Academy Award predictions following the nominations

Now that the Academy has had their say, it’s time to figure out just who and what might be winning Academy Awards in March. The next month and change will be relatively quiet, with only a few precursors (mainly the Directors Guild) chiming in with their clues. As such, a lot could ride on just how voters feel in this down time. Will they reconsider any of their choices? That remains to be seen, though most of the power players stayed the same. If anything, it was lower tier nominees moving towards the middle, which shouldn’t actually impact much. Still, there’s plenty to consider.

Below are an initial set of predictions for the ceremony. A lot of things seem to be more or less what we thought going into the nominations. One change is that The Shape of Water has moved into the lead for Best Picture. The lack of a Best Director nomination probably keeps Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri from winning Best Picture, which is why I’ve dropped it down so low. Get Out and Lady Bird both have no below the line nominations, which hurts, so while they still have a chance, it doesn’t look quite as good as before. Frankly, while it almost certainly won’t win, Dunkirk seems like it could pose the real challenge. If so, look for Guillermo del Toro’s fantasy romance to walk away with a number of Academy Awards, including the big one.


Here’s my first crack at post nomination predictions for the Oscars:

BEST PICTURE

1. The Shape of Water
2. Lady Bird
3. Get Out
4. Dunkirk
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6. Phantom Thread
7. The Post
8. Call Me By Your Name
9. Darkest Hour

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
2. Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
3. Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
4. Jordan Peele – Get Out
5. Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread

BEST ACTOR

1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
2. Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
3. Timothee Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name
4. Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
5. Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel Esq.

BEST ACTRESS

1. Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
3. Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
4. Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
5. Meryl Streep – The Post

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
3. Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
4. Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World
5. Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Allison Janney – I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
3. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
4. Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water
5. Leslie Manville – Phantom Thread

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Lady Bird
2. Get Out
3. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
4. The Shape of Water
5. The Big Sick

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Call Me By Your Name
2. Mudbound
3. The Disaster Artist
4. Molly’s Game
5. Logan

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Coco
2. Loving Vincent
3. The Breadwinner
4. Ferdinand
5. The Boss Baby

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. The Shape of Water
3. Dunkirk
4. Darkest Hour
5. Beauty and the Beast

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Dunkirk
3. The Shape of Water
4. Darkest Hour
5. Mudbound

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Phantom Thread
2. The Shape of Water
3. Beauty and the Beast
4. Darkest Hour
5. Victoria and Abdul

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Baby Driver
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. I, Tonya

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Darkest Hour
2. Victoria and Abdul
3. Wonder

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. The Shape of Water
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. Baby Driver

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. The Shape of Water
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. Baby Driver

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
3. War for the Planet of the Apes
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
5. Kong: Skull Island

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. The Shape of Water
2. Phantom Thread
3. Dunkirk
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Coco – “Remember Me”
2. The Greatest Showman – “This Is Me”
3. Call Me By Your Name – “Mystery of Love”
4. Mudbound – “Mighty River”
5. Marshall – “Stand Up For Something”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Faces Places
2. Icarus
3. Last Men in Aleppo
4. Strong Island
5. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. A Fantastic Woman
2. The Square
3. Loveless
4. On Body and Soul
5. The Insult

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Lou
2. Dear Basketball
3. Garden Party
4. Negative Space
5. Revolting Rhymes

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. Edith+Eddie
2. Heroin(e)
3. Traffic Stop
4. Knife Skills
5. Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. My Nephew Emmett
2. DeKalb Elementary
3. Watu Wote/All of UsThe Eleven O’Clock
4. The Silent Child
5. The Eleven O’Clock


Stay tuned for an update next month!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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