January 01, 2015

Tag Archives: Julianne Moore

A look at the second spot in each of the main Oscar categories

As much as people in the prognostication line of work (like me) tend to focus in on the number one spot in every Academy Award category, it’s just as important to figure out who or what the number two is. Even before the Oscar nominations have been handed out, you want to have an idea of the contender order, since that’s how you determine if any upsets could be in the cards. Sometimes, they’ll come out of nowhere, but most of the time the alternate winner is someone or something you can see coming. To quote a colleague of mine, very few people ever think there’s going to be an Oscar upset every year…until they happen. As such, I’m going to be taking a look at the number two spots in the big eight categories today. Hopefully, we can try and figure out where the upsets might be found.
In Best Picture, the number two position seems to be held by Selma, behind Boyhood of course. There are other somewhat viable winners like Birdman and The Imitation Game, but if you really look at the Academy, it appears likely to come down to Boyhood against Selma. Currently, the former is pretty far out front, but due to its unique nature, there’s plenty of time for the latter to make a real play for the victory. It’ll likely go down to the wire.
With Best Director, it’s actually probably Alejandro González Iñárritu for Birdman in spot number two, behind Richard Linklater for Boyhood. There certainly is room for an upset/split between Picture and Director, but I’m not going to predict one this early in the game. Ava DuVernay isn’t far behind for Selma, but the history making nomination that her inclusion would be might be enough for voters. Iñárritu right now is my fairly clear cut runner up.
Best Actor is a different story entirely. Without a clear cut favorite, everyone is essentially number one and number two. However, if for argument’s sake we presume that Michael Keaton is a slight frontrunner for Birdman, the number two slot is most likely Eddie Redmayne’s for The Theory of Everything. He’s only an eyelash in front of Benedict Cumberbatch for The Imitation Game and David Oyelowo for Selma, but he’s in front. Anyone who gets in will have a chance to win though, so stay tuned. Redmayne is just the current placeholder.
For Best Actress, it appears […]

Golden Globe post nomination predictions for December

As we move from Phase One to Phase Two of the awards season, things begin to take a new turn. Now, it’s not only predicting who and what is going to be nominated, but also now a focus on potential winners comes into play. In a few categories, the winner has more or less been clear as day, but in the majority of them it’s an open race still. As such, I’m going to take a shot today at attempting to predict the Golden Globe awards. The members of the Hollywood Foreign Press Association made their nomination picks recently, so now I get to sort through them and try to figure out how the Globes will turn out…
Before I show you the predictions, I’ll quickly give you my train of thought. Essentially, I tried to split things between Birdman and Boyhood, since I’m not sure how the voters are going to deal with The Imitation Game, Into the Woods, and The Theory of Everything. I don’t think all three will get shut out of wins, but at least one likely will. There are a few safe bets here, with the Globes likely to cite Patricia Arquette in Best Supporting Actress for one of Boyhood’s wins, Julianne Moore in Best Actress (Drama) for Still Alice, and J.K. Simmons in Best Supporting Actor for Whiplash. Those are close to locks. The other categories, give or take Best Animated Feature for The Lego Movie, are certainly up for grabs. As such, for now I’m looking to Birdman to do very well in the Comedy/Musical fields while Boyhood leads the charge in Drama. A lot remains to be seen though, so sit tight. The race is far from over at this still early juncture. Technically it’s not even Phase Two yet! We have a long way to go.
Alright, enough talk. Time for the good stuff, right? Here now is how I currently see the Golden Globe awards going down:
Best Picture (Drama)
1. Boyhood
2. The Theory of Everything
3. The Imitation Game
4. Selma
5. Foxcatcher
Best Picture (Comedy or Musical)
1. Birdman or the Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. Into the Woods
4. St. Vincent
5. Pride
Best Actor (Drama)
1. Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything
2. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
3. David Oyelowo – Selma
4. Steve Carell – Foxcatcher
5. Jake Gyllenhaal – Nightcrawler
Best Actor (Comedy or Musical)
1. Michael Keaton – Birdman or the Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
2. Bill […]

