A Mid-October Oscar Predictions Update

Ladies and gentlemen, as I’ve been saying over the past few months…oscar predictions are a rather funny thing. Sometimes you have to just update them all wholesale in order to not be way off the mark/behind the times, while sometimes they only require a relatively small bit of tinkering as to be on the right track and not out on crazy limbs. That’s simply the nature of the beast, one where a single new contender on the horizon can upend the race, one way or another. With only a small amount of Oscar hopefuls still to be seen, we’re again waiting for a new contender to potentially change the landscape (I’m looking at you, American Sniper), now that we’re in a world where Inherent Vice has already unveiled itself and not particularly changed things at all. In any event, it’s time for a new predictions update!

If you look at what I have in this particular update, you’ll see that I’ve made some changes, but not a complete overall. Once again though, a special thing I have for you all is the addition of who I have next in line in the major categories. This will give you a better idea of what the larger landscape looks like. I’ll obviously need to update these all again in a few weeks, particularly after I hopefully see things like Christopher Nolan’s Interstellar, but that’s one step ahead of the game for me. Until then (as well as when the other unseen contenders reveal themselves), the educated guesswork will just have to continue on a little bit longer.

In terms of my winners, I just want to say that I think just about every race is still wide open (give or take Best Supporting Actor) and I refuse to predict a split between Best Picture and Best Director this early in the game, so when I switch one, I have to change the other. As such, you’ll see a handful of new winners throughout the big eight categories. They could just be temporary, but time will tell in that regard. For now, that’s just how I see the race…

Well, enough talk though folks. I know you all just want to see how the predictions have changed, even if only a little bit, so let me oblige you. Here now are my most up to date Academy Award predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. Boyhood
2. The Imitation Game
3. Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
4. American Sniper
5. Whiplash
6. The Theory of Everything
7. Foxcatcher
8. Unbroken
9. Gone Girl
10. Interstellar

Next in line: 11. Fury 12. Inherent Vice 13. Into the Woods 14. Selma 15. A Most Violent Year 16. Mr. Turner 17. Rosewater 18. Wild 19. Nightcrawler 20. Citizenfour

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Richard Linklater – Boyhood
2. Alejandro González Iñárritu – Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Morten Tyldum – The Imitation Game
4. Clint Eastwood – American Sniper
5. Damien Chazelle – Whiplash

Next in line: 6. Christopher Nolan – Interstellar 7. David Fincher – Gone Girl 8. Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher 9. James Marsh – The Theory of Everything 10. Angelina Jolie – Unbroken

BEST ACTOR

1. Bradley Cooper – American Sniper
2. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
3. Michael Keaton – Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
4. Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything
5. Steve Carell – Foxcatcher

Next in line: 6. Bill Murray – St. Vincent 7. Jack O’Connell – Unbroken 8. David Oyelowo – Selma 9. Joaquin Phoenix – Inherent Vice 10. Ben Affleck – Gone Girl

BEST ACTRESS

1. Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything
2. Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
3. Julianne Moore – Still Alice
4. Reese Witherspoon – Wild
5. Shailene Woodley – The Fault in Our Stars

Next in line: 6. Jessica Chastain – A Most Violent Year or The Disappearance of Eleanor Rigby 7. Amy Adams – Big Eyes 8. Hilary Swank – The Homesman 9. Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night 10. Scarlett Johansson – Under the Skin

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. J.K. Simmons – Whiplash
2. Edward Norton – Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher
4. Ethan Hawke – Boyhood
5. Logan Lerman – Fury

Next in line: 6. Josh Brolin – Inherent Vice 7. Tim Roth – Selma 8. Robert Duvall – The Judge 9. Johnny Depp – Into the Woods 10. Adam Sandler – Men, Women & Children

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
2. Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game
3. Emma Stone – Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
4. Meryl Streep – Into the Woods
5. Laura Dern – Wild

Next in line: 6. Katherine Waterston – Inherent Vice 7. Jessica Chastain – Interstellar 8. Carrie Coon – Gone Girl 9. Anna Kendrick – Into the Woods 10. Carmen Ejogo – Selma

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Boyhood
2. Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Whiplash
4. Interstellar
5. Foxcatcher

Next in line: 6. Mr. Turner 7. A Most Violent Year 8. Selma 9. The Grand Budapest Hotel 10. Begin Again

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Gone Girl
2. The Imitation Game
3. American Sniper
4. The Theory of Everything
5. The Fault in Our Stars

Next in line: 6. Inherent Vice 7. Unbroken 8. Rosewater 9. Men, Women & Children 10. Wild

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. The Lego Movie
2. How to Train Your Dragon 2
3. The Boxtrolls
4. Big Hero 6
5. The Tale of Princess Kaguya

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Interstellar
2. Unbroken
3. Into the Woods
4. The Grand Budapest Hotel
5. Mr. Turner

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Gone Girl
2. Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Interstellar
4. Unbroken
5. Foxcatcher

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Exodus: Gods and Kings
2. Into the Woods
3. Unbroken
4. Fury
5. Noah

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Gone Girl
2. Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Boyhood
4. The Imitation Game
5. Interstellar

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Foxcatcher
2. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
3. Tusk

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Interstellar
2. Into the Woods
3. Godzilla
4. Fury
5. Transformers: Age of Extinction

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Interstellar
2. Into the Woods
3. Godzilla
4. Exodus: Gods and Kings
5. Fury

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Interstellar
2. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
3. Guardians of the Galaxy
4. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies
5. Snowpiercer

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Gone Girl
2. The Imitation Game
3. Interstellar
4. The Theory of Everything
5. Unbroken

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Begin Again
2. The Lego Movie
3. Muppets Most Wanted
4. The Fault in Our Stars
5. Joe

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Citizenfour
2. Life Itself
3. Red Army
4. The Unknown Known
5. Alive Inside

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Wild Tales
2. Mommy
3. Two Days, One Night
4. Ida
5. Leviathan

Next month I’ll have some more brand new predictions up, so stay tuned as usual for those!