Updated Academy Award Predictions as final voting opens


As you’re reading this, members of the Academy have been officially voting for the Oscars. Final choices are being made, with contenders having done everything possible to attract votes their way. Now, they’ll just have to wait. Voters have a week to fill out their ballots, with the ceremony a few days after. We’re under two weeks now from the actual Academy Awards ceremony, if you can believe it. Final predictions will be next week, so consider this potentially the penultimate picks below. I may update one more time before then if necessary…we shall see. Instead, it may be a look at a voter’s ballot or something like that. Sit tight.

Right now, it feels like a three horse race for Best Picture, with the winner also probably taking Best Original Screenplay as well. All the other major categories are wrapped up, and in Picture, there’s only the smallest possibilities that either Dunkirk or Lady Bird could pull the upset. Otherwise, it’s between Get Out, The Shape of Water, and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri for top honors. If Original Screenplay pushes one to the top, it’ll either be Get Out or Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, hence their leaping over The Shape of Water lately. Below the line, it’ll be interesting to see how voters choose between Blade Runner 2049, Dunkirk, and The Shape of Water in various categories, or if we’re going to see an upset in favor of something like Baby Driver. It could happen. For now, new predictions below…


Here’s my up to date look at how the Oscars could go down:

BEST PICTURE

1. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Get Out
3. The Shape of Water
4. Dunkirk
5. Lady Bird
6. Phantom Thread
7. The Post
8. Call Me By Your Name
9. Darkest Hour

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Guillermo del Toro – The Shape of Water
2. Christopher Nolan – Dunkirk
3. Greta Gerwig – Lady Bird
4. Jordan Peele – Get Out
5. Paul Thomas Anderson – Phantom Thread

BEST ACTOR

1. Gary Oldman – Darkest Hour
2. Daniel Day-Lewis – Phantom Thread
3. Timothee Chalamet – Call Me By Your Name
4. Daniel Kaluuya – Get Out
5. Denzel Washington – Roman J. Israel Esq.

BEST ACTRESS

1. Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Saoirse Ronan – Lady Bird
3. Sally Hawkins – The Shape of Water
4. Margot Robbie – I, Tonya
5. Meryl Streep – The Post

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Sam Rockwell – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2. Willem Dafoe – The Florida Project
3. Richard Jenkins – The Shape of Water
4. Woody Harrelson – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. Christopher Plummer – All the Money in the World

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Allison Janney – I, Tonya
2. Laurie Metcalf – Lady Bird
3. Mary J. Blige – Mudbound
4. Octavia Spencer – The Shape of Water
5. Leslie Manville – Phantom Thread

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Get Out
2. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
3. Lady Bird
4. The Shape of Water
5. The Big Sick

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Call Me By Your Name
2. Mudbound
3. The Disaster Artist
4. Molly’s Game
5. Logan

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Coco
2. Loving Vincent
3. The Breadwinner
4. Ferdinand
5. The Boss Baby

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. The Shape of Water
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. Dunkirk
4. Darkest Hour
5. Beauty and the Beast

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. The Shape of Water
3. Dunkirk
4. Darkest Hour
5. Mudbound

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Phantom Thread
2. The Shape of Water
3. Beauty and the Beast
4. Darkest Hour
5. Victoria and Abdul

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. The Shape of Water
3. Baby Driver
4. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
5. I, Tonya

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Darkest Hour
2. Victoria and Abdul
3. Wonder

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. The Shape of Water
4. Baby Driver
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Dunkirk
2. Blade Runner 2049
3. The Shape of Water
4. Baby Driver
5. Star Wars: The Last Jedi

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Blade Runner 2049
2. War for the Planet of the Apes
3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
4. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2
5. Kong: Skull Island

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. The Shape of Water
2. Phantom Thread
3. Dunkirk
4. Star Wars: The Last Jedi
5. Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Coco – “Remember Me”
2. The Greatest Showman – “This Is Me”
3. Call Me By Your Name – “Mystery of Love”
4. Mudbound – “Mighty River”
5. Marshall – “Stand Up For Something”

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Icarus
2. Faces Places
3. Strong Island
4. Abacus: Small Enough to Jail
5. Last Men in Aleppo

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. A Fantastic Woman
2. The Square
3. Loveless
4. On Body and Soul
5. The Insult

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Lou
2. Dear Basketball
3. Garden Party
4. Negative Space
5. Revolting Rhymes

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. Edith+Eddie
2. Traffic Stop
3. Heroin(e)
4. Knife Skills
5. Heaven is a Traffic Jam on the 405

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. My Nephew Emmett
2. DeKalb Elementary
3. Watu Wote/All of UsThe Eleven O’Clock
4. The Silent Child
5. The Eleven O’Clock


Stay tuned for an update next week!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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