A Mid February Oscar predictions update

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We’ve come to the penultimate update to my predictions folks. With Academy Award voting going on hot and heavy, it’s really time to buckle down and try to work out some last minute Oscar hunches before final predictions next week, right? Much like I said last week, it’s pretty serious crunch time here, so once again aside from a guild announcement tomorrow (the Writers Guild of America awards) there won’t be any new information at all to go on, and there might not even be much this weekend, depending on what the folks at the WGA wind up doing with their two prizes. Essentially, at the end of the road. I’ve tried out some small changes and a few big ones, but the feel of the show remains pretty similar. The big question is still how Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Original Screenplay will go, and if Birdman or Boyhood will sweep those…plus the potential for Original Screenplay to wind up in the hands of The Grand Budapest Hotel. Geez, I’m sweating already.

As you can see below, I’ve once again opted to go with Birdman in the big three spots, giving it Picture, Director, and Original Screenplay wins. I definitely feel like Boyhood will win at least one of those, with The Grand Budapest Hotel even being a threat in the Screenplay category. The other notable changes I’ve made surround Whiplash, which I have doing way better than I think most expect it to, including pulling off a Best Adapted Screenplay upset win and a Best Film Editing surprise victory as well. That would give it four wins, second only to Birdman, which I have taking home five statues right now. This all can and likely will change more before Oscar night, so take it as still a work in progress. That being said, it’s the second to last crack that I have at it, so I’m making my speculating count…

Without any further delay, here now are my up to date Academy Award predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
2. Boyhood
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. The Imitation Game
5. Whiplash
6. American Sniper
7. The Theory of Everything
8. Selma

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Alejandro González Iñárritu – Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
2. Richard Linklater – Boyhood
3. Wes Anderson – The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. Morten Tyldum – The Imitation Game
5. Bennett Miller – Foxcatcher

BEST ACTOR

1. Eddie Redmayne – The Theory of Everything
2. Michael Keaton – Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Bradley Cooper – American Sniper
4. Benedict Cumberbatch – The Imitation Game
5. Steve Carell – Foxcatcher

BEST ACTRESS

1. Julianne Moore – Still Alice
2. Felicity Jones – The Theory of Everything
3. Reese Witherspoon – Wild
4. Rosamund Pike – Gone Girl
5. Marion Cotillard – Two Days, One Night

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. J.K. Simmons – Whiplash
2. Ethan Hawke – Boyhood
3. Edward Norton – Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
4. Mark Ruffalo – Foxcatcher
5. Robert Duvall – The Judge

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Patricia Arquette – Boyhood
2. Emma Stone – Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. Keira Knightley – The Imitation Game
4. Laura Dern – Wild
5. Meryl Streep – Into the Woods

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. Boyhood
4. Foxcatcher
5. Nightcrawler

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. Whiplash
2. The Imitation Game
3. The Theory of Everything
4. American Sniper
5. Inherent Vice

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. How to Train Your Dragon 2
2. Big Hero 6
3. The Boxtrolls
4. The Tale of Princess Kaguya
5. Song of the Sea

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Into the Woods
3. Interstellar
4. Mr. Turner
5. The Imitation Game

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. Unbroken
4. Mr. Turner
5. Ida

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Into the Woods
3. Mr. Turner
4. Maleficent
5. Inherent Vice

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Whiplash
2. Boyhood
3. The Grand Budapest Hotel
4. American Sniper
5. The Imitation Game

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. The Grand Budapest Hotel
2. Guardians of the Galaxy
3. Foxcatcher

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Whiplash
2. Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
3. American Sniper
4. Interstellar
5. Unbroken

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Birdman or The Unexpected Virtue of Ignorance
2. American Sniper
3. Interstellar
4. Unbroken
5. The Hobbit: The Battle of the Five Armies

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Dawn of the Planet of the Apes
2. Interstellar
3. Guardians of the Galaxy
4. Captain America: The Winter Soldier
5. X-Men: Days of Future Past

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. The Theory of Everything
2. The Grand Budapest Hotel
3. Interstellar
4. The Imitation Game
5. Mr. Turner

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. Selma – Glory
2. Begin Again – Lost Stars
3. The Lego Movie – Everything Is Awesome
4. Glen Campbell…I’ll Be Me – I’m Not Gonna Miss You
5. Beyond the Lights – Grateful

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Citizenfour
2. Last Days in Vietnam
3. Finding Vivian Maier
4. Virunga
5. The Salt of the Earth

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Ida
2. Leviathan
3. Wild Tales
4. Timbuktu
5. Tangerines

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Feast
2. The Dam Keeper
3. The Bigger Picture
4. Me and My Moulton
5. A Single Life

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. Crisis Hotline: Veterans Press 1
2. Joanna
3. Our Curse
4. White Earth
5. The Reaper

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. The Phone Call
2. Boogaloo and Graham
3. Aya
4. Parvaneh
5. Butter Lamp (La Lampe Au Beurre De Yak)

Stay tuned for one final update to my Oscar predictions next week!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He contributes to several other film-related websites and is a member of the Broadcast Film Critics Association.

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