September 29, 2016

Tag Archives: oscars

Hollywood Contenders: New Oscar Predictions for September

Well, here we are. It’s the first set of Academy Award predictions for the month of September, when things get really interesting. Yes, now we can look at what Oscar could be thinking based upon, at least in part, what the fall festival season has brought us. Now, buzz from the various fests isn’t the solo factor here, but it’s one that is definitely worth utilizing. The Academy can be a specific bunch, so there isn’t perfect crossover, but in certain cases there clearly is a correlation. Voters will obviously fall in love with some of the same films before all is said and done.
What you’ll see in this Oscar lineup I’m positing is some movement by the festival darlings. Not only has La La Land solidified its frontrunner status, we’ve seen things like Jackie, Lion, and Moonlight take big jumps, along with other contenders like Arrival, Manchester by the Sea, and Nocturnal Animals maintaining their footholds in the race. We’re really only waiting on 20th Century Women, Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, Fences, and Silence to have a complete picture of what’s vying for awards this year. Two of those will be revealed at the upcoming New York Film Festival, so the X factor/mystery players will shrink even more in the coming weeks. It’s a fun time, believe me.

Here now are my up to date Academy Award predictions:
BEST PICTURE
1. La La Land
2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Manchester by the Sea
4. Lion
5. Jackie
6. Loving
7. 20th Century Women
8. Fences
9. Silence
10. Sully
Next in line: 11. Arrival 12. Moonlight 13. Nocturnal Animals 14. Passengers 15. The Birth of a Nation 16. Miss Sloane 17. Hidden Figures 18. Thank You For Your Service 19. Hell or High Water 20. Allied 21. The Founder 22. Patriot’s Day 23. Café Society 24. Snowden 25. Collateral Beauty
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Damien Chazelle – La La Land
2. Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
3, Ang Lee – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
4. Pablo Larraín – Jackie
5. Garth Davis – Lion
Next in line: 6. Martin Scorsese – Silence 7. Jeff Nichols – Loving 8. Denzel Washington – Fences 9. Mike Mills – 20th Century Women 10. Clint Eastwood – Sully
BEST ACTOR
1. Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
2. Ryan Gosling – La La Land (or The Nice Guys)
3. Michael Keaton – The Founder
4. Joel Edgerton – Loving
5. Denzel Washington – Fences
Next in line: 6. Chris Pratt – Passengers 7. Joseph […]

Hollywood Contenders: New Oscar Predictions for August

My how time flies! Suddenly, we’ve come to the final set of new predictions before the festival season arrives. Yes, next time I unleash new predictions for the Academy Awards it’ll be September, with festivals and campaigns in full swing. I’ll also be unveiling my first set of Golden Globe picks then, but first thing first. We’ve got the big one to discuss today, and plenty has happened since my previous update. There’s some controversy brewing, titles delayed into 2017, and further evidence that we’ll have at least one late breaking 2016 entry into the race. Let’s get to it and find out what I’ve settled on this time around…
What you’ll see below is some across the board tinkering with my Oscar nomination guesses, including one big removal of a previously huge contender from the major categories. That would be The Birth of a Nation, which is the least important aspect of Nate Parker’s current issues. I have a hunch that Fox Searchlight delays the film until next year, just to not have to deal with negative chatter, so this time around I’ve yanked it across the board. I may very well have it back next month, but for the moment, it’s a 2017 title in my eyes. On the flip side, more word has come out that Ben Affleck’s Live by Night is likely to be a 2016 contender, so it continues to show up in a number of categories here. You’ll see everything momentarily though, so enough talk!
Here now are my up to date Academy Award predictions:
BEST PICTURE
1. La La Land
2. Silence
3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
4. Manchester by the Sea
5. Loving
6. Live By Night
7. Lion
8. 20th Century Women
9. Nocturnal Animals
10. Passengers
Next in line: 11. Fences 12. Arrival 13. Miss Sloane 14. Jackie 15. Sully 16. The Light Between Oceans 17. The Founder 18. The Lost City of Z 19. Allied 20. Hell or High Water 21. Café Society 22. A United Kingdom 23. Thank You for Your Service 24. Collateral Beauty 25. Snowden
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Damien Chazelle – La La Land
2. Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
3, Ang Lee – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
4. Martin Scorsese – Silence
5. Ben Affleck – Live by Night
Next in line: 6. Jeff Nichols – Loving 7. Mike Mills – 20th Century Women 8. Morten Tyldum – Passengers 9. Tom Ford – Nocturnal Animals 10. Denzel Washington – Fences
BEST ACTOR
1. Casey […]

