Updated Academy Award Predictions for early February

In just under a month, the Oscars will be handed out. Voting has not yet opened up for Academy members, so we remain in a form of awards season stasis. The calm before the final storm, if you will. There’s not a whole lot of news to sift through here, beyond the Directors Guild result. The Writers Guild will be our next clue, but until then, we’re in neutral. So, despite me saying one thing, I’m doing another. I may tell you to stick for now with the predictions you already have, at least until voting begins, but for the sake of readership, I’ve tinkered a bit with my predictions here. There’s not a whole lot of change, but there’s some mild experimentation going on, so there’s that. After all, this is kind of what I specialize in.

There’s not a whole lot to be figured out, but a few categories do still seem to be up for grabs. By and large, it looks like it could be a good night for The Shape of Water, with Guillermo del Toro a lock to win Best Director and Best Picture seemingly gravitating towards the film itself. Other movies still in play obviously include Get Out and Lady Bird as spoilers, while depending on who you ask, Dunkirk and especially Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri are right there as well. The acting categories seem pretty clearly to favor the current frontrunners too, so really the only major category where there could be some real suspense right now is Best Original Screenplay. There, you could make the case for any of the five. Stay tuned…


Here now is an updated look at how I think the Academy Awards will go down:

BEST PICTURE

1. The Shape of Water
2. Lady Bird
3. Dunkirk
4. Get Out
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
6. Phantom Thread
7. The Post
8. Call Me By Your Name
9. Darkest Hour

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
2. Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
3. Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
4. Jordan Peele – Get Out
5. Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread

BEST ACTOR

1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
2. Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
3. Timothee Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name
4. Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
5. Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel Esq.

BEST ACTRESS

1. Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
3. Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
4. Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
5. Meryl Streep – The Post

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
3. Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
4. Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Allison Janney – I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
3. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
4. Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water
5. Leslie Manville – Phantom Thread

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Lady Bird
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Get Out
4. The Shape of Water
5. The Big Sick

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Call Me By Your Name
2. Mudbound
3. The Disaster Artist
4. Molly’s Game
5. Logan

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Coco
2. Loving Vincent
3. The Breadwinner
4. Ferdinand
5. The Boss Baby

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. The Shape of Water
3. Dunkirk
4. Darkest Hour
5. Beauty and the Beast

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. The Shape of Water
3. Dunkirk
4. Darkest Hour
5. Mudbound

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Phantom Thread
2. The Shape of Water
3. Beauty and the Beast
4. Darkest Hour
5. Victoria and Abdul

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Baby Driver
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. I, Tonya

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Darkest Hour
2. Victoria and Abdul
3. Wonder

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. The Shape of Water
4. Baby Driver
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. The Shape of Water
4. Baby Driver
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. War for the Planet of the Apes
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
5. Kong: Skull Island

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. The Shape of Water
2. Phantom Thread
3. Dunkirk
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Coco – “Remember Me”
2. The Greatest Showman – “This Is Me”
3. Call Me By Your Name – “Mystery of Love”
4. Mudbound – “Mighty River”
5. Marshall – “Stand Up For Something”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Icarus
2. Faces Places
3. Strong Island
4. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
5. Last Men in Aleppo

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. A Fantastic Woman
2. The Square
3. On Body and Soul
4. Loveless
5. The Insult

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Lou
2. Dear Basketball
3. Garden Party
4. Negative Space
5. Revolting Rhymes

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. Edith+Eddie
2. Heroin(e)
3. Traffic Stop
4. Knife Skills
5. Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. My Nephew Emmett
2. DeKalb Elementary
3. Watu Wote/All of UsThe Eleven O’Clock
4. The Silent Child
5. The Eleven O’Clock


Stay tuned for another update to these predictions very soon!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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