“Sorry To Bother You” – Boots Riley, Lakeith Stanfield, and Tessa Thompson: Hollywood Film Tribute                Box Office Report for January 18-20                Producers Guild Award Goes To "Green Book"                “A Quiet Place” – Emily Blunt and John Krasinski: Hollywood Film Tribute                "Fyre: The Greatest Party That Never Happened" Is A Fascinating Documentary About A Fascinating Disaster                Final Academy Award Predictions Before The Nominees Are Announced                "The Standoff At Sparrow Creek" Is A Claustrophobic And Compelling Mystery                Less Than Acceptable Pacing Dooms "An Acceptable Loss"                “Ben Is Back” – Lucas Hedges, Peter Hedges, and Julia Roberts: Hollywood Film Tribute                "All These Small Moments" Contains A Big Supporting Turn From Harley Quinn Smith                Trailer for "Spider-Man: Far From Home" Sends Peter Parker On An International Adventure!                M. Night Shyamalan Can't Find The Clarity In "Glass"                "Adult Life Skills" Is A Charmingly Quirky Comedy                Oscar Ballots Are Due: Which Films Are Most Likely To Lead The Academy Award Nominations This Year?                Do the Golden Globes and the Oscars act like mobsters?        

Updated Academy Award and Directors Guild Predictions

the big short Steve Carel Ryan Gossling
Folks, I’m basically tearing my hair out trying to decide if I should predict The Big Short or Spotlight to win Best Picture at the Oscars. Yup, it must be Friday and time for a new set of Academy Award predictions. As has been the case for the last few weeks as well, there’s also a guild award being given out this weekend to help/complicate matters. This time around, it’s the Directors Guild of America (or DGA) set to honor a contender, though I’d argue that it’s less of a Best Picture barometer than the other ones have been, but more on that below. You’ll see my DGA thoughts as well as my updated predictions today, and they pretty much tie into each other. As such, I suspect there will be changes next week, one way or the other. In the meantime, here goes nothing…

First off, DGA is mainly useful this year in determining if there is likely to be a split between Picture and Director at the Oscars. If Adam McKay for The Big Short or Tom McCarthy for Spotlight wins this prize, they seem likely to do so with the Academy as well. If George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road emerges victorious with the guild, that could lock him up as the favorite, at least giving the thought of a split some credence. Personally, I never predict a split if I can help it and at least require DGA to give us a likely split, so that could wind up being the case here. Alejandro G. Iñárritu for The Revenant or Ridley Scott for The Martian seem like long shots, so it’s a three horse race with DGA, just like with Oscar (where Lenny Abrahamson for Room substituted for Scott). I’m going with McKay because I think his film is still the favorite with the Academy, but I do think a Miller upset is highly likely. If McCarthy pulls it out though…Spotlight is back in the driver’s seat.

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Keeping all of that in mind, this is how I see the Directors Guild Award going:

Prediction – Adam McKay
Alternate – George Miller
Dark Horse – Tom McCarthy
Shocker – Alejandro G. Iñárritu

Now, with the Academy Awards, I more or less am taking that DGA pick into consideration here, or perhaps it’s these predictions influencing my DGA pick? Well, it’s a mix, and despite Spotlight having a SAG win on its mantle, I’m sticking with The Big Short as the frontrunner in Picture due to that PGA win looming so large. It’s a much closer race now, to be sure, but I have to think that between that win and the political climate, McKay’s movie has the leg up. Either film could take it still, that’s for sure, and as you all know, I adore Spotlight, so I’m hardly calling it over, or hoping it’s that way either. I just can’t ignore the facts that favor The Big Short. Time will tell if I’m right or wrong here…

Alright. Let’s do this. Here now are my updated Oscar predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. The Big Short
2. Spotlight
3. The Revenant
4. Mad Max: Fury Road
5. The Martian
6. Room
7. Bridge of Spies
8. Brooklyn

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Adam McKay – The Big Short
2. Tom McCarthy – Spotlight
3. George Miller – Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Alejandro G. Iñárritu – The Revenant
5. Lenny Abrahamson – Room

BEST ACTOR

1. Leonardo DiCaprio – The Revenant
2. Matt Damon – The Martian
3. Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs
4. Bryan Cranston – Trumbo
5. Eddie Redmayne – The Danish Girl

BEST ACTRESS

1. Brie Larson – Room
2. Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn
3. Charlotte Rampling – 45 Years
4. Cate Blanchett – Carol
5. Jennifer Lawrence – Joy

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Sylvester Stallone – Creed
2. Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies
3. Christian Bale – The Big Short
4. Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight
5. Tom Hardy – The Revenant

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl
2. Kate Winslet – Steve Jobs
3. Rooney Mara – Carol
4. Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight
5. Rachel McAdams – Spotlight

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Spotlight
2. Inside Out
3. Ex Machina
4. Bridge of Spies
5. Straight Outta Compton

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Big Short
2. The Martian
3. Room
4. Brooklyn
5. Carol

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Inside Out
2. Anomalisa
3. Shaun the Sheep Movie
4. When Marnie Was There
5. Boy and the World

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Martian
3. The Danish Girl
4. Bridge of Spies
5. The Revenant

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. The Revenant
2. Sicario
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Carol
5. The Hateful Eight

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Carol
2. The Danish Girl
3. The Revenant
4. Cinderella
5. Mad Max: Fury Road

BEST FILM EDITING

1. The Big Short
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. Spotlight
4. The Revenant
5. Star Wars: The Force Awakens

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Mad Max: Fury Road
2. The Revenant
3. The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out the Window and Disappeared

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. The Martian
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. The Revenant
5. Bridge of Spies

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. The Martian
3. Mad Max: Fury Road
4. Sicario
5. The Revenant

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
2. Mad Max: Fury Road
3. The Martian
4. The Revenant
5. Ex Machina

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. The Hateful Eight
2. Star Wars: The Force Awakens
3. Carol
4. Sicario
5. Bridge of Spies

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. The Hunting Ground (Til It Happens to You)
2. Youth (Simple Song #3)
3. Spectre (Writing’s on the Wall)
4. Racing Extinction (Manta Ray)
5. Fifty Shades of Grey (Earned It)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. Amy
2. The Look of Silence
3. Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom
4. Cartel Land
5. What Happened, Miss Simone?

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Son of Saul
2. Mustang
3. A War
4. Theeb
5. Embrace of the Serpent

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1. Sanjay’s Super Team
2. World of Tomorrow
3. Bear Story
4. We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
5. Prologue

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1. Body Team 12
2. Claude Lanzmann: Specters of the Shoah
3. Last Day of Freedom
4. Chau, Beyond the Lines
5. A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. Ave Maria
2. Day One
3. Shok
4. Stutterer
5. Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)

spotlight michael keaton mark ruffalo
As always, stay tuned for an update to these predictions next week, with next week especially looking to be very different from this week!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He also contributes to several other film-related websites.

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