Hollywood Contenders: New Oscar Predictions for July

You knew these were coming. Predictions are probably my favorite part of this job, so obviously I was going to oblige, as always. This is a fun one too, as it’s the first update for the second half of the year. 2016 is taking a turn now, moving through the summer blockbuster movie season, with awards season and Oscar bait only a few months away. Those films are really what the Academy will focus on, so that’s where my attention is today. There’s been some definite movement, which you’ll see below, making for a slate of predicted nominees that doesn’t 100% resemble the last few that I’ve done. It’s getting to be very exciting times, ladies and gentlemen…
Two of the more notable things that have happened since last time around have been the facts that Live by Night potentially has entered the race, while The Zookeeper’s Wife left. Factor those in with baity Trailers for La La Land as well as Loving and you have the makings of some awards season buzz. La La Land is continuing to make a big play for the juggernaut spot of the predictions, so keep that in mind. I also have tried to figure out the technical categories, as well as a new look at things few are thinking about, such as Best Documentary Feature and Best Foreign Language Feature. It makes for something to think about, at least. Plenty more will change next month too, so this is clearly just placeholder stuff for the most part. Enjoy it though, obviously.
Here now are my most up to date Academy Award predictions:
BEST PICTURE
1. La La Land
2. Silence
3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
4. Manchester by the Sea
5. Loving
6. The Birth of a Nation
7. Live by Night
8. Lion
9. Passengers
10. Nocturnal Animals
Next in line: 11. Arrival 12. War Machine 13. Fences 14. The Light Between Oceans 15. Café Society 16. Collateral Beauty 17. The Founder 18. Bleed for This 19. Sully 20. The Lost City of Z 21. Allied 22. A United Kingdom 23. Rules Don’t Apply 24. Snowden 25. Hands of Stone
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Damien Chazelle – La La Land
2. Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
3, Ang Lee – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
4. Martin Scorsese – Silence
5. Ben Affleck – Live by Night
Next in line: 6. Jeff Nichols – Loving 7. Nate Parker – The Birth of a Nation 8. Morten Tyldum – Passengers 9. Tom […]

Hollywood Contenders: Updated Academy Award predictions for June

Guess what time it is? That’s right ladies and gentlemen, time for a new set of Oscar predictions to share with you all. We’re in the middle of June, coming up quickly on the end of the first half of 2016 and the start of the second half, so a transitional period is upon us. The type of title put out into theaters is going to change, so expect these predictions to change as well, moving on from many of the first half films and doubling down on fall and winter releases. That’s just the way it is, especially with as weak a half as we’ve had, in terms of awards friendly movies. For the Academy, they won’t really be considering the early year releases, at least this year. Maybe next year, but for now, it’s the ones hitting in July and beyond that are worth paying attention to…
What you’ll see this time around is a title change (Story of Your Life has become Arrival), along with some various tinkering. Mainly, I’m honing in on La La Land as perhaps the big player that’s sight unseen at the current moment. There’s also the debut of Fences within my predictions, as well as some upward mobility for things such as Nocturnal Animals. Remember, this is purely guesswork still, but they seem like potential contenders to me, at least right now, here in June. A lot can and will change, but this is just how I currently see the race unfolding. Enjoy though, as it’s still a ton of fun to build these lists.

Here now are my updated Academy Award predictions:
BEST PICTURE
1. La La Land
2. Silence
3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
4. Manchester by the Sea
5. Loving
6. The Birth of a Nation
7. Lion
8. The Light Between Oceans
9. Passengers
10. Nocturnal Animals
Next in line: 11. Arrival 12. War Machine 13. Fences 14. Sully 15. Café Society 16. Collateral Beauty 17. The Founder 18. A United Kingdom 19. The Zookeeper’s Wife 20. Allied 21. The Lost City of Z 22. LBJ 23. The Circle 24. Rules Don’t Apply 25. Snowden
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Damien Chazelle – La La Land
2. Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
3, Ang Lee – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
4. Martin Scorsese – Silence
5. Nate Parker – The Birth of a Nation
Next in line: 6. Jeff Nichols – Loving 7. Derek Cianfrance – The Light Between Oceans 8. Morten Tyldum – Passengers 9. Tom […]

