September 01, 2015

Tag Archives: David Fincher

The first Fall stab at Golden Globe predictions

It’s that time again…time to take a stab at Golden Globe predictions. As I previously mentioned in my last installment, I was originally planning on waiting to take a new look at Golden Globe predictions until the summer was over (so basically now), but I just couldn’t resist. Fast forward to today and I’m back now with what’s my fourth look at the Golden Globe Awards, with this time around, another new theory to try and drum up some different/more accurate predictions. Anyway, here goes nothing!
To reiterate one more time, the biggest difference that you’ll see here between the Academy and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is that they tend to go for the bigger names or the bigger productions, as well as more European fare. So yes, films like Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken, David Fincher’s Gone Girl, and Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher are here, but they’re now joined by things like James Marsh’s The Theory of Everything and Morten Tyldum’s The Imitation Game, potentially at the expense of Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar. You also still potentially lose certain indie players here, as you’ll see evidenced by much smaller nomination totals (or even shutouts) for Richard Linklater’s Boyhood, just as one example, though others could be movies like J.C. Chandor’s A Most Violent Year. On the flip side though, the inclusion of comedies and musicals allows longer shot work like John Carney’s Begin Again, Theodore Melfi’s St. Vincent, Clint Eastwood’s Jersey Boys, Rob Marshall’s Into the Woods, and maybe even Woody Allen’s Magic in the Moonlight or Zach Braff’s Wish I Was Here to have a shot at not just contention for nods, but actual noms, as well as wins. Nominations that would have been wishful thinking with the Academy and AMPAS are very much in play with the categories that the HFPA deals in. That’s just the nature of the beast here folks.
Here now though, without any further delays on my part (since we all know that you’re really here just to see what I have below), are a brand spanking new set of Golden Globe predictions:
Best Picture (Drama)
1. The Imitation Game
2. Gone Girl
3. Foxcatcher
4. The Theory of Everything
5. Unbroken
If there’s a sixth: Mr. Turner
Best Picture (Comedy or Musical)
1. Into the Woods
2. Birdman or the Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Inherent Vice
4. St. Vincent
5. Begin Again
If there’s a sixth: Neighbors
Best Actor (Drama)
1. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
2. Eddie Redmayne – The […]

Re-ranking the contenders in Best Director

As I mentioned last week, with the festival season well underway and a good portion of the major contenders for the Academy Awards having screened or about to screen, now seems like as good a time as any to take a look at the big eight categories and see what’s what in an updated and more expanded fashion. I did this with the major categories a few months back, but that was when almost everything was still speculation. We have some facts to go on now, so while much of this is still just an educated guess, I’m not completely relying on overt hunches this time around. It’s more of an even mix, depending on the film/director in question, of course. Today I’m turning my attention once again to the Best Director field, which will certainly match up somewhat with Best Picture, but perhaps not necessarily in a total form. Read on to see what I mean…
Here are the ten filmmakers that I have in play for Best Director currently, with the top five cracking the lineup at this point and time:
1. David Fincher (Gone Girl) – Considering I have Gone Girl winning Best Picture right now, it makes sense that I have Fincher winning Best Director here. The very first reviews for the movie dropped last night and they heavily praise his work, even if some do wish he’d tackle less “pulpy” subject matter. That seems like a film critic’s complaint to me (even if I’ve made that same statement about other filmmakers), so that might not bother the Academy too much. I’ll know more once I see it at the New York Film Festival on Friday, but for now…it’s in the top spot. This could be in flux though.
2. Bennett Miller (Foxcatcher) – Despite the slight reduction in buzz for this one, I’m expecting a surge again once Miller’s film plays at NYFF in a few weeks time. He’s slowly becoming an overdue director as well, so it’s possible voters might just decide that now is the time. As long as he can build back up some buzz, you have to still consider him a major threat to win. Don’t sleep on Miller’s chances, as he’s always found a way in the past.
3. Alejandro González Iñárritu (Birdman or the Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) – Some have Iñárritu as the one to beat right now, but I’m not sure […]