A Mid-December Oscar Predictions Update

We’re almost at the point where it’s time for weekly Oscar prediction updates folks. It’s not quite that time, but before long it’ll be bi-weekly at least, with some precursor winner predictions thrown in for good measure. Anyway, since it’s the middle of the month, it’s time for new Academy Award predictions. With the precursors in full swing, there’s no shortage of things to consider, so expect a bit of a change in how a number of my categories look. There’s only a matter of weeks left to nail down who the nominees will wind up being, so the final time to play games is now. Once we hit January, things are far more serious. There’s no way to get things 100% accurate, but I certainly aim to come as close as I can.
What you’ll mainly see here in this latest update is a real swing in the favor of Wes Anderson’s film The Grand Budapest Hotel. What I once had all but getting shut out could now be in line for perhaps a half a dozen nominations. I highly doubt that a total as high as that will actually occur, but the possibility is officially there. If the precursors did one thing (aside from solidifying Richard Linklater’s Boyhood as the current frontrunner/one to beat), it was to give Anderson and his movie a second life. We’ll see if it lasts, but it’s certainly been something that I took notice of. Other new things reflected here include slightly tinkered with Best Original Score and Best Original Song predictions, with the latter showing the actual song now, since the long list has now come out (along with the bake off titles for Best Hairstyling and Makeup having been announced as well). There’s still the Best Foreign Language Feature long list that we need to see, but that could be basically at any moment now, so if it hits soon I’ll just update here and make a notation. (It came out, so that’s reflected here too)
Here now, without any further delay, are my brand spanking new/up to date Academy Award predictions. Behold:
BEST PICTURE
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Selma
4. The Imitation Game
5. The Theory of Everything
6. Whiplash
7. The Grand Budapest Hotel
8. Gone Girl
9. Foxcatcher
10. Interstellar
Next in line: 11. A Most Violent Year 12. Into the Woods 13. Unbroken 14. Wild 15. American Sniper 16. Nightcrawler 17. Mr. Turner 18. […]

Updated Oscar predictions after the Golden Globe and SAG announcements

Happy Friday everyone! With the nominations for the Golden Globe awards and the Screen Actors Guild awards really giving a bit more shape to the Academy Award race, I thought it was time to break in a bit early with some new predictions. Yes, consider this a bonus Oscar prediction update. Enough has changed that I really think it’s apt to begin putting these up a little more often. I’m not sure I’ll do it every week just yet, but we’re closing in on that sort of time period. Obviously we’ve seen certain titles/performances really come on strong this week, while others have really faded. As such, there’s a fair amount of movement in this update.
Most notably, I’ve boosted Birdman, The Grand Budapest Hotel, and Nightcrawler, while backing away from The Imitation Game, Interstellar, and Selma, to one degree or another, not to mention almost completely abandoning Unbroken. The Imitation Game and Selma are still viable Best Picture winners, but Birdman has jumped past them for now. Obviously, everything is in the shadow of Boyhood until further notice, but the jockeying below it is going on hot and heavy. Lots can and still will happen between now and the Oscar nominations being announced, so it’s hardly a set field by any stretch of the imagination.
Here now are my most up to date Academy Award predictions, reflecting the Globe and SAG nomination results (including a quick additional update to reflect the scores and songs deemed eligible by the Academy):
BEST PICTURE
1. Boyhood
2. Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Selma
4. The Imitation Game
5. Whiplash
6. Gone Girl
7. Foxcatcher
8. The Theory of Everything
9. A Most Violent Year
10. Interstellar
Next in line: 11. Unbroken 12. The Grand Budapest Hotel 13. Into the Woods 14. American Sniper 15. Fury 16. Wild 17. Mr. Turner 18. Inherent Vice 19. Nightcrawler 20. Rosewater
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Richard Linklater – Boyhood
2. Alejandro González Iñárritu – Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Ava DuVernay – Selma
4. David Fincher – Gone Girl
5. Damien Chazelle – Whiplash
Next in line: 6. Morten Tyldum – The Imitation Game 7. J.C. Chandor – A Most Violent Year 8. Clint Eastwood – American Sniper 9. Christopher Nolan – Interstellar 10. Wes Anderson – The Grand Budapest Hotel
BEST ACTOR
1. Michael Keaton – Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
2. Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything
3. David Oyelowo – Selma
4. Jake Gyllenhaal – Nightcrawler
5. Steve Carell – Foxcatcher
Next […]

