Spider-Man: Homecoming 8. Wonder Woman 9. War for the Planet of the Apes 10. Kong: Skull Island 11. Thor: Ragnorak 12. Transformers: The Last Knight 13. mother! 14. Justice League 15. Alien: Covenant

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Wonder Woman
5. Detroit

Next in line: 6. Baby Driver 7. The Greatest Showman 8. The Shape of Water 9. War for the Planet of the Apes 10. Spider-Man: Homecoming 11. Thor: Ragnorak 12. Transformers: The Last Knight 13. mother! 14. Kong: Skull Island 15. Alien: Covenant

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Dunkirk
4. War for the Planet of the Apes
5. Thor: Ragnorak

Next in line: 6. Wonder Woman 7. The Shape of Water 8. Spider-Man: Homecoming 9. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets 10. Logan 11. Okja 12. Alien: Covenant 13. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 14. Life 15. Justice League

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Dunkirk
2. Phantom Thread
3. The Shape of Water
4. Darkest Hour
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

Next in line: 6. The Post 7. Victoria and Abdul 8. Three Billboards of Ebbing, Missouri 9. Blade Runner 2049 10. Battle of the Sexes 11. Coco 12. The Greatest Showman 13. Baby Driver 14. Wind River 15. Wonderstruck

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Coco
2. The Greatest Showman
3. Beauty and the Beast
4. Detroit
5. Call Me By Your Name

Next in line: 6. The Hero 7. Fifty Shades Darker 8. Thank You For Your Service 9. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power 10. Marshall 11. Chasing Coral 12. Only The Brave 13. Battle of the Sexes 14. The LEGO Batman Movie 15. A Ghost Story

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Jane
2. Cries from Syria
3. Chasing Coral
4. City of Ghosts
5. Icarus

6. Risk 7. Long Strange Trip 8. The Final Year 9. Kedi 10. Last Men in Aleppo 11. Human Flow 12. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power 13. Nobody Speak: Trials of the Free Press 14. Strong Island 15. Jim & Andy: The Great Beyond – With a Very Special, Contractually Obligated Mention of Tony Clifton

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. BPM: Beats Per Minute
2. First They Killed My Father
3. In the Fade
4. Foxtrot
5. A Fantastic Woman

6. The Square 7. Happy End 8. The Divine Order 9. Loveless 10. Tom of Finland 11. On Body and Soul 12. Thelma 13. Men Don’t Cry 14. Woodpeckers 15. The Insult

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Lou
2. Dear Basketball
3. Fox and the Whale
4. Revolting Rhymes
5. Negative Space

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. Ram Dass, Going Home
2. Heroin(e)
3. Alone
4. 116 Cameras
5. Edith+Eddie

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???


Stay tuned for another update to these predictions in the next week or so!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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