Figuring out what happens next after yesterday’s Oscar nominations

spotlight michael keaton mark ruffalo
Well now, after yesterday’s Academy Award nominations announcement, what next? Essentially, now it’s time to try and figure out who and what is in line to win the statues. Before that, however, it does pay to take a look at just what went down a little over 24 hours ago. By seeing what did the best/better than/worse than expected, we might be able to gain some clues about what Oscar voters were thinking. It’s obviously impossible to know for sure right now what the Academy is planning to do, but we need to start somewhere, right? Right. So, here goes nothing as we start from scratch once again…

the martian matt damon
The way I see it, The Big Short, Mad Max: Fury Road, The Martian, The Revenant, and Spotlight are the films in the pole position still, with Spotlight probably remaining the one to beat. Of course, The Revenant led the nominations yesterday with 12, followed by Mad Max: Fury Road at ten, The Martian at seven, Bridge of Spies, Carol, and Spotlight at six, as well as The Big Short and Star Wars: The Force Awakens at five. The Martian is obviously hurt by the snub of Ridley Scott in Best Director, while you can argue that The Revenant missing in Best Adapted Screenplay is damaging to its chances. The Big Short probably could have used Steve Carell in Best Actor as a show of power, while Mad Max: Fury Road, outside of a Screenplay citation, pretty much exceeded expectations. As such, we’re left with Spotlight, which hit everywhere that it needed to and as a bonus, wound up seeming to have done better, due to the buzz that it might get shut out in the acting categories. It’s still very early, but keep those things in mind as you think about what has the best chances of winning Oscars next month.

mad max fury road
In the weeks to come, you’ll be seeing plenty of updates to my predictions, but I wanted to start things off with a new set, seeing as it’s Friday and all. Below is what I think will happen in February at the Academy Awards, highlighted by Spotlight still winning in its three biggest categories. The main change? Going with Sylvester Stallone for Creed in Best Supporting Actor, while I seem to be hitting on my early hunch that Rooney Mara for Carol could win Best Supporting Actress. Every category has been updated, obviously, so give it a look and sit tight for plenty more analysis still to come next week!

The Revenant Leo DiCaprio
Here’s my first crack at post nomination predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. Spotlight
2. The Revenant
3. The Big Short
4. The Martian
5. Mad Max: Fury Road
6. Room
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Brooklyn

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Tom McCarthy – Spotlight
2. George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Alejandro G. Iñárritu – The Revenant
4. Adam McKay – The Big Short
5. Lenny Abrahamson – Room

BEST ACTOR

1. Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
2. Matt Damon – The Martian
3. Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
4. Bryan Cranston – Trumbo
5. Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl

BEST ACTRESS

1. Brie Larson – Room
2. Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn
3. Cate Blanchett – Carol
4. Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years
5. Jennifer Lawrence – Joy

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Sylvester Stallone – Creed
2. Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
3. Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight
4. Christian Bale – The Big Short
5. Tom Hardy – The Revenant

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Rooney Mara – Carol
2. Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
3. Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
5. Rachel McAdams – Spotlight

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Spotlight
2. Ex Machina
3. Bridge of Spies
4. Inside Out
5. Straight Outta Compton

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Big Short
2. The Martian
3. Room
4. Carol
5. Brooklyn

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Inside Out
2. Anomalisa
3. Shaun the Sheep Movie
4. When Marnie Was There
5. Boy and the World

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Martian
3. The Danish Girl
4. Bridge of Spies
5. The Revenant

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. The Revenant
2. Sicario
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Carol
5. The Hateful Eight

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Carol
2. The Danish Girl
3. The Revenant
4. Cinderella
5. Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST FILM EDITING

1. Spotlight
2. The Big Short
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. The Revenant
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. The Revenant
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. The Martian
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. The Revenant
5. Bridge of Spies

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. The Martian
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Sicario
5. The Revenant

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. The Martian
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. The Revenant
5. Ex Machina

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. The Hateful Eight
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. Carol
4. Sicario
5. Bridge of Spies

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. The Hunting Ground (Til It Happens to You)
2. Youth (Simple Song #3)
3. Spectre (Writing’s on the Wall)
4. Racing Extinction (Manta Ray)
5. Fifty Shades of Grey (Earned It)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Amy
2. The Look of Silence
3. Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom
4. Cartel Land
5. What Happened, Miss Simone?

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Son of Saul
2. Mustang
3. A War
4. Theeb
5. Embrace of the Serpent

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Sanjay’s Super Team
2. World of Tomorrow
3. Bear Story
4. We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
5. Prologue

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. Body Team 12
2. Claude Lanzmann: Specters of the Shoah
3. Last Day of Freedom
4. Chau, Beyond the Lines
5. A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Ave Maria
2. Day One
3. Shok
4. Stutterer
5. Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)

Christian Bale The BIG Short
Stay tuned for more Academy Award predictions next week!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He contributes to several other film-related websites and is a member of the Broadcast Film Critics Association.

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