A December Oscar Predictions Update

Well, the calendar has turned to December folks, so now we’re getting serious here in terms of Oscar predictions. Precursor awards are in full swing now, so expect the Academy Award picture to begin to clear itself up little by little. As I keep saying, that doesn’t mean that from now on we’ll suddenly know how the whole thing will go down, but we’re close to the point where things should make more sense. Without any unseen contenders left, all that’s left is figuring out how these various Oscar hopefuls will do. Well, that’s what I’m here for ladies and gentlemen, so let’s figure it out!
The big new piece of information here is that I’ve now seen and digested Angelina Jolie’s film Unbroken. Honestly, I’m skeptical that it’ll be a major player, which is why I now have it snubbed in the Best Picture category and not going home with a single win. I could be wrong, but I also think that Jolie will fall short in Best Director and Jack O’Connell won’t be able to break through in the Best Actor race. It’s not that I don’t think it’s a good movie, because it is, but it doesn’t feel like something that can stand up to the major players in this race. As such, voters might leave it behind.
This leaves us mostly with a race that’s going to come down to Richard Linklater’s Boyhood, Morten Tyldum’s The Imitation Game, and Ava DuVernay’s Selma in terms of Best Picture as well as Best Director. You can make the case that Alejandro González Iñárritu’s Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance is a potential dark horse, but aside from that, it’s those three. You’ll see what I think will happen below, but get used to seeing those titles a lot, because those are the names that will compete for Oscar glory.
Anyway, it’s time to get down to business, right? Without further delay, here is how I see the Academy Award nominations going at this current juncture, with once again my next in line picks listed for completion/as a bonus. Behold:
BEST PICTURE
1. Boyhood
2. Selma
3. The Imitation Game
4. Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
5. Interstellar
6. Gone Girl
7. Whiplash
8. The Theory of Everything
9. Foxcatcher
10. A Most Violent Year
Next in line: 11. Unbroken 12. American Sniper 13. Into the Woods 14. Fury 15. Rosewater 16. Wild 17. Mr. Turner 18. Inherent Vice 19. Nightcrawler […]

“A Most Violent Year” wins Best Picture from the National Board of Review

Moments ago (and after keeping us on the edges of our respective seats all morning/afternoon) the National Board of Review unveiled their 2014 award winners, marking another early juncture in the precursor season. After shocking a lot of people, including myself, by giving their top prize last year to Spike Jonze’s Her, they opted this year to cite A Most Violent Year as their Best Picture of 2014. The J.C. Chandor directed film led the field with three major citations, while Birdman was next in line with two. NBR definitely had an eye on mixing things up and did so, giving a whole new slate of winners after yesterday’s New York Film Critics Circle announcement.
Obviously, the Best Picture win is a boon to Chandor’s film. Taking this prize from the likes of Boyhood, The Imitation Game, and Selma (plus Unbroken, though that’s looking less like a major player right now…more on that soon) gives A Most Violent Year a leg up on some of the other contenders hoping to crack Oscar’s lineup. Does this make it a lock for the Academy? No, but it’s something for sure and clearly puts it in the top 15 at the very least. NBR isn’t the last word by any stretch, but it’s a notable early precursor, so this win is worth paying attention to. The film also tied in Best Actor, seeing Oscar Isaac share the prize with Birdman’s Michael Keaton, as well as won Best Supporting Actress for Jessica Chastain. That’s nothing to scoff at.
The other big winner today was obviously Birdman, which had the Best Actor tie as well as the National Board of Review choosing Edward Norton as its Best Supporting Actor. If you want to get technical, it might have even tied with A Most Violent Year for the most citations, as it also showed up as one of the group’s Top Ten Films of 2014. A solid haul for sure, and one that also gives it a bit of a boost, particularly with the likes of Boyhood and The Imitation Game just showing up on that list and nowhere else. Selma only received a Freedom of Expression Award, so at least for today, Birdman beat them all back.
Elsewhere, Best Director went to perennial NBR favorite Clint Eastwood for American Sniper, while Julianne Moore took home Best Actress for Still Alice. Best Original Screenplay went to The Lego Movie […]