A Mid-September Oscar Predictions Update

Oscar predictions are a funny thing. Sometimes you have to just update them wholesale, and sometimes they only require a small bit of tinkering. That’s the nature of this beast, one where a single new contender can upend the race, one way or another. With a week to go until David Fincher’s Gone Girl is seen, we’re waiting for that new contender to change the landscape, but enough has happened since my last update that I wanted to make sure I brought this new one to you now. By the end of September, a lot more will be known. Exciting, right?
If you look at what I have in this particular update, you’ll mainly see some category placement confirmation and the inclusion of Julianne Moore for Still Alice. In regards to the former concept, especially in Best Actress/Best Supporting Actress, contenders like Felicity Jones are going to be campaigned Lead, not Supporting, so there’s some clarity there. Also, until the aforementioned Gone Girl screens, I’m keeping it as a major victor, though time will tell if I’m on to something or not. It’s getting a new press from the likes of The Imitation Game as well as The Theory of Everything, which have boosted themselves in the past week or so. Next week I’ll have seen Gone Girl as well as Whiplash, so that’ll evolve the race a bit more as well. Until then, the educated guesswork will just have to continue a bit more.
Well, enough talk. I know you just want to see how the predictions have changed, so let me oblige you. Here now are my most up to date Academy Award predictions:
BEST PICTURE
1. Gone Girl
2. Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Foxcatcher
4. The Imitation Game
5. Boyhood
6. The Theory of Everything
7. Whiplash
8. Unbroken
9. Men, Women & Children
10. Rosewater
BEST DIRECTOR
1. David Fincher – Gone Girl
2. Alejandro González Iñárritu – Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher
4. Richard Linklater – Boyhood
5. James Marsh – The Theory of Everything
BEST ACTOR
1. Michael Keaton – Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
2. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
3. Steve Carell – Foxcatcher
4. Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything
5. Ben Affleck – Gone Girl
BEST ACTRESS
1. Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything
2. Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
3. Julianne Moore – Still Alice
4. Amy Adams – Big Eyes
5. Reese Witherspoon – Wild
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. J.K. Simmons – Whiplash
2. Edward Norton […]

Re-ranking the contenders in Best Picture

With the festival season well underway and a good portion of the contenders for Best Picture having screened or about to screen, now seems like as good a time as any to take a look at the category and see what’s what in an expanded fashion. I did this with the major categories a few months back, but that was when almost everything was still speculation. We have some facts to go on now, so while much of this is still just an educated guess, I’m not completely relying on hunches this time around. It’s more of an even mix, depending on the film in question, of course.
Here now are ten movies that are sitting the prettiest in my mind right now for Best Picture:
1. Gone Girl – The highest profile unseen player gets my number one spot at this point and time. If it hits during its upcoming Opening Night spot at the New York Film Festival, then we could have a real frontrunner on our hands. David Fincher is overdue to have an Oscar winner in my book, so with the right reception, this could go where The Social Network came so close to going. Until proven otherwise, I’m going to stick with this one as potentially the one to beat.
2. Birdman (or the Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) – Even though the love fest for this one died down a bit between the start of the Venice Film Festival and the end of the Toronto Film Festival, it’s still sitting pretty. A Closing Night spot at New York will keep it in the conversation too. Especially with Michael Keaton potentially being the top dog in Best Actor, you really can’t bet against this one being a huge player all across the board.
3. Foxcatcher – The buzz has quieted down a bit, but slow and steady could still ultimately win the race. Bennett Miller’s tale was initially a frontrunner, but now has faded a bit due to newer players, but something tells me that this will move up again before all is said and done. Watch out for Steve Carell especially, regardless of whether he ends up in the Best Actor or Best Supporting Actor race.
4. The Imitation Game – The past week or two has seen this biopic/period piece become not just a major player, but also likely Harvey Weinstein’s horse to back. Benedict Cumberbatch appears likely to […]

