An early August update to Academy Award predictions


Things are getting interesting. Even just removed from the Academy’s hot button announcement on Wednesday, we have awards season coming up before you know it. The big film festivals will be getting underway in a matter of weeks. Last minute maneuvers by late breaking contenders, other pretenders delaying into 2019…it’s an exciting time. As such, it seems only right to update my Oscar predictions before anything else goes down here in the late summer. So, that’s exactly what I’m going to do. Next time out, I’ll even expand things a bit, but for the moment at least, this is where we’re at.

What you’ll notice below is that I’ve gone hard for The Ballad of Buster Scruggs. There are also rumors that Ad Astra will be getting a 2018 release, but I’ll hold off on adding that one until later on in the month, since I plan on moving on to two updates at least per month. I also dropped JT Leroy for now, at least until it picks up a distributor. Then, perhaps even against my better judgment (I probably should have waited until the Academy explains things more), I’ve also included the brand new Academy Award category at the bottom. Yes, I’ve added predicted nominees for Best Popular Film. You win, Academy. Sigh…


Here now are my latest Oscar predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. First Man
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. BlackKklansman
4. A Star is Born
5. Untitled Dick Cheney Biopic
6. The Front Runner
7. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
8. The Favourite
9. Mary Queen of Scots
10. On the Basis of Sex

Next in line: 11. Boy Erased 12. Black Panther 13. The Old Man and the Gun 14. Widows 15. Beautiful Boy 16. White Boy Rick 17. Peterloo 18. Bohemian Rhapsody 19. Can You Ever Forgive Me? 20. Welcome to Marwen 21. The Sisters Brothers 22. At Eternity’s Gate 23. Roma 24. Wildlife 25. Disobedience 26. Life Itself 27. Eighth Grade 28. Sorry to Bother You 29. Mary Poppins Returns 30. Hearts Beat Loud

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Barry Jenkins – If Beale Street Could Talk
2. Damien Chazelle – First Man
3. Spike Lee – BlackKklansman
4. Adam McKay – Untitled Dick Cheney Biopic
5. Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born

Next in line: 6. Yorgos Lanthimos – The Favourite 7. Joel Coen and Ethan Coen – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 8. Ryan Coogler – Black Panther 9. Jason Reitman – The Front Runner 10. Josie Rourke – Mary Queen of Scots

BEST ACTOR

1. Hugh Jackman – The Front Runner
2. Ryan Gosling – First Man
3. Christian Bale – Untitled Dick Cheney Biopic
4. Robert Redford – The Old Man and the Gun
5. Willem Dafoe – At Eternity’s Gate

Next in line: 6. Rami Malek – Bohemian Rhapsody 7. Bradley Cooper – A Star is Born 8. Lucas Hedges – Boy Erased 9. Steve Carell – Beautiful Boy (or Welcome to Marwen) 10. John David Washington – BlackKklansman

BEST ACTRESS

1. Felicity Jones – On the Basis of Sex
2. Saoirse Ronan – Mary Queen of Scots
3. Stefani Germanotta (Lady Gaga) – A Star is Born
4. Melissa McCarthy – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
5. Olivia Colman – The Favourite

Next in line: 6. Glenn Close – The Wife 7. Toni Collette – Hereditary 8. Viola Davis – Widows 9. Rachel Weisz – Disobedience (or The Favourite) 10. Carey Mulligan – Wildlife

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Sam Elliott – A Star is Born
2. Timothee Chalamet – Beautiful Boy (Could Go Lead)
3. Richard E. Grant – Can You Ever Forgive Me?
4. Sam Rockwell – Untitled Dick Cheney Biopic
5. Bruce Dern – White Boy Rick

Next in line: 6. Oscar Isaac – At Eternity’s Gate 7. Michael B. Jordan – Black Panther 8. Kyle Chandler – First Man 9. Armie Hammer – On the Basis of Sex 10. Adam Driver – BlackKklansman

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Amy Adams – Untitled Dick Cheney Biopic
2. Margot Robbie – Mary Queen of Scots
3. Claire Foy – First Man
4. Vera Farmiga – The Front Runner
5. Nicole Kidman – Boy Erased

Next in line: 6. Regina King – If Beale Street Could Talk 7. Sissy Spacek – The Old Man and the Gun 8. Zoe Kazan – The Ballad of Buster Scruggs 9. Emma Stone – The Favourite 10. Emily Blunt – A Quiet Place

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Untitled Dick Cheney Biopic
2. The Favourite
3. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
4. Peterloo
5. On the Basis of Sex

Next in line: 6. Sorry to Bother You 7. White Boy Rick 8. Hearts Beat Loud 9. Everybody Knows 10. Eighth Grade

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. BlackKklansman
2. First Man
3. The Front Runner
4. If Beale Street Could Talk
5. Mary Queen of Scots

Next in line: 6. Black Panther 7. Wildlife 8. A Star is Born 9. Beautiful Boy 10. Widows

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. The Incredibles 2
2. Isle of Dogs
3. Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse
4. Ralph Breaks the Internet: Wreck It Ralph 2
5. The Grinch

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Mary Queen of Scots
2. First Man
3. Black Panther
4. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
5. Bohemian Rhapsody

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. A Star is Born
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. First Man
4. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
5. The Favourite

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Black Panther
2. Mary Queen of Scots
3. Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
4. The Favourite
5. Mary Poppins Returns

BEST FILM EDITING

1. First Man
2. Black Panther
3. If Beale Street Could Talk
4. BlackKklansman
5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Black Panther
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Mary Poppins Returns

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. A Star is Born
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
4. A Quiet Place
5. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Avengers: Infinity War
2. A Star is Born
3. Bohemian Rhapsody
4. A Quiet Place
5. Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Annihilation
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Solo: A Star Wars Story
4. Ready Player One
5. Ant-Man and the Wasp

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. First Man
2. If Beale Street Could Talk
3. BlackKklansman
4. Mary Queen of Scots
5. The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. A Star is Born
2. Hearts Beat Loud
3. Boy Erased
4. Black Panther
5. Mary Poppins Returns

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Won’t You Be My Neighbor?
2. Three Identical Strangers
3. RBG
4. The Final Year
5. The King

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Roma
2. Cold War
3. Everybody Knows
4. Sunset
5. Shoplifters

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

And introducing the newest category…

BEST POPULAR FILM

1. Black Panther
2. Avengers: Infinity War
3. Mission: Impossible – Fallout
4. A Quiet Place
5. Mary Poppins Returns


Stay tuned for anther update before the month is out!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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