“BlacKkKlansman”: Oscar predictions for May


Academy Award predictions at this early juncture are still very much a complete guessing game. Unless something blows everyone away at the Sundance Film Festival or the Cannes Film Festival, you’re simply speculating. Still, speculation is the name of the game each year, so that’s never stopped anyone before. With May almost wrapped up, it’s a perfect time to check in about what Oscar voters could be thinking when things get cold again in the fall and winter. In a few months, we’ll have a better sense of things, but for now, it’s as much as anything a fun exercise in obvious futility.

There are a few tinkers to be found here with this new slate of Oscar predictions. Mostly, it’s an acknowledgment that Spike Lee’s recent Cannes hit BlackKklansman may well be an awards player. That’s the main thing to take from this, though below the line it does seem like a pair of documentaries are early possible frontrunners in Best Documentary Feature. Those would be RBG and Won’t You Be My Neighbor, the latter of which is also one of the best films of the year so far, for what that’s worth. Plus, in Best Original Song, the upcoming indie Hearts Beat Loud offers up some catchy tunes that voters could go for. Those are guesses, but they’re somewhat educated guesses, at least.

Here now are some updated predictions for May:

BEST PICTURE

1. First Man
2. Backseat
3. The Irishman
4. BlackKklansman
5. The Front Runner
6. On the Basis of Sex
7. Black Panther
8. Boy Erased
9. If Beale Street Could Talk
10. A Star is Born

Next in line: 11. The Women of Marwen 12. Where’d You Go, Bernadette? 13. Widows 14. Ad Astra 15. Mary Queen of Scots 16. White Boy Rick 17. Mid 90’s 18. The Favourite 19. Bohemian Rhapsody 20. Can You Ever Forgive Me?

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Martin Scorsese – The Irishman
2. Adam McKay – Backseat
3. Damien Chazelle – First Man
4. Spike Lee – BlackKklansman
5. Jason Reitman – The Front Runner

Next in line: 6. Ryan Coogler – Black Panther 7. Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk 8. Joel Edgerton – Boy Erased 9. Mimi Leder – On the Basis of Sex 10. Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born

BEST ACTOR

1. Hugh Jackman – The Front Runner
2. Ryan Gosling – First Man
3. Christian Bale – Backseat
4. Lucas Hedges – Boy Erased
5. Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody

Next in line: 6. Robert De Niro – The Irishman 7. Ben Foster – Leave No Trace 8. Steve Carell – The Women of Marwen (or Beautiful Boy) 9. Robert Redford – Old Man and the Gun 10. Matthew McConaughey – White Boy Rick

BEST ACTRESS

1. Felicity Jones – On the Basis of Sex
2. Amy Adams – Backseat
3. Saoirse Ronan – Mary Queen of Scots
4. Kristen Stewart – JT Leroy
5. Cate Blanchett – Where’d You Go Bernadette?

Next in line: 6. Glenn Close – The Wife 7. Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me? 8. Charlize Theron – Tully 9. Carey Mulligan – Wildlife 10. Stefani Germanotta – A Star is Born

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Sam Rockwell – Backseat
2. Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther
3. Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4. Bruce Dern – White Boy Rick
5. Billy Crudup – Where’d You Go Bernadette?

Next in line: 6. Al Pacino – The Irishman 7. Corey Stoll – First Man 8. Timothee Chalamet – Beautiful Boy 9. Joe Pesci – The Irishman 10. Sam Elliott – A Star is Born

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots
2. Claire Foy – First Man
3. Vera Farmiga – The Front Runner
4. Diane Kruger – The Women of Marwen
5. Laura Dern – JT Leroy

Next in line: 6. Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased 7. Riley Keough – Under the Silver Lake 8. Emily Blunt – A Quiet Place 9. Meryl Streep – Mary Poppins Returns 10. Mackenzie Davis – Tully

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Backseat
2. On the Basis of Sex
3. Peterloo
4. White Boy Rick
5. Ad Astra

Next in line: 6. The Favourite 7. Mid 90’s 8. Everybody Knows 9. Tully 10. A Quiet Place

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Front Runner
2. First Man
3. BlackKklansman
4. The Irishman
5. Black Panther

Next in line: 6. If Beale Street Could Talk 7. Wildlife 8. Where’d You Go Bernadette? 9. Beautiful Boy 10. Widows

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. The Incredibles 2
2. Isle of Dogs
3. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck It Ralph 2
4. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
5. The Grinch

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Black Panther
2. First Man
3. Solo: A Star Wars Story
4. Ready Player One
5. Bohemian Rhapsody

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Ad Astra
2. The Irishman
3. First Man
4. A Star is Born
5. Cold War

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Black Panther
2. Mary Queen of Scots
3. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. A Wrinkle in Time

BEST FILM EDITING

1. First Man
2. Black Panther
3. The Irishman
4. BlackKklansman
5. Backseat

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Black Panther
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Mary Poppins Returns

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
3. A Star is Born
4. Bohemian Rhapsody
5. A Quiet Place

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom
3. A Star is Born
4. Bohemian Rhapsody
5. A Quiet Place

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Annihilation
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Solo: A Star Wars Story
4. Ready Player One
5. Ant-Man and the Wasp

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. First Man
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. Ready Player One
4. Under the Silver Lake
5. Solo: A Star Wars Story

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Hearts Beat Loud
2. A Star is Born
3. Fifty Shades Freed
4. Mary Poppins Returns
5. Black Panther

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
2. RBG
3. The Final Year
4. On Her Shoulders
5. Inventing Tomorrow

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Cold War
2. Roma
3. Everybody Knows
4. Sunset
5. Loro

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???


Stay tuned for updated Oscar predictions next month!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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