"Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse" is the best animated film of the year                Snubs and surprises mark the Screen Actors Guild nominations as "A Star Is Born" leads the way                2018 Critics Choice nominations led by Yorgos Lanthimos' "The Favourite"                Nicole Kidman: Boy Erased and Destroyer - Hollywood Film Tribute                “Beautiful Boy” – Timothée Chalamet: Hollywood Film Tribute                “First Man” by Damien Chazelle: Ryan Gosling, Claire Foy - Hollywood Film Tribute                Natalie Portman shines in the otherwise confounding "Vox Lux"                Golden Globe nominations announced! "Vice" leads the charge!                “Green Book” - Viggo Mortensen, Mahershala Ali: Hollywood Film Tribute                "Mary Queen of Scots" can't live up to its royal lineage                "Ben Is Back" sees father and filmmaker Peter Hedges direct his son Lucas Hedges to a brilliant performance                Hollywood Film Tribute: GLENN CLOSE for her excellent performances                A final crack at Golden Globe nominations before Thursday's announcement                “Mary Poppins Returns” and “Once Upon a Deadpool”: Films to see in December                Review Round-Up: "Elliot: The Littlest Reindeer" and "The Mercy"        

Updated Academy Award predictions to close out the year

Before the we turn the page from 2017 to 2018, of course there needs to be a new set of Oscar predictions, right? These are the final days of the year (look for a best of 2017 post tomorrow), with every film in contention having been screened for critics and voting bodies, if not in wide release for audiences. That lets the box office begin to become a small factor. Not a huge one, mind you, as otherwise Beauty and the Beast or Star Wars: The Last Jedi would be Best Picture frontrunners. However, it lets you see how Lady Bird has connected with audiences, for example. It all just goes into the mix when doing analysis.

As you’ll see below, not much has changed, as this is the calm period in the season. Precursors will start up again in earnest soon, but until then, we’re in a bit of a holding pattern. I remain of the mindset that Lady Bird is the current Best Picture frontrunner, while aside from Best Actor and Best Supporting Actor, most races are wide open. Even then, while Gary Oldman seems still likely in Actor, Willem Dafoe is hardly unbeatable in Supporting Actor. Best Director could go any number of ways, while Actress and Supporting Actress are super competitive. You’ll see what I mean next, but just keep that all in mind, especially considering the lack of movement in many categories…

Here now are new predictions to wrap up 2017:

BEST PICTURE

1. Lady Bird
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Get Out
4. The Shape of Water
5. Dunkirk
6. The Post
7. The Florida Project
8. Call Me By Your Name
9. The Big Sick
10. Mudbound

Next in line: 11. I, Tonya 12. Darkest Hour 13. Phantom Thread 14. All the Money in the World 15. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 16. The Disaster Artist 17. Blade Runner 2049 18. Molly’s Game 19. Battle of the Sexes 20. Detroit 21. Hostiles 22. The Greatest Showman 23. Last Flag Flying 24. Logan 25. Downsizing 26. mother! 27. Stronger 28. Wonderstruck 29. Coco 30. Wonder Woman

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
2. Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
3. Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
4. Steven Spielberg – The Post
5. Jordan Peele – Get Out

Next in line: 6. Luca Guadagnino – Call Me By Your Name 7. Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 8. Sean Baker – The Florida Project 9. Dee Rees – Mudbound 10. Craig Gillespie – I, Tonya 11. Joe Wright – Darkest Hour 12. Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread 13. Denis Villeneuve – Blade Runner 2049 14. Ridley Scott – All the Money in the World 15. Rian Johnson – Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BEST ACTOR

1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
2. Timothée Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name
3. Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
4. James Franco – The Disaster Artist
5. Tom Hanks – The Post

Next in line: 6. Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel Esq 7. Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out 8. Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger 9. Christian Bale – Hostiles 10. Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman (or Logan) 11. Steve Carell – Last Flag Flying 12. Andrew Garfield – Breathe 10. 13. Robert Pattinson – Good Time 14. Mark Hamill – Star Wars: The Last Jedi 15. Sam Elliott – The Hero

BEST ACTRESS

1. Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
2. Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
3. Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
4. Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
5. Meryl Streep – The Post

Next in line: 6. Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul 7. Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game 8. Michelle Williams – All the Money in the World 9. Vicky Krieps – Phantom Thread 10. Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes 11. Annette Bening – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool 12. Kate Winslet – Wonder Wheel 13. Diane Kruger – In the Fade 14. Jennifer Lawrence – mother! 15. Gal Gadot – Wonder Woman

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
2. Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
4. Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name
5. Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World

Next in line: 6. Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 7. Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes 8. Mark Rylance – Dunkirk 9. Michael Stulhbarg – Call Me By Your Name 10. Michael Shannon – The Shape of Water 11. Jason Mitchell – Mudbound 12. Ben Mendelsohn – Darkest Hour 13. Garret Hedlund – Mudbound 14. Will Poulter – Detroit 15. Patrick Stewart – Logan

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
2. Allison Janney – I, Tonya
3. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
4. Holly Hunter – The Big Sick
5. Hong Chau – Downsizing

Next in line: 6. Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water 7. Lois Smith – Marjorie Prime 8. Melissa Leo – Novitiate 9. Tiffany Haddish – Girls Trip 10. Tatiana Maslany – Stronger 11. Leslie Manville – Phantom Thread 12. Kristen Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour 13. Rosamund Pike – Hostiles 14. Claire Foy – Breathe 15. Carrie Fisher – Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Lady Bird
2. Get Out
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
4. Phantom Thread
5. The Big Sick