HOLLYWOOD CONTENDERS: Updated Oscar predictions for May

With the 2016 Cannes Film Festival well underway, now’s the perfect time to give you a new look at Oscar predictions folks! Why, you may ask? Well, having seen two the movies playing at Cannes, it only seems apt. One is Money Monster, which isn’t really of note here, but the other is Woody Allen’s Café Society, which I was lucky enough to see stateside. That one could be a player, and obviously it’s floating around my head as I update these predictions. Read on to see how I think it might go for Allen’s latest, along with all of the other contenders we currently know about!
What you’ll see below reflects basically how I currently see the race. The only information I’m working off of that everyone else might not have is having seen Café Society. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk got a very promising Trailer yesterday as well, but that’s nothing exclusive and I’ll be tackling that in a specific post on Monday. As for Woody’s flick, I think it’s one of his recent best and definitely has a chance to make waves with Oscar. It’s got a lot in common with Midnight in Paris, which should prove to be rather promising for Allen and company. It’s not out until July, so no one can say just yet, but I suspect it won’t be easily dismissed. Other than that, it’s more or less the same contenders here, just tinkered with to try and get an early feel for the season to come…

Here now are my current early Oscar predictions, at least for the moment here in the middle of May:
BEST PICTURE
1. Manchester by the Sea
2. Silence
3. La La Land
4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
5. Loving
6. The Birth of a Nation
7. Lion
8. The Light Between Oceans
9. Passengers
10. Café Society
Next in line: 11. War Machine 12. The Founder 13. Sully 14. Story of Your Life 15. A United Kingdom 16. Collateral Beauty 17. Snowden 18. Nocturnal Animals 19. The Zookeeper’s Wife 20. Allied 21. The Lost City of Z 22. The Nice Guys 23. LBJ 24. The Circle 25. Everybody Wants Some
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
2. Martin Scorsese – Silence
3. Damien Chazelle – La La Land
4. Jeff Nichols – Loving
5. Nate Parker – The Birth of a Nation
Next in line: 6. Ang Lee – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk 7. Derek Cianfrance – The Light Between Oceans […]

The best moments from the 88th Academy Awards

Now that a little bit of time has been removed from the actual ceremony, I think it’s only right to look back on the 88th Academy Awards for a moment. Yes, I’m going to be looking at the positives of the event, as opposed to the negatives. We can always pick out what we don’t like about something, but today is a day for positivity. We follow the awards season, all the way up to Oscar night, because we enjoy it, so it’s prudent to focus on that. There will never be a perfect Academy Award telecast, but each and every single year we see things that make us laugh, smile, or just feel good about film. Below you will see the five things that I took away from the show in the most positive light. Your choices might be different, obviously, but these are mine. I suspect you’ll all agree with some, but that’s neither here nor there. Anyway, enjoy…
Here are the five best moments from the Oscar ceremony:
5. Chris Rock’s opening monologue – All eyes were on Rock as he opened the show. We knew he would address the racial controversy about the acting lineups, and while he touched on that pretty directly, he also just came up with an effective and entertaining monologue. Rock is a very solid host and I hope we see him do this again soon. He wasn’t the comedy highlight of the evening, but he wasn’t far off, that’s for sure. Rock knew what he needed to do and did it quite well.
4. Ex Machina winning Best Visual Effects – One of the biggest upsets I’ve ever seen, the presumed least likely winner in the Visual Effects category wound up taking the prize. It wouldn’t have been my personal choice, but I loved seeing this sort of shock happen. Moreover, Ex Machina is, without question, one of the most unique winners to date here, so that’s a real plus as well. I’m not sure what it means for the future of the category, but in general I’m all for surprise upsets.
3. Leonardo DiCaprio’s speech after winning Best Actor – At long last, folks got to see DiCaprio win an Oscar. Not only that, but they got to see him give a powerful speech at the Academy Awards, centered around climate change. Politics and the Oscars can be an odd mix, but DiCaprio made […]