Golden Globe predictions for November

It’s Black Friday, so I know you’re all mostly concerned with taking advantage of various sales, but since it’s also the end of November, I wanted to bring some new Golden Globe predictions to you as well. We’ve been doing these for a while now, but this represents likelythe final one I’ll be doing before the actual nominations are announced in about two weeks on December 11th (unless I preview the announcement with a final set of predictions…we’ll see). As such, I’m hoping to really nail them this time around, and try to figure out how the Hollywood Foreign Press Association might go with their nods. The HFPA can go in some odd directions too, so these noms might even be a little more Oscar friendly than they wind up being. We’ll see though.
The biggest addition this time around is accounting for Selma in the race. I still had it shut out last time around, and while I don’t necessarily think it’s going to dominate the Globes, I do think a shut out isn’t going to happen. I also had to try to figure out what to do with Unbroken, which I don’t see until Monday. As such, I left it alone for the most part. If I do indeed do one last update to these predictions, it’ll be due at least in part to a need to account for the film, one way or another. Perhaps I’ll need to predict it for some wins? Perhaps I’ll need to drop it completely? Somewhere in between? I’ll find out at the beginning of next week and report in on the film itself, but if I do update Globe predictions, reflections on that movie will be involved for sure.
Here now though, without any further delay on my part (since as always we know that you’re really here just to see what I have below in each of the categories), are a brand spanking new set of Golden Globe nomination predictions to pour over. Behold:
Best Picture (Drama)
1. The Imitation Game
2. Selma
3. Boyhood
4. Gone Girl
5. Unbroken
If there’s a sixth: Interstellar
Best Picture (Comedy or Musical)
1. Into the Woods
2. Birdman or the Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Whiplash
4. Begin Again
5. St. Vincent
If there’s a sixth: The Grand Budapest Hotel
Best Actor (Drama)
1. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
2. Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything
3. David Oyelowo – Selma
4. Steve Carell – Foxcatcher
5. Timothy Spall – Mr. Turner
If […]

“Birdman”, “Boyhood”, “Nightcrawler”, and “Selma” lead the 30th Spirit Awards nominations

Just a few moments ago, the 2015 Independent Spirit Awards announced their nominations for their 30th annual ceremony, once again providing a mix of future Academy Award nominees and smaller contenders getting their moment in the sun. In terms of the former, Birdman (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance) lead the nominations with a half dozen citations, followed by Boyhood and Selma with five each. Nightcrawler also scored a total of five, with Whiplash not far behind at four. They mixed with more fringe contenders like Love is Strange (also at four) and the aforementioned smaller players that won’t even sniff Oscar love, such as A Girl Walks Home Alone at Night (three nominations). Overall, it was an eclectic mix, to say the least.
I won’t speculate about potential winners just yet, but I will do a quick bit of analysis. Obviously, Birdman, Boyhood, and Selma solidified their causes as top tier Academy Award players, while Nightcrawler and to a lesser degree Whiplash strengthened theirs. There isn’t really a film, filmmaker, or performance that really announced itself as an Oscar contender here, but if you want to stretch, you could say that Big Eyes popping up in Screenplay keeps that potential player afloat.
As always, there were plenty of snubs, particularly in the acting categories, where Oscar Isaac is a notable one, missing for A Most Violent Year. Also, a shutout for The Skeleton Twins boggles my mind. That being said, for the most part bigger names tend to miss for smaller contenders, so it’s hard to get too upset about that sort of thing. As such, I won’t go into who missed out today, though perhaps later in the week I’ll come back to that…
Here now are the full nominations for the Spirit Awards:
2015 FILM INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARD NOMINATIONS
BEST FEATURE
(Award given to the Producer. Executive Producers are not awarded.)
Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Producers: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, John Lesher, Arnon Milchan, James W. Skotchdopole
Boyhood
Producers: Richard Linklater, Jonathan Sehring, John Sloss, Cathleen Sutherland
Love is Strange
Producers: Lucas Joaquin, Lars Knudsen, Ira Sachs, Jayne Baron Sherman, Jay Van Hoy
Selma
Producers: Christian Colson, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, Oprah Winfrey
Whiplash
Producers: Jason Blum, Helen Estabrook, David Lancaster, Michael Litvak
BEST DIRECTOR
Damien Chazelle
Whiplash
Ava DuVernay
Selma
Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Birdman or (The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance)
Richard Linklater
Boyhood
David Zellner
Kumiko, The Treasure Hunter
BEST SCREENPLAY
Scott Alexander & Larry Karaszewski
Big Eyes
J.C. Chandor
A Most Violent Year
Dan Gilroy
Nightcrawler
Jim Jarmusch
Only Lovers Left Alive
Ira Sachs & […]

