Updated Oscar predictions for July 2018

As July and the start of the second half of the year progresses, Academy Award hopefuls are beginning to make their moves. Just in the past days, we’ve gotten a whole host of Trailers (we didn’t even have time to share the new Welcome to Marwen one), as well as certain contenders making fall film festival moves. In case you missed it, Damien Chazelle’s First Man will open the Venice Film Festival, while just today we learned that Bradley Cooper’s A Star is Born will also play at that fest. Throw in Alfonso Cuaron’s Roma ad the Centerpiece Selection of the New York Film Festival, and movies with awards aspirations are beginning to set themselves up for success. As such, isn’t it a perfect time to update predictions?

What I’ve done today is expand the Best Picture rankings to 30. The update next month will spread longer lists to other categories, but for now, Picture comes first. I’ve also removed Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman for the moment. It probably will be a 2018 contender, but with a 2019 Netflix release date right this second, it can wait to be included again. For now, there’s some upward movement from another movie that got a Trailer recently we didn’t cover, namely Mary Queen of Scots. There’s plenty of films still waiting to make their play, so this isn’t a huge update, but there’s been tinkering all around…


Here now are some updated Oscar predictions to share:

BEST PICTURE

1. First Man
2. BlackKklansman
3. If Beale Street Could Talk
4. Untitled Dick Cheney Biopic
5. The Front Runner
6. Boy Erased
7. A Star is Born
8. Beautiful Boy
9. Mary Queen of Scots
10. On the Basis of Sex

Next in line: 11. Black Panther 12. The Favourite 13. The Old Man and the Gun 14. Widows 15. White Boy Rick 16. Mid 90’s 17. Peterloo 18. Bohemian Rhapsody 19. Can You Ever Forgive Me? 20. Welcome to Marwen 21. The Sisters Brothers 22. Wildlife 23. Roma 24. JT Leroy 25. Disobedience 26. Life Itself 27. Eighth Grade 28. Sorry to Bother You 29. Mary Poppins Returns 30. Hearts Beat Loud

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Damien Chazelle – First Man
3. Spike Lee – BlackKklansman
4. Adam McKay – Untitled Dick Cheney Biopic
5. Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born

Next in line: 6. Ryan Coogler – Black Panther 7. Jason Reitman – The Front Runner 8. Mimi Leder – On the Basis of Sex 9. Joel Edgerton – Boy Erased 10. Josie Rourke – Mary Queen of Scots

BEST ACTOR

1. Hugh Jackman – The Front Runner
2. Ryan Gosling – First Man
3. Christian Bale – Untitled Dick Cheney Biopic
4. Lucas Hedges – Boy Erased
5. Robert Redford – The Old Man and the Gun

Next in line: 6. Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody 7. Steve Carell – Beautiful Boy (or Welcome to Marwen) 8. Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born 9. Matthew McConaughey – White Boy Rick 10. John David Washington – BlackKklansman

BEST ACTRESS

1. Felicity Jones – On the Basis of Sex
2. Saoirse Ronan – Mary Queen of Scots
3. Kristen Stewart – JT Leroy
4. Stefani Germanotta (Lady Gaga) – A Star is Born
5. Glenn Close – The Wife

Next in line: 6. Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me? 7. Toni Collette – Hereditary 8. Viola Davis – Widows 9. Rachel Weisz – Disobedience 10. Carey Mulligan – Wildlife

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Sam Elliott – A Star is Born
2. Timothee Chalamet – Beautiful Boy (Could Go Lead)
3. Sam Rockwell – Untitled Dick Cheney Biopic
4. Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Bruce Dern – White Boy Rick

Next in line: 6. Oscar Isaac – At Eternity’s Gate 7. Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther 8. Kyle Chandler – First Man 9. Adam Driver – BlackKklansman 10. Armie Hammer – On the Basis of Sex

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Amy Adams – Untitled Dick Cheney Biopic
2. Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots
3. Claire Foy – First Man
4. Vera Farmiga – The Front Runner
5. Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased

Next in line: 6. Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk 7. Sissy Spacek – The Old Man and the Gun 8. Laura Dern – JT Leroy 9. Diane Kruger – Welcome to Marwen 10. Emily Blunt – A Quiet Place

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Untitled Dick Cheney Biopic
2. The Favourite
3. On the Basis of Sex
4. Peterloo
5. Sorry to Bother You

Next in line: 6. White Boy Rick 7. Mid 90’s 8. Hearts Beat Loud 9. Everybody Knows 10. Eighth Grade

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. BlackKklansman
2. First Man
3. The Front Runner
4. If Beale Street Could Talk
5. Mary Queen of Scots

Next in line: 6. Black Panther 7. Wildlife 8. A Star is Born 9. Beautiful Boy 10. Widows

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. The Incredibles 2
2. Isle of Dogs
3. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck It Ralph 2
5. The Grinch

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Mary Queen of Scots
2. First Man
3. Black Panther
4. Ready Player One
5. Bohemian Rhapsody

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. A Star is Born
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. First Man
4. Mary Queen of Scots
5. Cold War

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Black Panther
2. Mary Queen of Scots
3. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
4. First Man
5. Mary Poppins Returns

BEST FILM EDITING

1. First Man
2. Black Panther
3. If Beale Street Could Talk
4. BlackKklansman
5. Untitled Dick Cheney Biopic

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Black Panther
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Mary Poppins Returns

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. A Star is Born
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
4. A Quiet Place
5. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. A Star is Born
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
4. A Quiet Place
5. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Annihilation
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Solo: A Star Wars Story
4. Ready Player One
5. Ant-Man and the Wasp

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. First Man
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. BlackKklansman
4. Mary Queen of Scots
5. Isle of Dogs

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. A Star is Born
2. Hearts Beat Loud
3. A Star is Born
4. Boy Erased
5. Mary Poppins Returns

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
2. RBG
3. The Final Year
4. On Her Shoulders
5. The King

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Cold War
2. Roma
3. Everybody Knows
4. Sunset
5. Loro

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???


Stay tuned for updated Oscar predictions at some point next month!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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