Joaquin Phoenix: Oscar veterans hoping for another nomination this year

Each and every single awards season, there are tons of both newcomers and veterans to the Oscar game. Tomorrow I’ll be taking a bit of a look at those seeking their first nominations from the Academy, but today I’m going to be going ahead and listing some of the major players who’ve already been nominated before, and in some cases are already winners. It’s leading up to me re-ranking the contenders in the major categories next week, but right now it’s just going to be a preview of which old hands to the Oscar ranch are saddling up for another ride on the awards season pony.
In the Best Actor race, the highest profile former nominee is Joaquin Phoenix, who will look for his first win this year with Inherent Vice. He represents the most likely non first time nominee who could win the Oscar in this category, though one level down we have Bradley Cooper for American Sniper and Bill Murray for St. Vincent, with Jake Gyllenhaal for Nightcrawler and Brad Pitt for Fury as other possibilities, plus Ben Affleck, who I’m counting here since he’s an Oscar winner, even if he’s never received an acting citation to date. Longer shots for nominations who’ve been to the dance before include Christian Bale for Exodus: Gods and Kings, Ralph Fiennes for The Grand Budapest Hotel, Philip Seymour Hoffman for A Most Wanted Man, Matthew McConaughey for Interstellar, Al Pacino for Manglehorn, Jeremy Renner for Kill the Messenger, and Mark Walhberg for The Gambler. Those fellas will be fighting it out with a bunch of first timers in this category, and it’s going to be a bloodbath.
Over in Best Actress, we have perennial bridesmaid Amy Adams hoping that this year she’ll finally be the bride with her work in Big Eyes. She’s going to be getting a challenge from both Jessica Chastain (for either The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby, Miss Julie, or A Most Violent Year) and Reese Witherspoon for Wild though. One level down you have Julianne Moore for Still Alice and Meryl Streep for Into the Woods, with other former nominees/winner on the hunt including Marion Cotillard for The Immigrant or Two Days One Night, Keira Knightley for Begin Again, Hilary Swank for The Homesman, Kate Winslet for A Little Chaos, and Robin Wright for The Congress. The newbies could seriously vie for a win here, but the vets have […]

A September Oscar Predictions Update

It’s that time again folks. Since we’re now into September, it’s time for me to come to you all once again with some new and (hopefully) even more up to date than ever Oscar predictions. As usual ladies and gents, I hope they’ll represent another bit of a change from overt speculation onward towards educated guesswork now that awards season is basically upon us (Telluride and Venice are in the books, with Toronto currently going on). We still have a long way to go in the season overall, as you probably can guess, and these new predictions will likely still be mostly wrong in the end anyway, but with each passing update (at least two a month now) I’m trying to figure it all out and get more and more confident in backing particular horses as opposed to others. If that sounds a bit repetitive to you, well…it’s still kind of the nature of the beast for this thing. If nothing else, this endeavor continues to sort of show where I’m coming from as the months pass and the race begins to change and evolve into something truly competitive and quantifiable, especially when precursor season kicks into gear.
Continuing on with the trend that I’ve had all year so far (including last month), you can see certain films standing above the rest. This time around, you can see movies like David Fincher’s Gone Girl, Alejandro González Iñárritu’s Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance, Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken, Richard Linklater’s Boyhood, Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher, and Jason Reitman’s Men, Women & Children are the ones that I have poised to be among the most nominated at this year’s ceremony. Overall, my predictions are only a little bit different this time around, but paying heed to some of the news I mentioned yesterday. I’m mixing and matching here now, trying to find the right match as buzz comes in on more and more contenders. It might not wind up particularly accurate yet, but until the festival season concludes and more of these movies actually screen for critics, we’re still guessing more often than not. It’s just a matter of trying to make the guesses more and more educated as the season progresses.
By now, you all must know that I could go on and on (and on and on…) about all of the changes I’ve made or considered making, but I know at this point […]