Next in line: 6. The Shape of Water 7. The Post 8. Dunkirk 9. The Florida Project 10. I, Tonya 11. Darkest Hour 12. Detroit 13. Battle of the Sexes 14. Coco 15. Wind River

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Call Me By Your Name
2. Mudbound
3. Molly’s Game
4. The Disaster Artist
5. Wonder

Next in line: 6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 7. Victoria and Abdul 8. All the Money in the World 9. Logan 10. Last Flag Flying 11. Wonderstruck 12. Stronger 13. The Beguiled 14. Hostiles 15. Blade Runner 2049

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Coco
2. Loving Vincent
3. The Breadwinner
4. Ferdinand
5. The LEGO Batman Movie

Next in line: 6. The Boss Baby 7. The Girl Without Hands 8. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie 9. Cars 3 10. The Star 11. The LEGO Ninjago Movie 12. Despicable Me 3 13. In This Corner of the World 14. A Silent Voice 15. My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. The Shape of Water
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Dunkirk
5. Beauty and the Beast

Next in line: 6. Phantom Thread 7. Darkest Hour 8. The Post 9. The Disaster Artist 10. Battle of the Sexes 11. The Greatest Showman 12. Wonder Wheel 13. The Beguiled 14. Downsizing 15. Thor: Ragnarok

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Dunkirk
3. The Shape of Water
4. Mudbound
5. Hostiles

Next in line: 6. The Post 7. Call Me By Your Name 8. Darkest Hour 9. Wonderstruck 10. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 11. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 12. Lady Bird 13. The Beguiled 14. Wonder Wheel 15. mother!

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Phantom Thread
2. The Beguiled
3. Beauty and the Beast
4. Victoria and Abdul
5. The Post

Next in line: 6. The Shape of Water 7. Darkest Hour 8. Wonder Wheel 8. The Greatest Showman 10. Dunkirk 11. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 12. Mudbound 13. Battle of the Sexes 14. Wonder Woman 15. Blade Runner 2049

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. Lady Bird
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. I, Tonya
5. The Shape of Water

Next in line: 6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 7. The Post 8. Blade Runner 2049 9. Darkest Hour 10. mother! 11. Phantom Thread 12. Last Flag Flying 13. Baby Driver 14. The Disaster Artist 15. Molly’s Game

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Darkest Hour
2. I, Tonya
3. Bright

Next in line: 4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 5. Wonder 6. Victoria and Abdul 7. Ghost in the Shell 8. N/A 9. N/A 10. N/A 11. N/A 12. N/A 13. N/A 14. N/A 15. N/A

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Baby Driver
5. Detroit

Next in line: 6. The Greatest Showman 7. Spider-Man: Homecoming 8. Wonder Woman 9. War for the Planet of the Apes 10. Kong: Skull Island 11. Thor: Ragnorak 12. Transformers: The Last Knight 13. mother! 14. Justice League 15. Alien: Covenant

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. Wonder Woman
5. Detroit

Next in line: 6. Baby Driver 7. The Greatest Showman 8. The Shape of Water 9. War for the Planet of the Apes 10. Spider-Man: Homecoming 11. Thor: Ragnorak 12. Transformers: The Last Knight 13. mother! 14. Kong: Skull Island 15. Alien: Covenant

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Dunkirk
4. War for the Planet of the Apes
5. The Shape of Water

Next in line: 6. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets 7. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 8. Kong: Skull Island 9. Okja 10. Alien: Covenant 11. N/A 12. N/A 13. N/A 14. N/A 15. N/A

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Phantom Thread
2. Dunkirk
3. The Shape of Water
4. Darkest Hour
5. The Post

Next in line: 6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 7. Victoria and Abdul 8. Three Billboards of Ebbing, Missouri 9. Blade Runner 2049 10. Battle of the Sexes 11. Coco 12. Wonderstruck 13. All the Money in the World 14. Wind River 15. Logan

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Coco (Remember Me)
2. The Greatest Showman (This Is Me)
3. Beauty and the Beast (Evermore)
4. Detroit (It Ain’t Fair)
5. Call Me By Your Name (Mystery of Love)

Next in line: 6. The Hero (The Hero) 7. Ferdinand (Home) 8. Fifty Shades Darker (I Don’t Wanna Live Forever) 9. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (Truth to Power) 10. Marshall (Stand Up For Something) 11. Chasing Coral (Tell Me How Long) 12. Only The Brave (Hold The Light) 13. Battle of the Sexes (If I Dare) 14. The LEGO Batman Movie (Friends Are Family) 15. Pitch Perfect 3 (How A Heart Unbreaks)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Jane
2. City of Ghosts
3. Icarus
4. Chasing Coral
5. Ex Libris – The New York Public LibraryStrong Island

6. Faces Places 7. Strong Island 8. Human Flow 9. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail 10. Last Men in Aleppo 11. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power 12. Long Strange Trip 13. LA 92 14. Unrest 15. One of Us

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. In the Fade
2. Foxtrot
3. A Fantastic Woman
4. The Square
5. Loveless

6. On Body and Soul 7. The Insult 8. Félicité 9. The Wound 10. N/A 11. N/A 12. N/A 13. N/A 14. N/A 15. N/A

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Lou
2. Dear Basketball
3. Fox and the Whale
4. Revolting Rhymes
5. Negative Space

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. Ram Dass, Going Home
2. Heroin(e)
3. Alone
4. 116 Cameras
5. Edith+Eddie

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Lost Face
2. Witnesses
3. DeKalb Elementary
4. Facing Mecca
5. My Nephew Emmett

Stay tuned for another update next week!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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