Hollywood Contenders: Potential nomination morning snubs

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As much as we tend to focus on who and what might get in on Oscar nomination morning, there’s also another factor to consider…who and what might wind up missing. Yes, for all but the most locked in of contenders, there’s the chance that a snub might be coming their way on the big day. Every single year, there’s always at least one, be it Ben Affleck in Best Director for Argo, John Hawkes in Best Actor for The Sessions, or The Lego Movie in Best Animated Feature, you can all but bank on something surprising, if not outright shocking, happening. Below you’ll see my best attempt at guessing what the shock might be this time around…

Here now is five (or technically six, as you’ll see below) instance of potentially surprising snubs that could happen on nomination morning:

Matt Damon in Best Actor – For a moment it seemed like Damon was potentially going to emerge as the frontrunner in Actor for The Martian, but despite a strong shot at the Golden Globe win, he’s still in line to possibly be one of the casualties on the big morning. I don’t think it’s especially likely, but it’s something to certainly consider. We’re still not sure just how big a contender the film is…

86th Annual Academy Awards - Arrivals
Roger Deakins in Best Cinematography – This would be a cruel crime, but with Sicario assured of nothing right now, it’s hard to consider Deakins a full on lock. I don’t think this is likely at all, but it’s a possibility, if nothing else. It pains me to even think about it, but think I must. Is this probably going to happen? No. Is it worth worrying about still? Sure.

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Rooney Mara and/or Alicia Vikander miss in both Best Actress as well as Best Supporting Actress – This is the one to pay attention to, frankly. Right now, I think Mara and Vikander are the frontrunners in Supporting Actress (for Carol and The Danish Girl, respectively), but both are also up in Actress here and there. Category confusion could abound, with one or both winding up missing out all together. Mara has Cate Blanchett in Actress to split other votes, while Vikander also has her performance in Ex Machina to complicate Supporting Actress. I still have them both getting in, but they have the possibility of missing certainly on the table.

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George Miller in Best Director – I never fully believed that this citation was a lock anyway, so if Miller winds up falling short in Director for Mad Max: Fury Road, I won’t be shocked at all. Still, the season has increased his chances drastically, so I could see folks being surprised if he misses. Right now, I’n looking to the DGA nominations to see just how strong he is. If he gets in there, a miss here would be far more unexpected, so keep that in mind…

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Eddie Redmayne in Best Actor – This is the snub that I think could very well wind up happening. Redmayne won in Actor last year for The Theory of Everything, so while he’s not a threat to win in the category again for The Danish Girl, it’s long been expected that he’d be nominated again. Just enough people might decide to back a new horse though, so he’s hardly a sure thing. It’s not necessarily a likely scenario, but if I had to go out on a limb for one, this is the one that I’d choose. We’ll just have to sit tight and see how the rest of the season evolves from here.

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Stay tuned to see if any of these snubs wind up coming to pass on the big morning!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He contributes to several other film-related websites and is a member of the Broadcast Film Critics Association.

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