An end of the summer stab at Golden Globe predictions

Hi everyone! As previously mentioned in my last installment, I was originally planning on waiting to take a new look at Golden Globe predictions until the summer was over (so basically September), but I couldn’t resist. I’m back now with what’s my third look at the Golden Globe Awards, with this time around, a new theory to try and drum up some different predictions. Here goes nothing!
To reiterate once again, the big difference you’ll see here between the Academy and the Hollywood Foreign Press Association is that they tend to go for the bigger names or the bigger productions. As such, I’ve again got Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken and David Fincher’s Gone Girl ahead of Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher here. You also still potentially lose certain indie players, as you’ll see evidenced by much smaller nomination totals (or even shutouts) for Richard Linklater’s Boyhood, just as one example, though others could be movies like J.C. Chandor’s A Most Violent Year. On the flip side though, the inclusion of comedies and musicals allows longer shot work like John Carney’s Begin Again, Clint Eastwood’s Jersey Boys, Rob Marshall’s Into the Woods, and maybe even Woody Allen’s Magic in the Moonlight or Zach Braff’s Wish I Was Here to have a shot at not just contention for nods, but actual noms, as well as wins. Nominations that would have been wishful thinking with the Academy and AMPAS are very much in play with the categories that the HFPA deals in. That’s just the nature of the beast here folks. The one tweak here is that I’m trying to focus on some European contenders, since they often can do well with the HFPA. This could benefit contenders like The Imitation Game, Mr. Turner, and The Theory of Everything.
Here now though, without any further delay on my part, are a brand spanking new set of Golden Globe predictions:
Best Picture (Drama)
1. Unbroken
2. Gone Girl
3. Foxcatcher
4. The Imitation Game
5. Mr. Turner
Best Picture (Comedy or Musical)
1. Into the Woods
2. Inherent Vice
3. Men, Women & Children
4. Birdman or the Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
5. Begin Again
Best Actor (Drama)
1. Steve Carell – Foxcatcher
2. Timothy Spall – Mr. Turner
3. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
4. Gael Garcia Bernal – Rosewater
5. Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything
Best Actor (Comedy or Musical)
1. Joaquin Phoenix – Inherent Vice
2. Michael Keaton – Birdman or the Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Mark Ruffalo – Begin Again
4. Ralph Fiennes – […]

A Mid-August Oscar Predictions Update

Here we are again. Since we’re now in the middle of August folks, you must know what time it is. Yup, it’s time for me to come to you all once again with some new and (hopefully) even more up to date Oscar predictions, my second one this month. As usual, I hope they’ll represent another bit of a change from speculation on towards educated guesswork now that awards season is fast approaching us. We still have a long way to go in the season overall, and these new predictions will likely be mostly wrong in the end anyway, but with each passing update (two a month now) I’m trying to figure it all out and get more and more confident in backing particular horses. If that sounds a bit repetitive to you, well…it’s still kind of the nature of the beast for this thing. If nothing else, this endeavor continues to sort of show where I’m coming from as the months pass and the race begins to change and evolve into something truly competitive and quantifiable, especially when precursor season kicks into gear.
Continuing on with the trend that I’ve had all year so far (including earlier this month), you can see films like David Fincher’s Gone Girl, Alejandro González Iñárritu’s Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance, Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken, Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher, and Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar are the ones that I have poised to be among the most nominated at this year’s ceremony. Overall, my predictions are only a little bit different this time around, since last time out I totally swapped out all my winners. I’m mixing and matching here now, trying to find the right match. It might not wind up particularly accurate yet, but until the festival season begins next month and more of these movies actually screen for critics, we’re still guessing more often than not. It’s just a matter of trying to make the guesses more and more educated as the season progresses.
By now, you all obviously know that I could go on and on about all of the changes I’ve made or considered making, but I know at this point you mostly just want to see actual predictions, so here now is just how I see the Academy Awards shaping up to look like at this midway juncture in the year:
BEST PICTURE
1. Gone Girl
2. Unbroken
3. Foxcatcher
4. Boyhood
5. Birdman or The Unexpected […]

