Hollywood Contenders: New Oscar Predictions for July

You knew these were coming. Predictions are probably my favorite part of this job, so obviously I was going to oblige, as always. This is a fun one too, as it’s the first update for the second half of the year. 2016 is taking a turn now, moving through the summer blockbuster movie season, with awards season and Oscar bait only a few months away. Those films are really what the Academy will focus on, so that’s where my attention is today. There’s been some definite movement, which you’ll see below, making for a slate of predicted nominees that doesn’t 100% resemble the last few that I’ve done. It’s getting to be very exciting times, ladies and gentlemen…

Two of the more notable things that have happened since last time around have been the facts that Live by Night potentially has entered the race, while The Zookeeper’s Wife left. Factor those in with baity Trailers for La La Land as well as Loving and you have the makings of some awards season buzz. La La Land is continuing to make a big play for the juggernaut spot of the predictions, so keep that in mind. I also have tried to figure out the technical categories, as well as a new look at things few are thinking about, such as Best Documentary Feature and Best Foreign Language Feature. It makes for something to think about, at least. Plenty more will change next month too, so this is clearly just placeholder stuff for the most part. Enjoy it though, obviously.

Here now are my most up to date Academy Award predictions:

BEST PICTURE

1. La La Land
2. Silence
3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
4. Manchester by the Sea
5. Loving
6. The Birth of a Nation
7. Live by Night
8. Lion
9. Passengers
10. Nocturnal Animals

Next in line: 11. Arrival 12. War Machine 13. Fences 14. The Light Between Oceans 15. Café Society 16. Collateral Beauty 17. The Founder 18. Bleed for This 19. Sully 20. The Lost City of Z 21. Allied 22. A United Kingdom 23. Rules Don’t Apply 24. Snowden 25. Hands of Stone

BEST DIRECTOR

1. Damien Chazelle – La La Land
2. Kenneth Lonergan – Manchester by the Sea
3, Ang Lee – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
4. Martin Scorsese – Silence
5. Ben Affleck – Live by Night

Next in line: 6. Jeff Nichols – Loving 7. Nate Parker – The Birth of a Nation 8. Morten Tyldum – Passengers 9. Tom Ford – Nocturnal Animals 10. Denis Villenueve – Arrival

BEST ACTOR

1. Casey Affleck – Manchester by the Sea
2. Ryan Gosling – La La Land (or The Nice Guys)
3. Michael Keaton – The Founder
4. Ben Affleck – Live by Night
5. Chris Pratt – Passengers

Next in line: 6. Tom Hanks – Sully 7. Joel Edgerton – Loving 8. Andrew Garfield – Silence 9. Will Smith – Collateral Beauty 10. Miles Teller – Bleed for This

BEST ACTRESS

1. Emma Stone – La La Land
2. Amy Adams – Nocturnal Animals (or Arrival)
3. Ruth Negga – Loving
4. Jennifer Lawrence – Passengers
5. Emily Blunt – The Girl on the Train

Next in line: 6. Viola Davis – Fences 7. Rosamund Pike – A United Kingdom 8. Alicia Vikander – The Light Between Oceans 9. Marion Cotillard – Allied 10. Meryl Streep – Florence Foster Jenkins

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1. Liam Neeson – Silence
2. Steve Martin – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Kyle Chandler – Manchester by the Sea
4. Oscar Isaac – The Promise
5. Craig Robinson – Morris from America

Next in line: 6. Jeremy Renner – Arrival 7. Adam Driver – Silence 8. Aaron Eckhart – Bleed for This or Sully 9. Jack Huston – The Yellow Birds 10. Glen Powell – Everybody Wants Some

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1. Kristen Stewart – Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk (or Café Society)
2. Michelle Williams – Manchester by the Sea
3. Rachel Weisz – The Light Between Oceans
4. Naomi Harris – Collateral Beauty
5. Jennifer Aniston – The Yellow Birds

Next in line: 6. Elle Fanning – Live by Night 7. Rebecca Ferguson – The Girl on the Train 8. Laura Dern – The Founder (or Wilson) 9. Laura Linney – Sully 10. Gretchen Mol – Manchester by the Sea

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1. Manchester by the Sea
2. La La Land
3. Loving
4. Passengers
5. The Birth of a Nation

Next in line: 6. Café Society 7. The Lobster 8. Collateral Beauty 9. The Nice Guys 10. Everybody Wants Some

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1. The Light Between Oceans
2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Silence
4. Nocturnal Animals
5. Live by Night

Next in line: 6. Arrival 7. Fences 8. The Lost City of Z 9. War Machine 10. The Circle

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1. Zootopia
2. The Little Prince
3. Finding Dory
4. Kubo and the Two Strings
5. Sausage Party

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1. Silence
2. Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
4. La La Land
5. Live by Night

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1. Silence
2. La La Land
3. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
4. Live by Night
5. Arrival

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1. Silence
2. La La Land
3. Alice Through the Looking Glass
4. Live by Night
5. The Birth of a Nation

BEST FILM EDITING

1. La La Land
2. Manchester by the Sea
3. Silence
4. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
5. Live by Night

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

1. Suicide Squad
2. Alice Through the Looking Glass
3. Star Trek Beyond

BEST SOUND MIXING

1. La La Land
2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Jason Bourne
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
5. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice

BEST SOUND EDITING

1. La La Land
2. Billy Lynn’s Long Halftime Walk
3. Jason Bourne
4. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
5. Deadpool

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1. Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
2. The BFG
3. Captain America: Civil War
4. The Jungle Book
5. Independence Day: Resurgence

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1. Arrival
2. The Light Between Oceans
3. Silence
4. Live by Night
5. The Birth of a Nation

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1. La La Land
2. Sing Street
3. Moana
4. Sausage Party
5. Tumbledown

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1. OJ: Made in America
2. Weiner
3. Time to Choose
4. Life, Animated
5. Zero Days

BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FEATURE

1. Toni Erdmann
2. Junction 48
3. The Salesman
4. Graduation
5. It’s Only the End of the World

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

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3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

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2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1. ???
2. ???
3. ???
4. ???
5. ???

Stay tuned for another update to these early Oscar predictions sometime over the course of the next month!