Scotty McCreery likely to win “American Idol”

By Kim Palacios The “American Idol” finale may be three weeks away, but was the competition over before it began? Reliable historical information from the first 9 seasons of the show have accurately predicted frontrunners, and maybe even the winner.

Six weeks ago, Hollywood News published a piece that predicted Scotty McCreery and Lauren Alaina as top finalists in the competition based on the overwhelming success of contestants from the southern U.S.; six eliminations later, it is clear that such a prediction turned out to be right on target.

Current standings show that contestants in underdog categories have systematically been eliminated: women (most recently, Pia Toscana) and performers without a clear or mainstream musical genre (e.g., Casey Abrams, Jacob Lusk, and Paul McDonald). In alignment with the advantage historically enjoyed by men, Intrade predicts Scotty McReery as the winner, with James Durbin and not Lauren Alaina, as a top two finalist.

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