BY SCOTT FEINBERG

In this week’s edition of “The Feinberg Feed,” Scott explains why he agrees with the majority of pundits that the best picture category is a two-horse race, but why he disagrees with them that the race is between “The Hurt Locker” and “Avatar.” Instead, he argues, the biggest threat to “The Hurt Locker” comes from “Inglourious Basterds.”

“Avatar,” Feinberg grants, has made a fortune at the box-office and changed the means of production and distribution forever. But the film didn’t score an acting nod or a screenplay nod, and while several films have won with only one or the other only one has ever won without either — and that was 77 years ago, predating the first era of 10 best picture nominees.

“Basterds,” meanwhile, also did well critically and commercially but is much less polarizing, which should help it (and hurt “Avatar”) on the new preferential ballot. It also carries four key nominations that the vast majority of best picture winners have always had: a directing nod, an acting nod, a screenplay nod, and an editing nod. This year, only “The Hurt Locker,” “Inglourious Basterds,” and “Precious” (which is far too divisive a film to win with the preferential ballot) have them.

Feinberg cautions that there are firsts for everything and that one therefore cannot totally discount “Avatar” as a possible best picture winner, but considering all of the above — as well as the precursor success of “The Hurt Locker” (DGA, PGA, ACE, etc.) and “Inglourious Basterds” (SAG), not to mention the lack of precursor success for “Avatar” (it won only with the HFPA, which has no overlap with the Academy) — it seems highly unlikely that it can top the other two.

BY SCOTT FEINBERG

HollywoodNews.com’s Scott Feinberg discusses the oscar nominations and how they might affect the outcome of the awards. In this episode we review how “The Blind Side” nomination for Best Picture could help Sandra Bullock’s chances to win Best Actress over Meryl Streep. We also compare the chances of “The Hurt Locker” winning over “Avatar” for best picture.

On this week’s edition of “The Feinberg Feed,” Scott tries to sort through the mess of the race created by the precursors, which have hardly agreed on a thing! As he discusses in-depth: the festival circuit went for “Precious” (Sundance and Toronto); actors went for “Inglourious Basterds” (SAG); the critics split between “The Hurt Locker” (NYFCC, LAFCA, NSFC) and “Up in the Air” (NBR); and the fans sided wholeheartedly with “Avatar” (HFPA, box-office, etc.). Who, then, has the edge?

Well, based on last Sunday’s shocking upset win by “The Hurt Locker” over “Avatar” at the PGA Awards, one has to give Kathryn Bigelow’s Iraq war film the benefit of the doubt. But, with Oscar nominations only a week away, a lot of people will turn to Saturday evening’s DGA Awards — which are probably the most accurate of all the Oscar bellwethers, having picked the director of the eventual Oscar winner for best picture on all but 16 occasions over the past 61 years — for the best indication of who will be out front after Oscar nominations are finally revealed bright and early on Tuesday morning!

The best picture category under the microscope: Scott Feinberg at the “Feinberg Feed” concludes that seven films are “locks” for nominations — “Avatar,” “Up in the Air,” “The Hurt Locker,” “Inglourious Basterds,” “Precious,” “An Education,” and “Invictus” — while nine others are competing for the category’s three remaining slots. To watch The Feinberg Feed video click here.

Check out the video (below) to hear Scott make the arguments for and against each of them — “Up,” “A Serious Man,” “District 9,” “The Messenger,” “Julie & Julia,” “Star Trek,” “The Blind Side,” “Nine,” and “Crazy Heart” — and then share your reactions/picks in the comments section (below)!

Most awards prognosticators have regarded the best supporting actor race as a done-deal ever since they first saw the magnetic Christoph Waltz’s performance in “Inglourious Basterds” months ago. Indeed,
from the film’s tension-filled opening scene right through its haunting ending, Waltz steals the show right from the biggest movie star in the world, Brad Pitt. But, as phase one of the awards season comes to an end, Scott Feinberg questions whether a man who was virtually unknown a year ago, and whose name still doesn’t ring a bell for most people, can actually engender enough support to beat out a field crowded with beloved veterans like Christopher Plummer (“The Last Station”), Stanley Tucci (“The Lovely Bones”), Matt Damon (“Invictus”), and Woody Harrelson (“The Messenger”).

In this video, Feinberg argues that Waltz’s biggest threat will probably come from Harrelson, a best actor nominee for “The People vs. Larry Flynt” 13 years ago who this year opened two movies at number one at the box-office, won rave reviews for his portrayal of a stern casualty notification officer opposite Ben Foster in Oren Moverman’s small film; and has, like Waltz, already received Golden Globe and SAG nods. For much more on this race, check out this week’s installment of “The Feinberg Feed” videocast.