The 88th Academy Awards offered up surprise after surprise

Wow. That’s about as appropriate a one word reaction to what happened last night as anything else. After a full year basically of predictions, guessing, analysis, and precursors, it all came down to waiting for Morgan Freeman to announce the Best Picture winner at the 88th Oscars. Recent events had made us initially think it would be The Big Short, then The Revenant, but go figure, it turned out to be the original frontrunner all along, Spotlight. The Academy saved their biggest shocker for last, but it was hardly the only one. Yes, it was a night filled with unexpected events, which thrills a prognosticator like myself. It’s easy to get bored, but you really couldn’t get bored with this one. It was one for the ages!
It was an Academy Award ceremony filled with surprises, that’s for sure. In addition to Spotlight upsetting The Revenant in Picture, we saw Mark Rylance upset Sylvester Stallone in Best Supporting Actor, Mad Max: Fury Road nearly sweep the technical categories, and Ex Machina pull off an absolute stunner in Best Visual Effects. Of course, there were coronations as well, including Leonardo DiCaprio finally getting his Oscar, winning Best Actor for The Revenant. That film also saw Alejandro G. Iñárritu expectedly take Best Director, while Brie Larson surprised no one with her Best Actress win for Room. Of the Best Picture nominees, only Brooklyn and The Martian went home empty handed, so the love was more or less spread out here as well. I only went 16/24 with my predictions this time around, but considering how it was almost impossible to ace these, along with my prediction of Spectre winning Best Original Song coming true, I can deal with that low total. Overall, it was a solid group of winners, but what will be spoken of for some time is how the show offered up surprises that not all of the pundits saw coming…

Here you go. These are the results of the 88th annual Oscars:
Best Picture
“The Big Short”
“Bridge of Spies”
“Brooklyn”
“Mad Max: Fury Road”
“The Martian”
“The Revenant”
“Room”
“Spotlight” (WINNER)
Best Actor
Bryan Cranston, “Trumbo”
Matt Damon, “The Martian”
Leonardo DiCaprio, “The Revenant” (WINNER)
Michael Fassbender, “Steve Jobs”
Eddie Redmayne, “The Danish Girl”
Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, “Carol”
Brie Larson, “Room” (WINNER)
Jennifer Lawrence, “Joy”
Charlotte Rampling, “45 Years”
Saoirse Ronan, “Brooklyn”
Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, “The Big Short”
Tom Hardy, “The Revenant”
Mark Ruffalo, “Spotlight”
Mark Rylance, “Bridge of Spies” (WINNER)
Sylvester Stallone, “Creed”
Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, “The Hateful Eight”
Rooney Mara, “Carol”
Rachel McAdams, […]

A final set of Oscar predictions

This is it, ladies and gentlemen, the moment of truth for a prognosticator. Almost a full year of musing on the Academy Award race has led here. We’re now just a few days out from the Oscars being held, with a new slate of winners set to enter the record books. As such, this is the last chance to solidify predictions, in advance of Sunday night. After that, it’ll be time to look ahead to the 2016 releases and which of them could be contenders. For now though, I have my final thoughts on the race, before all is revealed, of course. Take a gander now…
What you’ll notice below is that, frankly, not much has changed. Basically, the frontrunners are all set to take the big prizes. Best Picture seems locked up for The Revenant, though there’s still that outside chance of The Big Short swooping in. If you’re looking for races to keep an eye on, it’s obviously Best Supporting Actress as well as the technical ones. The techs are where we’ll see if The Revenant is truly a force with the Academy. You’ll see some last minute tinkering in my predictions, but by and large, it’s what we’ve figured out over the last few updates. Make of that what you will. For me, it just is what it is.
Here you go folks. My final set of Oscar predictions:

BEST PICTURE
1. The Revenant
2. The Big Short
3. Spotlight
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Bridge of Spies
6. The Martian
7. Room
8. Brooklyn
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Alejandro G. Iñárritu – The Revenant
2. Adam McKay – The Big Short
3. George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Tom McCarthy – Spotlight
5. Lenny Abrahamson – Room
BEST ACTOR
1. Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
2. Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
3. Matt Damon – The Martian
4. Bryan Cranston – Trumbo
5. Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl
BEST ACTRESS
1. Brie Larson – Room
2. Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years
3. Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn
4. Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
5. Cate Blanchett – Carol
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Sylvester Stallone – Creed
2. Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
3. Tom Hardy – The Revenant
4. Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight
5. Christian Bale – The Big Short
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
2. Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
3. Rooney Mara – Carol
4. Rachel McAdams – Spotlight
5. Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Spotlight
2. Straight Outta Compton
3. Inside Out
4. Ex Machina
5. Bridge of Spies
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1. The Big Short
2. Room
3. The Martian
4. […]

