Year in Advance Oscar predictions

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If it’s Friday, it must be time for updated predictions, right? I know, the Academy Awards were less than a week ago, but year in advance predictions wait for no man, so here I am! Much like last year, I’m hopping on board with 2016 release predictions right after the Oscars are over, and just so you know, I’ve been tinkering with these for a few weeks now. Will they turn out to be even remotely accurate? Who knows, but as we saw last year, I was right about a number of films ahead of time, so this is worth paying attention to. The movies are basically all unseen, but that won’t be the case for long. As such, consider this an early bit of pre awards season homework. Take a gander below!

What you’ll see in this initial set of predictions is that I’ve chosen to back a few specific horses. Namely, Damien Chazelle’s modern musical La La Land, Ang Lee’s war drama of sorts Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk, Kenneth Lonergan’s character study Manchester by the Sea, and Martin Scorsese’s passion project Silence. They’re hardly the only major contenders, but I see those four more or less representing a cross section of Academy Award hopefuls at this early juncture. They should contend across the board, as you’ll see when you scope out the predictions that I’ve settled on. They’ll be updated before long, but as of today, they’re how I feel about the upcoming year in film…

Here now is my first set of Oscar predictions for the awards season to come:

BEST PICTURE

1. Manchester by the Sea
2. Silence
3. La La Land
4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
5. The Light Between Oceans
6. Jackie
7. The Birth of a Nation
8. Lion
9. The Founder
10. Passengers

Next in line: 11. Sully 12. Story of Your Life 13. Collateral Beauty 14. War Machine 15. A United Kingdom 16. The Zookeeper’s Wife 17. Snowden 18. Nocturnal Animals 19. 20th Century Women 20. Loving 21. The Lost City of Z 22. LBJ 23. The Circle 24. Demolition 25. The BFG

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
2. Martin Scorsese – Silence
3. Damien Chazelle – La La Land
4. Ang Lee – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
5. Derek Cianfrance – The Light Between Oceans

Next in line: 6. Nate Parker – The Birth of a Nation 7. Pablo Larraín – Jackie 8. Clint Eastwood – Sully 9. John Lee Hancock – The Founder 10. Morten Tyldum – Passengers

BEST ACTOR

1. Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
2. Ryan Gosling – La La Land (or The Nice Guys)
3. Michael Keaton – The Founder
4. Will Smith – Collateral Beauty
5. Michael Fassbender – The Light Between Oceans

Next in line: 6. Tom Hanks – Sully 7. Andrew Garfield – Silence 8. Chris Pratt – Passengers 9. Joseph Gordon-Levitt – Snowden 10. Dev Patel – Lion

BEST ACTRESS

1. Amy Adams – Nocturnal Animals (or Story of Your Life)
2. Emma Stone – La La Land
3. Jennifer Lawrence – Passengers
4. Ruth Negga – Loving
5. Natalie Portman – Jackie

Next in line: 6. Jessica Chastain – The Zookeeper’s Wife 7. Emily Blunt – The Girl on the Train 8. Alicia Vikander – The Light Between Oceans 9. Emma Watson – The Circle 10. Rosamund Pike – A United Kingdom

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Liam Neeson – Silence
2. Steve Martin – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Peter Sarsgaard – Jackie
4. Kyle Chandler – Manchester by the Sea
5. Oscar Isaac – The Promise

Next in line: 6. Jeremy Renner – Story of Your Life 7. Adam Driver – Silence 8. Aaron Eckhart – Sully 9. J.K. Simmons – La La Land 10. Michael Shannon – Loving

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Laura Dern – The Founder
2. Kristen Stewart – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
4. Naomi Harris – Collateral Beauty
5. Shailene Woodley – Snowden

Next in line: 6. Rachel Weisz – The Light Between Oceans 7. Jennifer Jason Leigh – LBJ 8. Laura Linney – Sully 9. Gretchen Mol – Manchester by the Sea 10. Kate Winslet – Collateral Beauty

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Manchester by the Sea
2. La La Land
3. Passengers
4. Loving
5. The Birth of a Nation

Next in line: 6. Jackie 7. Collateral Beauty 8. The Founder 9. The Nice Guys 10. LBJ

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Light Between Oceans
2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Silence
4. War Machine
5. Sully

Next in line: 6. The Zookeeper’s Wife 7. Story of Your Life 8. Nocturnal Animals 9. The Lost City of Z 10. Snowden

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Zootopia
2. Finding Dory
3. The Secret Life of Pets
4. Moana
5. Storks

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Silence
2. The Lost City of Z
3. Passengers
4. La La Land
5. The Light Between Oceans

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Silence
2. La La Land
3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
4. Manchester by the Sea
5. The Circle

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Silence
2. The Light Between Oceans
3. Alice Through the Looking Glass
4. The Birth of a Nation
5. The Zookeeper’s Wife

BEST FILM EDITING

1. La La Land
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Silence
4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
5. Jason Bourne

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Alice Through the Looking Glass
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3. Silence

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2. La La Land
3. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
5. Jason Bourne

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2. La La Land
3. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
5. Jason Bourne

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
2. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
3. The BFG
4. Independence Day: Resurgence
5. Midnight Special

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Story of Your Life
2. The Light Between Oceans
3. Finding Dory
4. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice
5. The Birth of a Nation

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

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BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

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BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

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BEST ANIMATED SHORT

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BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

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BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

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Stay tuned for potentially an update to these way too early predictions next month!

About Joey Magidson

A graduate of Stony Brook University (where he studied Cinema and Cultural Studies), resides in Brooklyn, New York. He contributes to several other film-related websites and is a member of the Broadcast Film Critics Association.

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