“Gone Girl” by David Fincher: An August Oscar Predictions Update

Welcome to August folks. Now that we’re well into the second half of 2014 and reaching the end of the summer, it’s time for me to come to you again with some new and (hopefully) even more up to date Oscar predictions. I sincerely hope that they’ll represent another bit of a change from speculation on towards educated guesswork now that awards season is fast approaching us. We still have a long way to go in the season overall, don’t me wrong, and these new predictions will likely be wrong more than right in the end anyway, but with each passing update I’m getting attempting to figure it all out and get more and more confident in backing particular horses as opposed to other ones that I’ve mentioned previously. If that sounds a bit repetitive to you, well…that’s still kind of the nature of the beast for this. If nothing else, this endeavor continues to sort of show where I’m coming from as the months pass and the race begins to change and evolve into something truly competitive and quantifiable, especially when precursor season kicks into gear later on in 2014.
Continuing the trend I’ve had all year so far, you can see that films like Angelina Jolie’s Unbroken, Bennett Miller’s Foxcatcher, and Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar are the ones that I have pegged to be among the most nominated at this year’s ceremony, though it’s now joined by Alejandro González Iñárritu’s Birdman as well and David Fincher’s Gone Girl. Overall, my predictions are a bit different this time, in a purposefully experimental way. I’m predicting new winners in each of the major categories (and all of the technical ones as well, so it’s brand new winners all around), seeing how they look as compared to what I’ve been saying so far this year. It might not wind up particularly accurate, but until the festival season begins next month and more of these movies actually screen, we’re still guessing more often than not. It’s just a matter of trying to make the guesses more and more educated as the season progresses.
Obviously, you al know that I could go on about all of the major changes that I’ve made (basically all over the place, which translates to everywhere, at least in terms of winners) this time around, particularly with titles like MacBeth and Suite française opting to delay until next awards season, but […]

Will Comic Con ever launch a Best Picture winner?

Each and every year, it seems like the annual San Diego Comic Con becomes more of a launching pad for future summer blockbusters. Now sure, they also still have comic books and television shows and everything in between (including talks by Kevin Smith), but these days most outlets go to cover the film studio panels, getting early looks at upcoming superhero flicks and the like. Something you rarely see though is prestige pictures getting put forward. Could that change one day though? Could we one day see Comic Con become a place where Oscar hopefuls go to tease voters early? I’m not sure we ever will in that overt way, but I think we’re going to see at the very least nominees come from the Con. With the convention coming to a close over the weekend, this sort of thing has been on my mind a bit.
What do I mean when I say that we’ll at least see nominees from the Con? Take for example how Warner Brothers brought out Christopher Nolan during their panel to talk about Interstellar, their upcoming science fiction epic. Hot on the heels of Gravity likely being the runner up in Best Picture at the most recent Academy Awards, there’s certainly the possibility that this could contend for a win in the top category. Sci-fi seems to be the most likely correlation here, but I don’t think it’s the only one to be found. Perhaps going forward war films can try to take this route as well?
While a superhero flick is unlikely to ever crack the lineup at this point (if The Avengers or The Dark Knight couldn’t do it, it’ll be a while before a new type of superhero movie comes out and can), something based off of a pre-existing property certainly could. If The Hobbit franchise from Peter Jackson had been better received, that’s one example for sure. Also, imagine if Comic Con had been as big as it is now back when David Fincher’s Fight Club had come out? It’s not hard to see that having a big Hall H presentation and wowing the crowd. There’s clearly types of films that can appeal to both a Hall H audience member and an Oscar voter…
Basically, film festivals currently serve the same purpose for prestige fare as Comic Con does for blockbusters. An exclusive group of audience members and journalists see something early (a […]

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