“The Big Short” vs “The Revenant” vs “Spotlight” in the race for Best Picture

As we get down to the final days until the Academy Awards, it’s obviously still worth focusing in on a few of the races that might still be up in the air, concluding now with the biggest one. Yes, the competition for Best Picture. Depending on how generous you’re feeling at a given moment, this is a three horse race, obviously coming down to either The Big Short, The Revenant, or Spotlight. Below I’ll be discussing the candidacies of all three, as we try to nail down just what is going to happen with Picture on Sunday (yes, we can safely count out Bridge of Spies, Brooklyn, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, and Room from actual contention). Join me now, why don’t you?
The case for The Big Short really centers on preferential balloting. That’s where Adam McKay’s film has a chance to pull the upset. The Producers Guild win shows that much, at least. PGA votes the way Oscar does, so fans of this one can hold out hope in that regard. It’s also a more traditional winner in a way, taking on the issues of our time. Is it a bit more of a comedy than usually wins? Sure, but so was Birdman last year, so it does happen. If you want to look out for a Picture win here, you have to see The Big Short win in Best Film Editing (I don’t think it benefits enough if Mad Max: Fury Road takes it). Anything short of that could be too little, too late. It has a chance, but it’s a small one, honestly. McKay, along with Charles Randolph, will win in Best Adapted Screenplay, so the film won’t go home empty handed.
The Revenant easily makes the strongest case for Picture, without question. It’s the frontrunner, that much is undeniable. The win from the Directors Guild sets Alejandro G Iñárritu up to win Best Director here, which is clearly a big boon. This one also has BAFTA as well as a Golden Globe in its pocket, making for a combination that is historically hard to beat. The one pause for this one as a lock to win is that it hasn’t won in a preferential balloting system, but I don’t know how much of a sway that will hold. We’ll see on Sunday, but if you’re just looking at the numbers, as it were, this is The […]

Updated Academy Award Predictions

Oh boy. Ladies and gentlemen, this is the second to last opportunity for me to figure out what might happen at the Oscars. All of the information is at our fingertips, so it’s just a matter of trying to read the tea leaves as best as possible. On the one hand, I feel like I know more or less what is going to happen at the Academy Awards telecast next Sunday, but on the other, I never trust having confidence this late in the game. A surprise or two is always possible, so that’s something to keep in mind. The odds favor just a solid run by The Revenant, including wins in the three biggest categories, but the film hasn’t quite locked it up yet.
Basically, we’re in a holding pattern here. As I’ll more explicitly say in a piece next week, there’s an argument that one can make in Best Picture for either The Big Short, The Revenant, or Spotlight. I think The Revenant is in the lead, with only a small chance for an upset by The Big Short, but it can happen. Other than that, what you’ll see below is more of the same, basically. A few movies might still have shots to pull ahead at the last minute in the technical categories (see my article yesterday for more on that), but don’t expect these predictions to be too different from my final ones a week from today…
Here now are those penultimate Oscar predictions:
BEST PICTURE
1. The Revenant
2. The Big Short
3. Spotlight
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. Bridge of Spies
6. The Martian
7. Room
8. Brooklyn
BEST DIRECTOR
1. Alejandro G. Iñárritu – The Revenant
2. Adam McKay – The Big Short
3. George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Tom McCarthy – Spotlight
5. Lenny Abrahamson – Room
BEST ACTOR
1. Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
2. Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
3. Matt Damon – The Martian
4. Bryan Cranston – Trumbo
5. Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl
BEST ACTRESS
1. Brie Larson – Room
2. Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett – Carol
4. Jennifer Lawrence – Joy
5. Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1. Sylvester Stallone – Creed
2. Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
3. Tom Hardy – The Revenant
4. Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight
5. Christian Bale – The Big Short
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1. Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
2. Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
3. Rachel McAdams – Spotlight
4. Rooney Mara – Carol
5. Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1. Spotlight
2. Inside Out
3. […]

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