A Mid-November Oscar Predictions Update

I’m going to keep it short and sweet today folks, or at least a bit shorter than usual in terms of set up. You all know by now that it’s time for my middle of the month Oscar predictions update piece. Sometimes, there’s only a tinker or two to be done, but today…today I have a seismic shift to include, namely in the arrival of Selma on the scene. It’s gone from being shut out (what was I thinking?) to contending for wins in multiple major categories. In fact, more than one of the big eight categories have new winners listed, so this is a definite change in thinking. Some of it might be short lived, but that’s what the upcoming new set of predictions next month is for, right? I’ve also added the three short form categories (Animated Short, Documentary Short, and Live Action Short), though I know that’s not quite as big a selling point. Still, they’re there now, so don’t ignore them.
Anyway, let’s get down to business, shall we? Without further delay, here is how I see the Academy Award nominations going at this current juncture, with once again my next in line picks listed for completion. Behold:
BEST PICTURE
1. Boyhood
2. Selma
3. The Imitation Game
4. Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
5. Interstellar
6. The Theory of Everything
7. Gone Girl
8. Whiplash
9. Foxcatcher
10. Unbroken
Next in line: 11. A Most Violent Year 12. Rosewater 13. Into the Woods 14. Fury 15. American Sniper 16. Inherent Vice 17. Mr. Turner 18. Wild 19. Nightcrawler 20. Still Alice
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Richard Linklater – Boyhood
2. Ava DuVernay – Selma
3. Alejandro González Iñárritu – Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
4. Morten Tyldum – The Imitation Game
5. Christopher Nolan – Interstellar
Next in line: 6. David Fincher – Gone Girl 7. Damien Chazelle – Whiplash 8. Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher 9. Angelina Jolie – Unbroken 10. James Marsh – The Theory of Everything
BEST ACTOR
1. David Oyelowo – Selma
2. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
3. Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything
4. Michael Keaton – Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
5. Steve Carell – Foxcatcher
Next in line: 6. Jack O’Connell – Unbroken 7. Jake Gyllenhaal – Nightcrawler 8. Bradley Cooper – American Sniper 9. Matthew McConaughey – Interstellar 10. Kevin Costner – Black or White
BEST ACTRESS
1. Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything
2. Julianne Moore – Still Alice
3. Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
4. Reese Witherspoon – Wild
5. […]

Predictions for the 2015 Spirit Awards

One of the most interesting precursors to me is always the Independent Spirit Awards. They don’t always cite the same things that the Academy does, so it’s a chance to see smaller and more eclectic fare given a moment in the sun. Even though the Spirit Award have matched up with Oscar more often in the recent past than was usual, it’s still a place where you can see honors for films that wouldn’t otherwise have a chance. Personally, that’s one of the my favorite things about certain precursors, the fact that they bestow citations on worthy cinema that could have been ignored entirely.
Before I give you my shot in the dark predictions for this year’s Spirit Awards (which will announce their nominees in under two weeks…specifically on November 25th), I just wanted to further my point about the choices made by this group. Last year for example, while they awarded the likes of 12 Years a Slave, Blue Jasmine, Dallas Buyers Club, and Nebraska, they also had room to give prizes to Blue is the Warmest Color and Short Term 12 as well. Sure, Cate Blanchett, Jared Leto, Matthew McConaughey, and Lupita Nyong’o won their acting prizes just like with the Academy, but the nominees included the likes of Julie Delpy, Melonie Diaz, Will Forte, Oscar Isaac, Michael B. Jordan, Brie Larson, and Shailene Woodley. The winners may tend to match up with what Oscar voters cite, but many of the nominees are far more eclectic, which is always a good thing in my book.
Anywho, here are the best guesses I have for who and what might be cited at this year’s Independent Spirit Awards, with names and titles done alphabetically for now. When the nominations are officially announced and the actual awards show comes in February, I’ll get into potential winners. For now though, behold:
Best Feature
Birdman
Boyhood
Foxcatcher
A Most Violent Year
Whiplash
Best Director
J.C. Chandor – A Most Violent Year
Damien Chazelle – Whiplash
Jonathan Glazer – Under the Skin
Alejandro González Iñárritu – Birdman
Richard Linklater – Boyhood
Best Male Lead
Ellar Coltrane – Boyhood
Ralph Fiennes – The Grand Budapest Hotel
Oscar Isaac – A Most Violent Year
Michael Keaton – Birdman
Miles Teller – Whiplash
Best Female Lead
Jessica Chastain – The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby
Scarlett Johansson – Under the Skin
Julianne Moore – Still Alice
Jenny Slate – Obvious Child
Kristen Wiig – The Skeleton Twins
Best Supporting Male
Albert Brooks – A Most Violent Year
Ethan Hawke – Boyhood
Edward Norton – Birdman
Mark Ruffalo – […]

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