Updated Academy Award predictions as voting is going on


In just a few days, ballots for the 90th Academy Award will be due, which means that now is literally the most crucial point in the season. If a screener is going to be watched, it’s going to be watched today. The voters I’m in contact with still have things to see, so you best believe that last minute viewings are occurring. For certain titles that might end up missing when nominations are announced, it could be in part due to not enough Academy members giving it a shot. Time will tell there, but for now, we’re trying to figure out what Oscar is about to do.

Below you can see an up to date look at the race. Focusing in on Best Picture for this preview, there are essentially 11 films in the running for however many slots the Academy ends up having this year. How that goes will impact everything else down the line. In terms of possible winners, it’s a four horse race between Get Out, Lady Bird, The Shape of Water, and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri. There’s potentially an upset chance with The Post, but it has suffered enough during the precursors that wins may be hard to come by. Ballots are due on Friday, so it’s very much crunch time…

Here now are my updated Oscar predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. Lady Bird
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Get Out
4. The Shape of Water
5. The Post
6. Dunkirk
7. The Big Sick
8. I, Tonya
9. Call Me By Your Name
10. The Florida Project

Next in line: 11. Mudbound 12. Molly’s Game 13. Phantom Thread 14. Baby Driver 15. Darkest Hour 16. Blade Runner 2049 17. All the Money in the World 18. The Disaster Artist 19. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 20. Detroit 21. Battle of the Sexes 22. Logan 23. Last Flag Flying 24. Hostiles 25. Downsizing 26. mother! 27. Stronger 28. Wonderstruck 29. Coco 30. Wonder Woman

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
2. Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
3. Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
4. Martin McDonagh – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Jordan Peele – Get Out

Next in line: 6. Steven Spielberg – The Post 7. Luca Guadagnino – Call Me By Your Name 8. Sean Baker – The Florida Project 9. Dee Rees – Mudbound 10. Craig Gillespie – I, Tonya 11. Joe Wright – Darkest Hour 12. Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread 13. Denis Villeneuve – Blade Runner 2049 14. Ridley Scott – All the Money in the World 15. Rian Johnson – Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BEST ACTOR

1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
2. Timothée Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name
3. Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
4. James Franco – The Disaster Artist
5. Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out

Next in line: 6. Tom Hanks – The Post 7. Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel Esq 8. Jake Gyllenhaal – Stronger 9. Christian Bale – Hostiles 10. Hugh Jackman – The Greatest Showman (or Logan) 11. Steve Carell – Last Flag Flying 12. Andrew Garfield – Breathe 10. 13. Robert Pattinson – Good Time 14. Mark Hamill – Star Wars: The Last Jedi 15. Sam Elliott – The Hero

BEST ACTRESS

1. Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
2. Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
4. Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
5. Jessica Chastain – Molly’s Game

Next in line: 6. Meryl Streep – The Post 7. Judi Dench – Victoria and Abdul 8. Michelle Williams – All the Money in the World 9. Vicky Krieps – Phantom Thread 10. Emma Stone – Battle of the Sexes 11. Annette Bening – Film Stars Don’t Die in Liverpool 12. Kate Winslet – Wonder Wheel 13. Diane Kruger – In the Fade 14. Jennifer Lawrence – mother! 15. Gal Gadot – Wonder Woman

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
3. Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
4. Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World
5. Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Next in line: 6. Armie Hammer – Call Me By Your Name 7. Steve Carell – Battle of the Sexes 8. Mark Rylance – Dunkirk 9. Michael Stulhbarg – Call Me By Your Name 10. Michael Shannon – The Shape of Water 11. Jason Mitchell – Mudbound 12. Ben Mendelsohn – Darkest Hour 13. Garret Hedlund – Mudbound 14. Will Poulter – Detroit 15. Patrick Stewart – Logan

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Allison Janney – I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
3. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
4. Holly Hunter – The Big Sick
5. Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water

Next in line: 6. Hong Chau – Downsizing 7. Leslie Manville – Phantom Thread 8. Melissa Leo – Novitiate 9. Tiffany Haddish – Girls Trip 10. Tatiana Maslany – Stronger 11. Kristen Scott Thomas – Darkest Hour 12. Lois Smith – Marjorie Prime 13. Rosamund Pike – Hostiles 14. Claire Foy – Breathe 15. Carrie Fisher – Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Lady Bird
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Get Out
4. The Big Sick
5. I, Tonya

Next in line: 6. The Shape of Water 7. Phantom Thread 8. The Post 9. Dunkirk 10. The Florida Project 11. Darkest Hour 12. Baby Driver 13. Battle of the Sexes 14. Detroit 15. Coco

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Call Me By Your Name
2. Mudbound
3. Molly’s Game
4. The Disaster Artist
5. Logan

Next in line: 6. Wonder 7. Victoria and Abdul 8. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 9. All the Money in the World 10. Last Flag Flying 11. Wonderstruck 12. Stronger 13. The Beguiled 14. Hostiles 15. Blade Runner 2049

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Coco
2. Loving Vincent
3. The Breadwinner
4. Ferdinand
5. The LEGO Batman Movie

