A Post Oscar Nomination Prediction Update

A full day later, it’s still hard to completely make sense of the Academy Award nominations that went down yesterday morning. Oscar voters nominated who and what they wanted to, seemingly without much of the traditional rhyme and reason that they utilize. As such, one might be tempted to say that the field is wide open for wins all over the place. However, it seems like almost all of the frontrunners still stand in their pole positions, so it’s more a matter of figuring out where we have categories with upward mobility. As such, this updated set of predictions as well as the ones still to come, might not change too much, but the instances of change that they feature will be all the more important. I’ll keep my commentary short, but below I do have some thoughts to share on the big eight categories.

Right now, I have Boyhood way out in front in the Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Supporting Actress categories. I also have it winning Best Original Screenplay and Best Film Editing, though those are less surefire wins. Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay will see some competition from Birdman and The Grand Budapest Hotel, so it’s possible that in the Screenplay category one of those players could sneak by Richard Linklater’s film. Acting wise, it’s probably a two horse race in Best Actor between Michael Keaton (Birdman) and Eddie Redmayne (The Theory of Everything), but watch out for Bradley Cooper (American Sniper), who will look to surge in this second phase. Best Actress is a lock for Julianne Moore (Still Alice), while Best Supporting Actor is as well for J.K. Simmons (Whiplash). The other category up in the air is Best Adapted Screenplay, since presumed frontrunner Gone Girl got snubbed. My brain defaults to The Imitation Game, but watch out for Whiplash here. Voters are clearly very fond of that one.

Anyway, there will be plenty more talk still to come for me. Here now is my first crack at predicting the winners of this year’s Academy Awards:

BEST PICTURE

1. Boyhood
2. Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. The Imitation Game
5. American Sniper
6. The Theory of Everything
7. Selma
8. Whiplash

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Richard Linklater – Boyhood
2. Alejandro González Iñárritu – Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Wes Anderson – The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Morten Tyldum – The Imitation Game
5. Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher

BEST ACTOR

1. Michael Keaton – Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
2. Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything
3. Bradley Cooper – American Sniper
4. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
5. Steve Carell – Foxcatcher

BEST ACTRESS

1. Julianne Moore – Still Alice
2. Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything
3. Reese Witherspoon – Wild
4. Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
5. Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. J.K. Simmons – Whiplash
2. Edward Norton – Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Ethan Hawke – Boyhood
4. Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher
5. Robert Duvall – The Judge

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
2. Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game
3. Emma Stone – Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
4. Meryl Streep – Into the Woods
5. Laura Dern – Wild

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Boyhood
2. Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Foxcatcher
5. Nightcrawler

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Imitation Game
2. Whiplash
3. The Theory of Everything
4. American Sniper
5. Inherent Vice

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Big Hero 6
2. How to Train Your Dragon 2
3. The Boxtrolls
4. The Tale of Princess Kaguya
5. Song of the Sea

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Mr. Turner
3. Into the Woods
4. The Imitation Game
5. Interstellar

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
2. Unbroken
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Mr. Turner
5. Ida

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Into the Woods
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. Big Eyes
4. Maleficent
5. Inherent Vice

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Boyhood
2. American Sniper
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. The Imitation Game
5. Whiplash

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Foxcatcher
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. Guardians of the Galaxy

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. American Sniper
2. Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Interstellar
4. Whiplash
5. Unbroken

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. American Sniper
2. Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Interstellar
4. Unbroken
5. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Interstellar
2. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
3. Guardians of the Galaxy
4. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
5. X-Men: Days of Future Past

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. The Theory of Everything
2. Interstellar
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. The Imitation Game
5. Mr. Turner

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Selma – Glory
2. Begin Again – Lost Stars
3. The Lego Movie – Everything Is Awesome
4. Glen Campbell…I’ll Be Me – I’m Not Gonna Miss You
5. Beyond the Lights – Grateful

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Citizenfour
2. Last Days in Vietnam
3. Virunga
4. Finding Vivian Maie
5. The Salt of the Earth

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Ida
2. Wild Tales
3. Leviathan
4. Timbuktu
5. Tangerines

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Feast
2. The Dam Keeper
3. A Single Life
4. The Bigger Picture
5. Me and My Moulton

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
2. Joanna
3. White Earth
4. The Reaper
5. Our Curse

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. The Phone Call
2. Aya
3. Parvaneh
4. Boogaloo and Graham
5. Butter Lamp (La Lampe Au Beurre De Yak)

Stay tuned for an update to my predictions at the end of the month/beginning of next month at the latest…perhaps even sooner!