Next in line: 6. The Boss Baby 7. The Girl Without Hands 8. The Star 9. Captain Underpants: The First Epic Movie 10. Cars 3 11. The LEGO Ninjago Movie 12. Despicable Me 3 13. In This Corner of the World 14. A Silent Voice 15. My Entire High School Sinking Into the Sea

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. The Shape of Water
3. Dunkirk
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. Beauty and the Beast

Next in line: 6. Phantom Thread 7. Darkest Hour 8. The Post 9. Logan 10. Get Out 11. Wonder Woman 12. Downsizing 13. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 14. Lady Bird 15. Murder on the Orient Express

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Dunkirk
3. The Shape of Water
4. Mudbound
5. Darkest Hour

Next in line: 6. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 7. The Post 8. Call Me By Your Name 9. Hostiles 10. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 11. Wonderstruck 12. Lady Bird 13. The Florida Project 14. Wonder Wheel 15. mother!

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Phantom Thread
2. Beauty and the Beast
3. The Shape of Water
4. Victoria and Abdul
5. Murder on the Orient Express

Next in line: 6. The Post 7. Dunkirk 8. I, Tonya 8. The Greatest Showman 10. Darkest Hour 11. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 12. Wonder Woman 13. Thor: Ragnarok 14. The Beguiled 15. Blade Runner 2049

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Lady Bird
4. I, Tonya
5. Baby Driver

Next in line: 6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 7. Get Out 8. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri 9. The Post 10. Blade Runner 2049 11. Molly’s Game 12. Darkest Hour 13. Phantom Thread 14. The Disaster Artist 15. mother!

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Darkest Hour
2. I, Tonya
3. Bright

Next in line: 4. Wonder 5. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2 6. Victoria and Abdul 7. Ghost in the Shell 8. N/A 9. N/A 10. N/A 11. N/A 12. N/A 13. N/A 14. N/A 15. N/A

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. The Shape of Water
5. Baby Driver

Next in line: 6. Wonder Woman 7. Spider-Man: Homecoming 8. Detroit 9. War for the Planet of the Apes 10. The Greatest Showman 11. Thor: Ragnorak 12. Transformers: The Last Knight 13. mother! 14. Kong: Skull Island 15. Alien: Covenant

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Blade Runner 2049
4. The Shape of Water
5. Wonder Woman

Next in line: 6. Baby Driver 7. The Greatest Showman 8. Detroit 9. War for the Planet of the Apes 10. Spider-Man: Homecoming 11. Thor: Ragnorak 12. Transformers: The Last Knight 13. mother! 14. Kong: Skull Island 15. Alien: Covenant

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. Dunkirk
4. War for the Planet of the Apes
5. The Shape of Water

Next in line: 6. Okja 7. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 8. Valerian and the City of a Thousand Planets 9. Kong: Skull Island 10. Alien: Covenant 11. N/A 12. N/A 13. N/A 14. N/A 15. N/A

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. The Shape of Water
2. Dunkirk
3. Phantom Thread
4. Three Billboards of Ebbing, Missouri
5. The Post

Next in line: 6. Star Wars: The Last Jedi 7. Darkest Hour 8. Victoria and Abdul 9. Blade Runner 2049 10. Battle of the Sexes 11. Coco 12. Wonderstruck 13. All the Money in the World 14. Wind River 15. Logan

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Coco (Remember Me)
2. The Greatest Showman (This Is Me)
3. Call Me By Your Name (Mystery of Love)
4. Beauty and the Beast (Evermore)
5. Detroit (It Ain’t Fair)

Next in line: 6. Call Me By Your Name (Visions of Gideon) 7. The Hero (The Hero) 8. Ferdinand (Home) 9. Fifty Shades Darker (I Don’t Wanna Live Forever) 10. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power (Truth to Power) 11. Marshall (Stand Up For Something) 12. Chasing Coral (Tell Me How Long) 12. The Star (The Star) 13. Battle of the Sexes (If I Dare) 14. The LEGO Batman Movie (Friends Are Family) 15. Call Me By Your Name (Visions of Gideon)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Jane
2. Faces Places
3. City of Ghosts
4. Icarus
5. Ex Libris – The New York Public Library

6. Chasing Coral 7. Strong Island 8. Human Flow 9. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail 10. Last Men in Aleppo 11. An Inconvenient Sequel: Truth to Power 12. Long Strange Trip 13. LA 92 14. Unrest 15. One of Us

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. In the Fade
2. Foxtrot
3. A Fantastic Woman
4. The Square
5. Loveless

6. On Body and Soul 7. The Insult 8. Félicité 9. The Wound 10. N/A 11. N/A 12. N/A 13. N/A 14. N/A 15. N/A

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Lou
2. Dear Basketball
3. Fox and the Whale
4. Revolting Rhymes
5. Negative Space

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. Ram Dass, Going Home
2. Heroin(e)
3. Alone
4. 116 Cameras
5. Edith+Eddie

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Lost Face
2. Witnesses
3. DeKalb Elementary
4. Facing Mecca
5. My Nephew Emmett


Stay tuned for another update next week!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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